China
Economists React: PBOC Lifts Interest Rates
China’s central bank raised benchmark interest rates Tuesday, a national holiday, lifting one-year yuan lending rate and the one-year yuan deposit rate by 0.25 percentage point each as the country continues to battle inflation. Analysts weigh in: The timing of today’s interest rate hike in China is something of a surprise given more dovish comments in recent days from senior officials, but the rate move is not entirely unexpected. The announcement may cause jitters about the impact tightening will have on Chinese growth. However these should not be overplayed. The latest increases of 25 basis points for one-year deposits and loans are in line with the gradual policy tightening that has been underway over the last few months and will not do much to slow the economy. The benchmark one-year lending rate now stands at 6.31%, still low relative to the pace of economic growth. The constraint on credit growth is the amount that banks can lend rather than the rates they charge. – Mark Williams, Capital Economics This rate hike suggests that the March CPI that is to be released early next week may have surprised to the upside. Our current CPI forecast is 5.2% year-on-year for March. It also suggests that Chinese authorities are confident in the sustainability of underlying growth momentum… This rate hike underscores once again the front-loaded monetary tightening, which, together with the rather substantial slowdown in money and credit growth so far this year, bodes well for peaking of the headline inflation rate by mid-year, in our view. – Qing Wang, Morgan Stanley We believe the magnitude of the overall policy tightening package since the start of the year has been large enough to cool down aggregate demand growth sufficiently to lower underlying inflationary pressures… Given the nature of the most of the tightening measures tend to be administratively and quantitatively based, price-based tools which include interest rate hikes and currency appreciation should be welcomed as we believe they tend to be more efficient in resource allocation. Having said that, we believe the 25-basis point hike is more a signaling tool than anything else because of its small magnitude… Going forward, we expect the government to broadly maintain its tightening policy stance in the first half of 2011 given the expected elevated year-on-year CPI, though there might be some subtle adjustments as underlying inflationary pressures come off. – Helen Qiao and Yu Song, Goldman Sachs Today’s rate hike suggests three things to us. First, together with one reserve requirement ratio hike on 18 March, today’s move signals China’s tightening path is less affected by Japan’s…nuclear crisis. Second, headline inflation is likely to be above 5% in March. Third, China’s monetary policy may lean towards front loaded tightening in the first half of the year… Thanks to the strong growth momentum, we expect China’s growth to remain strong in the first quarter at 9.7%. However the growth pace is likely to slow gradually in the next few quarters as a result of tightening measures. Therefore, it may make more sense for China to tighten sooner rather than later to fight inflation when the growth rate is still high. – Tommy Xie, OCBC –compiled by Josh Chin. Follow him on Twitter @joshchin .
China’s central bank raised benchmark interest rates Tuesday, a national holiday, lifting one-year yuan lending rate and the one-year yuan deposit rate by 0.25 percentage point each as the country continues to battle inflation. Analysts weigh in: The timing of today’s interest rate hike in China is something of a surprise given more dovish comments in recent days from senior officials, but the rate move is not entirely unexpected. The announcement may cause jitters about the impact tightening will have on Chinese growth. However these should not be overplayed. The latest increases of 25 basis points for one-year deposits and loans are in line with the gradual policy tightening that has been underway over the last few months and will not do much to slow the economy. The benchmark one-year lending rate now stands at 6.31%, still low relative to the pace of economic growth. The constraint on credit growth is the amount that banks can lend rather than the rates they charge. – Mark Williams, Capital Economics This rate hike suggests that the March CPI that is to be released early next week may have surprised to the upside. Our current CPI forecast is 5.2% year-on-year for March. It also suggests that Chinese authorities are confident in the sustainability of underlying growth momentum… This rate hike underscores once again the front-loaded monetary tightening, which, together with the rather substantial slowdown in money and credit growth so far this year, bodes well for peaking of the headline inflation rate by mid-year, in our view. – Qing Wang, Morgan Stanley We believe the magnitude of the overall policy tightening package since the start of the year has been large enough to cool down aggregate demand growth sufficiently to lower underlying inflationary pressures… Given the nature of the most of the tightening measures tend to be administratively and quantitatively based, price-based tools which include interest rate hikes and currency appreciation should be welcomed as we believe they tend to be more efficient in resource allocation. Having said that, we believe the 25-basis point hike is more a signaling tool than anything else because of its small magnitude… Going forward, we expect the government to broadly maintain its tightening policy stance in the first half of 2011 given the expected elevated year-on-year CPI, though there might be some subtle adjustments as underlying inflationary pressures come off. – Helen Qiao and Yu Song, Goldman Sachs Today’s rate hike suggests three things to us. First, together with one reserve requirement ratio hike on 18 March, today’s move signals China’s tightening path is less affected by Japan’s…nuclear crisis. Second, headline inflation is likely to be above 5% in March. Third, China’s monetary policy may lean towards front loaded tightening in the first half of the year… Thanks to the strong growth momentum, we expect China’s growth to remain strong in the first quarter at 9.7%. However the growth pace is likely to slow gradually in the next few quarters as a result of tightening measures. Therefore, it may make more sense for China to tighten sooner rather than later to fight inflation when the growth rate is still high. – Tommy Xie, OCBC –compiled by Josh Chin. Follow him on Twitter @joshchin .
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Economists React: PBOC Lifts Interest Rates
Business
China’s Golden Rooster Film Festival Kicks Off in Xiamen – Thailand Business News
The 2024 China Golden Rooster and Hundred Flowers Film Festival began in Xiamen on Nov 13, featuring awards, cultural projects worth 31.63 billion yuan, and fostering international film collaborations.
2024 China Golden Rooster and Hundred Flowers Film Festival Opens
The 2024 China Golden Rooster and Hundred Flowers Film Festival commenced in Xiamen, Fujian province, on November 13. This prestigious event showcases the top film awards in China and spans four days, concluding with the China Golden Rooster Awards ceremony on November 16.
The festival features various film exhibitions, including the Golden Rooster Mainland Film Section and the Golden Rooster International Film Section. These showcases aim to highlight the achievements of Chinese-language films and foster global cultural exchanges within the film industry.
On the festival’s opening day, a significant milestone was reached with the signing of 175 cultural and film projects, valued at 31.63 billion yuan ($4.36 billion). Additionally, the International Film and Television Copyright Service Platform was launched, furthering the globalization of Chinese film and television properties.
Source : China’s Golden Rooster film festival opens in Xiamen – Thailand Business News
China
Italy and China New DTA Set to Take Effect in 2025: Important Changes and Implications
Italy ratified an upgraded Double Tax Agreement (DTA) with China, effective in 2025, to reduce tax burdens, prevent evasion, and enhance investment. The DTA introduces modern provisions aligned with international standards, targeting tax avoidance and improving dispute resolution for Italian businesses.
Italy recently ratified the upgraded Double Tax Agreement (DTA), which will finally take effect in 2025. This agreement was signed in 2019 and was designed to reduce tax burdens, prevent tax evasion, and promote Italian investment in China.
On November 5, 2024, Italy’s Chamber of Deputies gave final approval to the ratification of the 2019 Double Tax Agreement (DTA) between Italy and China (hereinafter, referred to as the “new DTA”).
Set to take effect in 2025, the new DTA is aimed at eliminating double taxation on income, preventing tax evasion, and creating a more favorable environment for Italian businesses operating in China.
The ratification bill for the new DTA consists of four articles, with Article 3 detailing the financial provisions. Starting in 2025, the implementation costs of the agreement are estimated at €10.86 million (US$11.49 million) annually. These costs will be covered by a reduction in the special current expenditure fund allocated in the Italian Ministry of Economy’s 2024 budget, partially drawing from the reserve for the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
During the parliamentary debate, Deputy Foreign Minister Edmondo Cirielli emphasized the new DTA’s strategic importance, noting that the agreement redefines Italy’s economic and financial framework with China. Cirielli highlighted that the DTA not only strengthens relations with the Chinese government but also supports Italian businesses, which face increasing competition as other European countries have already established double taxation agreements with China. This ratification, therefore, is part of a broader series of diplomatic and economic engagements, leading up to a forthcoming visit by the President of the Italian Republic to China, underscoring Italy’s commitment to fostering bilateral relations and supporting its businesses in China’s complex market landscape.
The newly signed DTA between Italy and China, introduces several modernized provisions aligned with international tax frameworks. Replacing the 1986 DTA, the agreement adopts measures from the OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Project and the OECD Multilateral Instrument (MLI), targeting tax avoidance and improving dispute resolution.
The Principal Purpose Test (PPT) clause, inspired by BEPS, is one of the central updates in the new DTA, working to prevent treaty abuse. This clause allows tax benefits to be denied if one of the primary purposes of a transaction or arrangement was to gain a tax advantage, a move to counter tax evasion through treaty-shopping.
| This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support. |
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Business
China’s New Home Prices Stabilize After 17-Month Decline Following Support Measures
China’s new home prices fell for the 17th month in October, declining 0.5% from September, but slowing, indicating potential market stabilization amid supportive measures. Second-hand home prices showed mixed trends.
Decline in China’s Home Prices Stabilizes
China’s new home prices continued to decline in October for the 17th consecutive month, although the drop showed signs of slowing. Recent support measures from Beijing appear to be inching the market toward stabilization, as evidenced by a lighter decline compared to earlier months.
Monthly and Yearly Comparisons
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, new home prices across 70 mainland cities fell by 0.5% from September, marking the smallest decrease in seven months. Year-on-year, prices dropped by 6.2%, slightly worse than the September decline of 6.1%. In tier-1 cities like Beijing and Shanghai, prices decreased by 0.2%, a smaller fall than 0.5% in the previous month.
Second-Hand Home Market Trends
Second-hand home prices in tier-1 cities experienced a 0.4% increase in October, reversing a 13-month downward trend. Conversely, tier-2 cities observed a 0.4% drop in second-hand prices, while tier-3 cities faced a similar 0.5% decline. Overall, recent trends indicate a potential stabilization in China’s property market.
Source : China’s new home prices slow 17-month decline after support measures kick in
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