Asean
World Bank Economist says Inflation a Concern
A World Bank economist in Thailand is warning even if tensions ease in the Middle East, oil prices will remain high due to high demand from China, India and other industrialized countries. High oil and commodity prices are contributing to inflation, which is now seen as a key concern in Thailand and throughout the region. In a monitoring report on the Thai economy, the World Bank says global oil prices, now near $110 a barrel, combined with inflation, pose a threat to the global economic recovery. International oil prices remain close to their highest levels since 2008. Global oil prices peaked at $147 a barrel in July 2007, before falling below $50 in late 2008. Fragile recovery The economies of the United States and the major industrialized countries in Europe are edging forward in what is still a fragile recovery after the 2008 – 2009 financial crisis. But World Bank country economist for Thailand, Frederico Gil Sander, says further increases in oil prices threaten recovery and spur inflation. “Inflation has become a key concern for policy markers both in Thailand and overseas,” noted Sander. “And the concerns about inflation are clearly related to the recent spike in oil prices. [And] we should not expect that oil prices are going to start declining very rapidly even if the situation in the Middle East is resolved. So the key message here is that we probably should not expect oil prices to decline very much – In fact they are likely to remain at relatively high levels.” Growing demand Sander said higher fuel prices were also due to growing demand from newly industrializing nations such as India and China. The rise in oil costs also coincides with higher agricultural commodity prices, although those increases boost economies in countries such as Thailand by lifting farm incomes and wage rates. Oil prices are also likely to be kept at high levels by increased demand from Japan, where damage from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami has led to the shutdown of one nuclear power facility. Around 30 percent of Japan’s energy needs are normally met by nuclear energy. The quake aftermath is likely to result in increasing demand for oil in Japan in the medium term. Economist Sander said further gains in oil prices could pose a real risk for the global economy and, by extension, the Thai economy. European economies, still recovering from the sovereign debt crisis, could have confidence undermined if economic adjustments again became more difficult. “If oil prices continue to increase that would have very negative implications for the global economy. The recovery in advanced economies is still relatively fragile,” Sander said. “Things seem to be getting better, but certainly if they are not hit by another very large spoke in oil prices the kind of positive developments in unemployment rates in the U.S. could be reversed.” Rising prices But the World Bank says Thailand is likely to weather concerns over higher prices for food and fuel during 2011. Growth is forecast at 3.7 percent, an upward revision due to demand for Thai exports and domestic consumption driven by higher incomes. But Sander says some foreign investors are staying on the sidelines to await the outcome of Thailand’s general election, expected in July, before making a final decision on new Thai-based investments.
A World Bank economist in Thailand is warning even if tensions ease in the Middle East, oil prices will remain high due to high demand from China, India and other industrialized countries. High oil and commodity prices are contributing to inflation, which is now seen as a key concern in Thailand and throughout the region.
In a monitoring report on the Thai economy, the World Bank says global oil prices, now near $110 a barrel, combined with inflation, pose a threat to the global economic recovery.
International oil prices remain close to their highest levels since 2008. Global oil prices peaked at $147 a barrel in July 2007, before falling below $50 in late 2008.
Fragile recovery
The economies of the United States and the major industrialized countries in Europe are edging forward in what is still a fragile recovery after the 2008 – 2009 financial crisis. But World Bank country economist for Thailand, Frederico Gil Sander, says further increases in oil prices threaten recovery and spur inflation.
“Inflation has become a key concern for policy markers both in Thailand and overseas,” noted Sander. “And the concerns about inflation are clearly related to the recent spike in oil prices. [And] we should not expect that oil prices are going to start declining very rapidly even if the situation in the Middle East is resolved. So the key message here is that we probably should not expect oil prices to decline very much – In fact they are likely to remain at relatively high levels.”
Growing demand
Sander said higher fuel prices were also due to growing demand from newly industrializing nations such as India and China. The rise in oil costs also coincides with higher agricultural commodity prices, although those increases boost economies in countries such as Thailand by lifting farm incomes and wage rates.
Oil prices are also likely to be kept at high levels by increased demand from Japan, where damage from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami has led to the shutdown of one nuclear power facility. Around 30 percent of Japan’s energy needs are normally met by nuclear energy. The quake aftermath is likely to result in increasing demand for oil in Japan in the medium term.
Economist Sander said further gains in oil prices could pose a real risk for the global economy and, by extension, the Thai economy. European economies, still recovering from the sovereign debt crisis, could have confidence undermined if economic adjustments again became more difficult.
“If oil prices continue to increase that would have very negative implications for the global economy. The recovery in advanced economies is still relatively fragile,” Sander said. “Things seem to be getting better, but certainly if they are not hit by another very large spoke in oil prices the kind of positive developments in unemployment rates in the U.S. could be reversed.”
Rising prices
But the World Bank says Thailand is likely to weather concerns over higher prices for food and fuel during 2011. Growth is forecast at 3.7 percent, an upward revision due to demand for Thai exports and domestic consumption driven by higher incomes.
But Sander says some foreign investors are staying on the sidelines to await the outcome of Thailand’s general election, expected in July, before making a final decision on new Thai-based investments.
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World Bank Economist says Inflation a Concern
Asean
Deadly Floods and Landslides Strike Indonesia and Thailand – Vietnam Plus
At least seven people were killed, two others were injured and some were likely to be missing after flash floods and landslides hit the Indonesian eastern province of Maluku on the morning of August 25, according to the locality’s disaster management and mitigation office.
Heavy rainfall, which began on August 24, has triggered the disasters in Ternate city. Many local residents are in urgent need of support, authorities said.
Soldiers, police, local search and rescue personnel, disaster management staff, and volunteers are all involved in the ongoing rescue efforts, which include evacuating those trapped by the landslides and recovering materials from homes swept away by the floods.
Meanwhile in Thailand, local authorities reported that the death toll from a landslide in the popular resort province of Phuket on August 23 has risen to 13, including a Russian couple.
Source : Floods, landslides kill many in Indonesia, Thailand – Vietnam Plus
Asean
Tug of War in Southeast Asia: Can ASEAN-China Dialogue Shift the Scales Toward Peace? – An Analysis
The ASEAN-China dialogue is vital for regional stability, addressing economic cooperation and security challenges, particularly in the South China Sea, amidst significant geopolitical complexities and ongoing territorial disputes.
ASEAN-China Dialogue: A Path Towards Cooperation
The ASEAN-China dialogue plays a pivotal role in Southeast Asia’s diplomacy, fostering economic collaboration while addressing security challenges. Despite advances, particularly in managing tensions in the South China Sea, significant barriers remain to achieving lasting peace and stability in the region. ASEAN’s capacity to maintain its unity and centrality is crucial amidst complex power dynamics involving China and other global players.
Navigating Tensions and Economic Relations
A pressing concern within this dialogue is the South China Sea territorial disputes, which involve multiple ASEAN states and China. The militarization of the area raises alarm among regional stakeholders, necessitating urgent negotiations for a Code of Conduct (COC) to manage conflicts. Additionally, the growing economic interdependence fostered by initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) strengthens ASEAN-China ties, yet it also raises concerns about potential political leverage influencing member states’ autonomy.
The Challenge of Regional Stability
While the ASEAN-China dialogue offers a framework for promoting peace, its effectiveness is conditioned by broader geopolitical contexts, including China’s rivalry with the United States. The success of this dialogue rests on sustaining a commitment to multilateralism and peaceful dispute resolution. As ASEAN adapts to these complex dynamics, it must reinforce its unity and cooperative strategies, ensuring the region’s stability amid evolving challenges.
Source : Tug Of War In Southeast Asia: Will ASEAN-China Dialogue Tip The Balance Towards Peace? – Analysis
Asean
Cambodia Invites Business Leaders to Join the 21st China-ASEAN Expo in Nanning
Cambodia invites businesspeople to the 21st China-ASEAN Expo in Nanning, promoting trade and investment with incentives like hotel coupons and networking opportunities in various sectors.
Cambodia Invites Participation in CAEXPO 2024
Cambodia is actively encouraging business leaders, investors, and service providers to participate in the upcoming 21st China-ASEAN Expo (CAEXPO), set to take place from September 24-28 in Nanning, China. According to a Ministry of Commerce announcement, CAEXPO serves as a vital platform for trade and investment collaborations between ASEAN nations and China.
To facilitate Cambodian participation, the Ministry invites interested individuals to apply as Trade Visitors by August 31, 2024. Participants will benefit from hotel coupons, dining vouchers, and shuttle services to the expo venue. Furthermore, attendees can engage in business matchmaking in sectors such as food processing, digital technology, and renewable energy products.
Kin Phea, from the Royal Academy of Cambodia, emphasized the advancements in China-ASEAN relations, particularly concerning economic cooperation, tourism, and cultural exchanges. He noted that both sides have become each other’s largest trading partners, enhancing collaboration through the Belt and Road initiative, focusing on infrastructure and sustainable development.
Source : Cambodia encourages businesspeople to partake in 21st China-ASEAN Expo in Nanning
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