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Pew: China Not Ripe for Revolution

With artist Ai Weiwei the latest dissident to be officially detained or simply disappear into the widening maw of China’s security crackdown following anonymous online calls for a “Jasmine Revolution,” a new report from the Pew Research Center bolsters arguments that Beijing is overreacting. Mr. Ai, an outspoken critic of the Chinese government, was taken into custody at the Beijing airport Sunday as he was about to board a flight for Hong Kong. He is the highest-profile figure yet to be caught up in a wave of arrests and detentions that many observers have interpreted as a preemptive strike against the possibility of Egypt-style popular unrest. Ever since Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak was toppled by a largely peaceful revolution in February, setting off speculation that the same could happen to leaders in Beijing, economists and skeptical China watchers have been at pains to point out that Chinese people as a whole are happier with their lives than Egyptians. The Pew report , based on the organization’s Global Attitudes survey , illustrates just how large that happiness differential is. The report starts off acknowledging that it’s difficult to get a clear read on the appetite for democracy in China, as: “Unlike in the Arab world, where opinion surveys have demonstrated public support for such basic democratic rights as free elections and freedom of speech, in China it is not possible to ask citizens about their views on democracy. The government won’t allow it.” But Pew argues that measuring personal and economic satisfaction, subjects that are allowed to be raised in surveys, enables some comparison. According to Pew’s survey, conducted in the spring of 2010, 87% of Chinese respondents said they were satisfied with the way things were going in their country, Pew says. Just 28% of Egyptians said the same, compared with 69% who were dissatisfied with their country’s direction. In both countries these findings were closely linked to views on the economy: 91% of Chinese characterized their country’s economic situation as good, compared with only 20% of Egyptians who said the same. The number of Egyptians describing their country’s economic situation as good fell by more than half, from 53% in 2007. The contrast was even more apparent, Pew says, when examining personal satisfaction over time. In the 2010 survey, the organization asked survey respondents to place themselves on a zero-to-10 scale it called the “ladder of life,” with zero representing the worst possible life and 10 representing the best. By this measure, China and Egypt scored almost identically, with 63% of Egyptians and 62% of Chinese rating their lives between a four and a six ( PDF ). (Americans appeared vastly more satisfied, with 64% giving their lives scores between seven and 10.) The difference appeared when respondents were asked to judge how far their lives had come and how far they were likely to progress in the future. Nearly two thirds of Chinese people said their lives had improved over the past five years, according to Pew, while an even larger 74% said they expected their lives would be better in another five. By contrast, only 18% of Egyptians felt their lives had improved over the past five years, while 40% expected things would get worse in the future. “The prevailing feeling in Egypt was one of losing ground,” the report says. “In fact, between 2007 and 2010, the number of Egyptians reporting a low quality of life doubled, suggesting that in the lead-up to this year’s popular revolt frustrations may have been mounting not only with respect to democratic yearnings, but in terms of personal aspirations.” In a blog post written not long before Hosni Mubarak stepped down, New Yorker China correspondent Evan Osnos, who lived in Cairo for two years as a reporter for the Chicago Tribune, described Egypt prior to the protests as “a nation in suspended animation” where “the dominant national characteristic was sclerosis.” China, he argued, is the opposite, “a place of constant, dizzying, churning change.” One recent change, which the Pew report doesn’t capture, is China’s rising inflation, which has been hovering stubbornly around 5% for the past several months. As one of China’s banks unwittingly pointed out when it posted an old newspaper clipping on its microblog last month, inflation was a pressing concern in China in the lead up to the 1989 protests on Tiananmen Square. Rising prices have led to some public grumbling over the ineffectiveness of government tightening measures, particularly when it comes to housing. That might have a damping effect on Chinese optimism about the future, although it bears noting that inflation in China has a long way to go before it matches the 20% clip it achieved in 1989. The Pew report acknowledges that it would be naïve to assume that economic growth alone is sufficient to ward off the sort of public rage that has roiled regimes in the Middle East. Indeed, Pew says, a robust economy might conceivably be part of the problem: “Arguably, widespread optimism in China could inflate popular expectations, which if unmet could lead to personal or social frustration.” Another segment of the organization’s 2010 survey found 80% of respondents in China supporting the idea that the environment should be protected even at the expense of jobs and economic growth – a possible sign that Chinese people have grown wealthy enough to turn their attention to issues other than their own financial situation. That said, Pew seems to believe China’s leaders don’t have to worry about facing a revolution any time soon. “It would be wrong to assume that the Chinese public is indifferent to the performance of their national or local governments,” the report says. “But the Chinese public’s overall state of mind is very distant from the pessimism that helped set the stage for massive protests in Egypt.” –Josh Chin. Follow him on Twitter @joshchin

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With artist Ai Weiwei the latest dissident to be officially detained or simply disappear into the widening maw of China’s security crackdown following anonymous online calls for a “Jasmine Revolution,” a new report from the Pew Research Center bolsters arguments that Beijing is overreacting. Mr. Ai, an outspoken critic of the Chinese government, was taken into custody at the Beijing airport Sunday as he was about to board a flight for Hong Kong. He is the highest-profile figure yet to be caught up in a wave of arrests and detentions that many observers have interpreted as a preemptive strike against the possibility of Egypt-style popular unrest. Ever since Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak was toppled by a largely peaceful revolution in February, setting off speculation that the same could happen to leaders in Beijing, economists and skeptical China watchers have been at pains to point out that Chinese people as a whole are happier with their lives than Egyptians. The Pew report , based on the organization’s Global Attitudes survey , illustrates just how large that happiness differential is. The report starts off acknowledging that it’s difficult to get a clear read on the appetite for democracy in China, as: “Unlike in the Arab world, where opinion surveys have demonstrated public support for such basic democratic rights as free elections and freedom of speech, in China it is not possible to ask citizens about their views on democracy. The government won’t allow it.” But Pew argues that measuring personal and economic satisfaction, subjects that are allowed to be raised in surveys, enables some comparison. According to Pew’s survey, conducted in the spring of 2010, 87% of Chinese respondents said they were satisfied with the way things were going in their country, Pew says. Just 28% of Egyptians said the same, compared with 69% who were dissatisfied with their country’s direction. In both countries these findings were closely linked to views on the economy: 91% of Chinese characterized their country’s economic situation as good, compared with only 20% of Egyptians who said the same. The number of Egyptians describing their country’s economic situation as good fell by more than half, from 53% in 2007. The contrast was even more apparent, Pew says, when examining personal satisfaction over time. In the 2010 survey, the organization asked survey respondents to place themselves on a zero-to-10 scale it called the “ladder of life,” with zero representing the worst possible life and 10 representing the best. By this measure, China and Egypt scored almost identically, with 63% of Egyptians and 62% of Chinese rating their lives between a four and a six ( PDF ). (Americans appeared vastly more satisfied, with 64% giving their lives scores between seven and 10.) The difference appeared when respondents were asked to judge how far their lives had come and how far they were likely to progress in the future. Nearly two thirds of Chinese people said their lives had improved over the past five years, according to Pew, while an even larger 74% said they expected their lives would be better in another five. By contrast, only 18% of Egyptians felt their lives had improved over the past five years, while 40% expected things would get worse in the future. “The prevailing feeling in Egypt was one of losing ground,” the report says. “In fact, between 2007 and 2010, the number of Egyptians reporting a low quality of life doubled, suggesting that in the lead-up to this year’s popular revolt frustrations may have been mounting not only with respect to democratic yearnings, but in terms of personal aspirations.” In a blog post written not long before Hosni Mubarak stepped down, New Yorker China correspondent Evan Osnos, who lived in Cairo for two years as a reporter for the Chicago Tribune, described Egypt prior to the protests as “a nation in suspended animation” where “the dominant national characteristic was sclerosis.” China, he argued, is the opposite, “a place of constant, dizzying, churning change.” One recent change, which the Pew report doesn’t capture, is China’s rising inflation, which has been hovering stubbornly around 5% for the past several months. As one of China’s banks unwittingly pointed out when it posted an old newspaper clipping on its microblog last month, inflation was a pressing concern in China in the lead up to the 1989 protests on Tiananmen Square. Rising prices have led to some public grumbling over the ineffectiveness of government tightening measures, particularly when it comes to housing. That might have a damping effect on Chinese optimism about the future, although it bears noting that inflation in China has a long way to go before it matches the 20% clip it achieved in 1989. The Pew report acknowledges that it would be naïve to assume that economic growth alone is sufficient to ward off the sort of public rage that has roiled regimes in the Middle East. Indeed, Pew says, a robust economy might conceivably be part of the problem: “Arguably, widespread optimism in China could inflate popular expectations, which if unmet could lead to personal or social frustration.” Another segment of the organization’s 2010 survey found 80% of respondents in China supporting the idea that the environment should be protected even at the expense of jobs and economic growth – a possible sign that Chinese people have grown wealthy enough to turn their attention to issues other than their own financial situation. That said, Pew seems to believe China’s leaders don’t have to worry about facing a revolution any time soon. “It would be wrong to assume that the Chinese public is indifferent to the performance of their national or local governments,” the report says. “But the Chinese public’s overall state of mind is very distant from the pessimism that helped set the stage for massive protests in Egypt.” –Josh Chin. Follow him on Twitter @joshchin

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Pew: China Not Ripe for Revolution

Business

News Update: China’s Stimulus Falls Short; Sensex and Nifty Decline; Bitcoin Surges Over $82,000

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Asian markets showed mixed trends amid China’s stimulus measures and disappointing inflation data. Meanwhile, Indian equities remained stable, with mutual fund inflows rising. Bitcoin surged following Trump’s presidential win.


Business Hook Daily News Podcast

Good evening! Welcome to Business Hook’s daily news podcast. I’m Avni Raja, and today is November 11, 2024. Let’s dive into the day’s top business stories.

Market Reactions and Economic Data

Asian markets experienced a mixed session as investors digested new economic data and stimulus measures from China. The Chinese government announced a $1.4 trillion package targeting local government debt, although analysts deemed it underwhelming. October’s inflation rate of 0.3% fell short of estimates and declined for the second month in a row. As a result, the CSI 300 saw a slight gain, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped over 1.5%. In India, the Sensex closed below 74,500, and the Nifty ended above 24,100, with a majority of Nifty stocks declining.

Mutual Fund Inflows and Upcoming IPOs

There’s encouraging news in the mutual fund sector, with October seeing net inflows of 2.4 lakh crore rupees, reversing the previous month’s outflows. Record equity inflows have risen to nearly 42,000 crore rupees, reflecting robust domestic investor confidence. In the IPO space, LG Electronics prepares to raise $1.5 billion by listing its Indian arm, with banks like Axis Capital involved in the process, potentially leading to an IPO as early as 2025.

Cryptocurrency Surge

In cryptocurrency news, Bitcoin has achieved new highs, surpassing $82,000. This surge is attributed to Donald Trump’s recent presidential victory, which has favored cryptocurrencies compared to more cautious Democratic approaches. Experts speculate that Bitcoin could surpass $90,000 soon. That’s all for today’s wrap-up. Join us again tomorrow, and check out the Business Hook YouTube channel for more updates.

Source : News Wrap | China Stimulus Disappoints; Sensex & Nifty Slip; Bitcoin Soars Past $82,000

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China

China’s Import-Export Trends 2024-25: A Thorough Analysis of the Initial 10 Months

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China’s foreign trade statistics for October 2024 show exports surged 11.2% from last year, significantly boosting the trade surplus to RMB 679.1 billion. However, weak domestic demand led to a 1.2% month-on-month decline in imports and exports.


The recently released foreign trade statistics for October and the first 10 months of 2024 reveal significant trends in China’s import-export activities for 2024-25. We will explore these trends by examining the trading structure, methods, partners, products, and sectors involved.

On November 7, 2024, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) released statistics showing that China’s goods exports in October far exceeded expectations. Exports increased by 11.2 percent year-on-year in RMB terms and 12.7 percent in dollar terms, marking the largest expansion since March 2023.

In the first 10 months of 2024, the total value of China’s goods trade reached 36.02 trillion RMB (US$5.05 trillion), reflecting a 5.2 percent year-on-year increase. This includes 20.8 trillion RMB (US$2.89 trillion) in exports (up 6.7 percent) and 15.22 trillion RMB (US$2.09 trillion) in imports (up 3.2 percent). Notably, the trade surplus expanded by 17.6 percent, reaching 5.58 trillion RMB (US$770 billion).

In October, China’s total import and export value reached RMB 3.7 trillion (US$520 billion), marking a 4.6 percent year-on-year increase, which is nearly 4 percentage points higher than the growth rate in September. Exports amounted to RMB 2.19 trillion (US$305 billion), reflecting an 11.2 percent increase, while imports totaled RMB 1.51 trillion (US$210 billion), a 3.7 percent decline. The trade surplus for October was RMB 679.1 billion (US$95 billion).

The double-digit growth in exports for October can be attributed to various factors:

The strong performance in export growth and trade surplus in October indicates that foreign trade continues to contribute significantly to economic growth. Coupled with unexpected counter-cyclical policy measures domestically, this will further enhance market confidence in achieving annual economic targets.

However, it is important to note that imports and exports saw a month-on-month decline of 1.2 percent in October. This decline is primarily due to weak domestic demand, cautious import decisions by market participants, low prices for bulk commodities, and the impact of a higher comparison base from last year.


This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in ChinaHong KongVietnamSingapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support.

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Business

Henry Keswick: The Jardine Scion Who Transformed China’s Business Landscape

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Henry Keswick, 86, a key figure in Jardine Matheson, passed away as the U.S. awaited election results, amid heightened tensions in U.S.-China relations during Trump’s presidency.


Henry Keswick’s Legacy

HONG KONG — The world turned its attention to the U.S. presidential election as news broke of Henry Keswick’s passing at the age of 86. A fourth-generation member of the British conglomerate Jardine Matheson, Keswick had a profound influence on the company, which has deep roots in Asia.

Navigating Challenges

Keswick’s leadership spanned significant challenges, including a strained relationship between the U.S. and China, particularly as Donald Trump prepared for his return to the White House. Under his stewardship, Jardine Matheson navigated a complex landscape in retail and real estate that dovetailed with geopolitical shifts.

A Lasting Impact

His contributions to Jardine Matheson and the broader business community have left an indelible mark. As companies reposition themselves amidst evolving international dynamics, Keswick’s legacy will undoubtedly continue to shape the future of the conglomerate he led.

Source : Henry Keswick, the Jardines scion who razed then restored China business

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