China
China’s Consumer Inflation Uptick Won’t Last Long
China’s consumer inflation edged up last month, fueled by rising food prices ahead of the Lunar New Year, while prices at the factory gate remained in deflationary territory where they’ve been for nearly four years. Economists say the uptick for CPI might be short-lived given that price pressures remain weak and deflation is still a risk for the world’s second-largest economy.
China’s consumer-price index rose 1.8% in January from a year earlier, the government’s statistics bureau reported Thursday. The rate is higher than December’s 1.6% rise. The producer-price index declined 5.3% in January from a year earlier, slightly better than expected. This compared with a 5.9% year-over-year drop in December.
Following are excerpts from economists’ views on Thursday’s inflation data, edited for style and length:
China’s consumer inflation is set to edge higher this year, as a sharp fall in the number of female pigs over the past year means pork prices, a big driver of food inflation, is likely to remain elevated even as an acceleration in monetary growth will stoke broader price pressures. The pick-up in consumer inflation in January was mostly seasonal as food prices jumped. In addition, with the sharp falls in the price of oil and other commodities a year ago now starting to drop out of year-on-year comparisons, both CPI and PPI will almost certainly rise further over the coming months. –Julian Evans-Pritchard, Capital Economics
The pick-up in China’s consumer inflation in January is unlikely to continue throughout the year as the acceleration is linked to China’s Spring Festival and won’t stop Beijing from loosening its monetary policy. Growth in China’s consumer price index will likely fall to around 1.2% in 2016 as inflationary pressures are tamed with the fading out of the festival factor. A smaller drop in the January producer price index was due to a low-base comparison with the previous year when oil and other commodity prices dropped sharply. The PPI, which has been falling for nearly four years, will show some further improvement, but is still unlikely to turn positive this year. The annual PPI is likely to drop 4% from a year earlier. –Yan Ling, China Merchants Securities
China’s higher food prices in January is only temporary and the country will likely continue to face deflationary pressure this year. Both vegetable and pork prices reported double-digit year-on-year growth in January ahead of the Lunar New Year, and seasonal effects contributed 0.37 percentage points to headline inflation. But inflation should start retreating in March, giving room to China to conduct further monetary policy easing. The central bank is likely to lower the banks’ reserve ratios by 50 basis points in the first quarter. –Li-Gang Liu and Louis Lam, ANZ Research
–Compiled by Pei Li
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Business
Gordonstoun Severs Connections with Business Led by Individual Accused of Espionage for China
Gordonstoun school severed ties with Hampton Group over espionage allegations against chairman Yang Tengbo. He denies involvement and claims to be a victim of political tensions between the UK and China.
Allegations Lead to School’s Decision
Gordonstoun School in Moray has cut ties with Hampton Group International after serious allegations surfaced regarding its chairman, Yang Tengbo, who is accused of being a spy for the Chinese government. Known by the alias "H6," Mr. Tengbo was involved in a deal that aimed to establish five new schools in China affiliated with Gordonstoun. However, the recent allegations compelled the school to terminate their agreement.
Public Denial and Legal Action
In response to the spying claims, Mr. Tengbo publicly revealed his identity, asserting that he has committed no wrongdoing. A close associate of Prince Andrew and a former Gordonstoun student himself, Mr. Tengbo has strenuously denied the accusations, stating that he is a target of the escalating tensions between the UK and China. He has claimed that his mistreatment is politically motivated.
Immigration Challenges and Legal Responses
Yang Tengbo, also known as Chris Yang, has faced additional challenges regarding his immigration status in the UK. After losing an appeal against a ban enacted last year, he reiterated his innocence, condemning media speculation while emphasizing his commitment to clear his name. Gordonstoun, on its part, stated its inability to divulge further details due to legal constraints.
Source : Gordonstoun cuts ties with business chaired by man accused of spying for China
Business
China Dismantles Prominent Uyghur Business Landmark in Xinjiang – Shia Waves
The Chinese government demolished the Rebiya Kadeer Trade Center in Xinjiang, affecting Uyghur culture and commerce, prompting criticism from activists amid concerns over cultural erasure and human rights violations.
Demolition of a Cultural Landmark
The Chinese government recently demolished the Rebiya Kadeer Trade Center in Urumqi, Xinjiang, a vital hub for Uyghur culture and commerce, as reported by VOA. This center, once inhabited by more than 800 predominantly Uyghur-owned businesses, has been deserted since 2009. Authorities forcibly ordered local business owners to vacate the premises before proceeding with the demolition, which took place without any public notice.
Condemnation from Activists
Uyghur rights activists have condemned this demolition, perceiving it as part of China’s broader strategy to undermine Uyghur identity and heritage. The event has sparked heightened international concern regarding China’s policies in Xinjiang, which have been characterized by allegations of mass detentions and cultural suppression, prompting claims of crimes against humanity.
Rebiya Kadeer’s Response
Rebiya Kadeer, the center’s namesake and a notable Uyghur rights advocate, criticized the demolition as a deliberate attempt to erase her legacy. Kadeer, who has been living in exile in the U.S. since her release from imprisonment in 2005, continues to advocate for Uyghur rights. She has expressed that her family members have suffered persecution due to her activism, while the Chinese government has yet to comment on the legal ramifications of the demolition.
Source : China Demolishes Uyghur Business Landmark in Xinjiang – Shia Waves
China
China Expands Nationwide Private Pension Scheme After Two-Year Pilot Program
China’s private pension scheme, previously piloted in 36 cities, will roll out nationwide on December 15, 2024, enabling workers to open tax-deferred accounts. The initiative aims to enhance retirement savings, address aging population challenges, and stimulate financial sector growth.
After a two-year pilot program, China has officially expanded its private pension scheme nationwide. Starting December 15, 2024, workers covered by urban employee basic pension insurance or urban-rural resident basic pension insurance across the country can participate in this supplementary pension scheme. This nationwide rollout represents a significant milestone in China’s efforts to build a comprehensive pension system, addressing the challenges of a rapidly aging population.
On December 12, 2024, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, together with four other departments including the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, announced the nationwide implementation of China’s private pension scheme effective December 15, 2024. The initiative extends eligibility to all workers enrolled in urban employee basic pension insurance or urban-rural resident basic pension insurance.
A notable development is the expansion of tax incentives for private pensions, previously limited to pilot cities, to a national scale. Participants can now enjoy these benefits across China, with government agencies collaborating to ensure seamless implementation and to encourage broad participation through these enhanced incentives.
China first introduced its private pension scheme in November 2022 as a pilot program covering 36 cities and regions, including major hubs like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xi’an, and Chengdu. Under the program, individuals were allowed to open tax-deferred private pension accounts, contributing up to RMB 12,000 (approximately $1,654) annually to invest in a range of retirement products such as bank deposits, mutual funds, commercial pension insurance, and wealth management products.
Read more about China’s private pension pilot program launched two years ago: China Officially Launches New Private Pension Scheme – Who Can Take Part?
The nationwide implementation underscores the Chinese government’s commitment to addressing demographic challenges and promoting economic resilience. By providing tax advantages and expanding access, the scheme aims to incentivize long-term savings and foster greater participation in personal retirement planning.
The reform is expected to catalyze growth in China’s financial and insurance sectors while offering individuals a reliable mechanism to enhance their retirement security.
This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support. |
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