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The potential role of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

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Author: Andrew Elek, ANU

China’s president, Xi Jinping, announced the creation of an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) just before the October 2013 APEC meeting in Bali. If the new bank is managed professionally to finance commercially viable investments in economic infrastructure, it can begin to correct a very significant failure of global financial markets.

At present, despite very low interest rates, as Mahendra Siregar says, huge gaps in infrastructure coexist with a comparably massive accumulation of savings and under-used global economic capacity. There is vast unmet demand for productive economic infrastructure, especially in the emerging economies of Asia. In 2011, the OECD estimated that global infrastructure requirements over the next two decades will cost around US$50 trillion. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates that developing Asian economies need to invest US$8 trillion from 2010 to 2020, just to keep pace with expected infrastructure needs. The supply of savings, much of which is generated in Asia, is more than adequate to begin to fill some of the demand for infrastructure.

Yet it will not be easy to steer more savings towards infrastructure, either globally or in Asia. The investments needed are typically for public goods, which are large-scale, long term and illiquid, and present challenging cost-recovery problems. The constraints on investment, especially attracting private investment in infrastructure, include problems of project selection and preparation, implementation risks, the need to translate sound economic rates of return into financial returns, and intermediation challenges.

These formidable problems can be overcome if political leaders and international financial institutions are determined to do so, and APEC leaders are now committed to improving connectivity in the Asia Pacific. China certainly needs far better links to its neighbours: the supply of cheap factory labour from the countryside is drying up and labour costs are rising rapidly, creating an urgent need to re-orient supply chains. The opening of Myanmar makes it possible to meet this need and allow more economies at various stages of development to participate in international production networks in line with their evolving comparative advantage.

There is room for a new development bank, specialised in financing large-scale economic infrastructure on commercial terms, working alongside existing multilateral development banks, including the World Bank and the ADB. These well-established institutions have the expertise to lend a lot more for infrastructure, but have moved in a different direction. Net lending by multilateral development banks on commercial terms has been negative in five of the last ten years, including 2011 and 2012. The World Bank and the ADB are now focusing on concessional lending and knowledge sharing with low-income countries, leaving an important niche to be filled by a new financial institution.

Following China’s decision to set up the AIIB, consultations are likely to take place around the Asia Pacific, encouraging governments as well as private investors to become foundation shareholders. Potential investors in the AIIB will want to be assured that the management of the new bank will be of high quality, preferably selected on a competitive basis, and will be overseen by independent, commercially experienced directors. Sound procedures for project selection, designing financing plans and tendering for project implementation can be based on those developed by existing multilateral development banks.

It should also be possible to clarify that the AIIB will operate on commercial principles. Subsidising the capital costs of some infrastructure can be justified by externalities that are created, but these subsidies should be injected by the governments of the economies which expect to reap the benefits, not by the new bank. The world does not need yet another window for overseas development assistance.

If it is carefully set up and well managed, the AIIB should be able to attract shareholding from Asia Pacific governments committed to their new APEC Framework on Connectivity, as well as from some private sources. If APEC governments on both sides of the Pacific participate in the new infrastructure development bank, the AIIB could be transformed into an Asia Pacific Infrastructure Investment Bank, which could invest in projects to upgrade connectivity among all Asia Pacific economies.

The composition of foundation shareholders and the official launch of operations could be announced at the 2014 meeting of APEC leaders in China. Early initiatives could be to finance a high-quality APEC Master Plan on Connectivity and improved trade logistics in the region — for example by lending to improve some of the region’s ports and airports.

To have a significant impact on the need for economic infrastructure, the AIIB would have to expand as rapidly as it can acquire the necessary expertise. In time, its impact on the region could be greater than the ADB or the World Bank, depending on whether those institutions decide to rediscover their capacity to finance productive infrastructure on commercial terms. The AIIB will create new competition for the World Bank and the ADB, but the new bank will also have a strong incentive to cooperate with them. Tapping into the expertise of experienced development banks is the most efficient way, and perhaps the only way, to build the capacity of the new bank to assess and implement projects successfully.

Andrew Elek is Research Associate at the Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University. He was the inaugural Chair of APEC Senior Officials in 1989.

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The potential role of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

Asean

Deadly Floods and Landslides Strike Indonesia and Thailand – Vietnam Plus

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At least seven people were killed, two others were injured and some were likely to be missing after flash floods and landslides hit the Indonesian eastern province of Maluku on the morning of August 25, according to the locality’s disaster management and mitigation office.

Heavy rainfall, which began on August 24, has triggered the disasters in Ternate city. Many local residents are in urgent need of support, authorities said.

Soldiers, police, local search and rescue personnel, disaster management staff, and volunteers are all involved in the ongoing rescue efforts, which include evacuating those trapped by the landslides and recovering materials from homes swept away by the floods.

Meanwhile in Thailand, local authorities reported that the death toll from a landslide in the popular resort province of Phuket on August 23 has risen to 13, including a Russian couple.


Source : Floods, landslides kill many in Indonesia, Thailand – Vietnam Plus

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Asean

Tug of War in Southeast Asia: Can ASEAN-China Dialogue Shift the Scales Toward Peace? – An Analysis

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The ASEAN-China dialogue is vital for regional stability, addressing economic cooperation and security challenges, particularly in the South China Sea, amidst significant geopolitical complexities and ongoing territorial disputes.


ASEAN-China Dialogue: A Path Towards Cooperation

The ASEAN-China dialogue plays a pivotal role in Southeast Asia’s diplomacy, fostering economic collaboration while addressing security challenges. Despite advances, particularly in managing tensions in the South China Sea, significant barriers remain to achieving lasting peace and stability in the region. ASEAN’s capacity to maintain its unity and centrality is crucial amidst complex power dynamics involving China and other global players.

Navigating Tensions and Economic Relations

A pressing concern within this dialogue is the South China Sea territorial disputes, which involve multiple ASEAN states and China. The militarization of the area raises alarm among regional stakeholders, necessitating urgent negotiations for a Code of Conduct (COC) to manage conflicts. Additionally, the growing economic interdependence fostered by initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) strengthens ASEAN-China ties, yet it also raises concerns about potential political leverage influencing member states’ autonomy.

The Challenge of Regional Stability

While the ASEAN-China dialogue offers a framework for promoting peace, its effectiveness is conditioned by broader geopolitical contexts, including China’s rivalry with the United States. The success of this dialogue rests on sustaining a commitment to multilateralism and peaceful dispute resolution. As ASEAN adapts to these complex dynamics, it must reinforce its unity and cooperative strategies, ensuring the region’s stability amid evolving challenges.

Source : Tug Of War In Southeast Asia: Will ASEAN-China Dialogue Tip The Balance Towards Peace? – Analysis

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Cambodia Invites Business Leaders to Join the 21st China-ASEAN Expo in Nanning

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Cambodia invites businesspeople to the 21st China-ASEAN Expo in Nanning, promoting trade and investment with incentives like hotel coupons and networking opportunities in various sectors.


Cambodia Invites Participation in CAEXPO 2024

Cambodia is actively encouraging business leaders, investors, and service providers to participate in the upcoming 21st China-ASEAN Expo (CAEXPO), set to take place from September 24-28 in Nanning, China. According to a Ministry of Commerce announcement, CAEXPO serves as a vital platform for trade and investment collaborations between ASEAN nations and China.

To facilitate Cambodian participation, the Ministry invites interested individuals to apply as Trade Visitors by August 31, 2024. Participants will benefit from hotel coupons, dining vouchers, and shuttle services to the expo venue. Furthermore, attendees can engage in business matchmaking in sectors such as food processing, digital technology, and renewable energy products.

Kin Phea, from the Royal Academy of Cambodia, emphasized the advancements in China-ASEAN relations, particularly concerning economic cooperation, tourism, and cultural exchanges. He noted that both sides have become each other’s largest trading partners, enhancing collaboration through the Belt and Road initiative, focusing on infrastructure and sustainable development.

Source : Cambodia encourages businesspeople to partake in 21st China-ASEAN Expo in Nanning

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