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Charting China’s Economy: The Fourth Quarter

China’s economy has bounced back. A return to accelerating growth in the fourth quarter breaks seven straight quarters of declining growth and draws a line under concerns that the world’s second largest economy is heading for a hard landing. To engineer the rebound, China’s government turned again to boosting credit and investment spending. But beneath the surface, there were also signs a rebalancing toward consumption may be underway. China Real Time charts it out: Growth in gross domestic product accelerated to 7.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, up from 7.4% in the third. The sequential growth rate showed signs of stabilization, with annualized quarter-on-quarter growth at 8.2%, down from 8.7% in the third quarter. Investment bank economists continued to calculate their own quarter-on-quarter growth rate. Wang Tao, China economist at UBS, saw an even more positive picture, with growth accelerating to 8.6% in the fourth quarter from 8.0% in the third. Real economy indicators like electricity consumption, one of the measures premier in waiting Li Keqiang said he uses to track growth, and steel production, also pointed to a strengthening economy. For the year as a whole, GDP growth of 7.8% was down from 9.3% in 2011 and the slowest rate of growth since 1999. Ma Jiantang, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said there would be no return to the era of super rapid growth, and China should aim for something between 7% and 8%. One reason growth has slowed: a shrinking workforce. Mr. Ma said that China’s working age population shrank by 3.5 million in 2012. Off a total of more than 900 million that might not seem particularly alarming. But it signals an important turning point from an expanding to a contracting pool of workers. Key to the recovery – strong investment in the real estate and infrastructure sectors. After almost three years of strict controls, China’s real estate sector is showing signs of springing back to life. Sales had a strong quarter, with floor space sold rising 32% year-on-year in November. Sales for Vanke, China’s biggest developer by revenue, were also up more than 100% in December. Local government investment vehicles – the heroes of the 2009-10 stimulus, and the villain of subsequent concerns about bad debts and bridges to nowhere – were back on the stage. Investment in roads and railway picked up from lows earlier in the year. Manufacturers were less optimistic, with overcapacity and rising debts denting investment growth in the sector. Lan Shen, one of the China economists at Standard Chartered, notes that manufacturing investment decelerated to 16% year-on-year in December, down from 20.4% in November. But with more real estate and infrastructure construction underway, industrial output still rose to 10.3% year-on-year growth in December, up from 10.1% in November and a low of 8.9% in August. Zhang Jianping, a researcher tied to the powerful National Development and Reform Commission, was optimistic about the scope for more capital spending. “This year’s investment growth will be similar to 2012 as room for investment remain large due to the gap between western and eastern china, and between urban and rural areas,” she said. Labor markets tightened in the final quarter of the year. Data collected by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security from local employment bureaus shows the ratio of job opportunities to job seekers rising to 1.08, up from 1.05 in the third quarter and matching the previous peak in the first quarter of the year. That supported continued rapid increases in wages. Average wages for migrant workers were up 11.8% year-on-year. Urban household disposable income rose 12.6% for the year – outpacing growth in nominal GDP. Higher wages supported robust growth in consumption. Electrical appliance retailer Gome, which faced tough times last year as a weak housing market put washing machine sales into a spin, said they thought the worst could be behind them. A property market uptick will have a positive impact on the appliance market, a spokesman for the company said. All of that raised hopes that the long awaited rebalancing of China’s economy toward a stronger role for household consumption might finally be underway. Janet Zhang at Dragonomics noted that consumption accounted for 4 percentage points of China’s growth in 2012, higher than the 3.9 percentage-point contribution from gross capital formation, with exports dragging the total down. Foreign demand showed some signs of recovering, with exports bouncing to 14% year-on-year growth in December, up from 2.8% in November. But with matching numbers from trade partners not quite so impressive, there were doubts about the accuracy of the data. Louis Kuijs, China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, finds a discrepancy between Chinese data on exports to Hong Kong, and Hong Kong data on imports from China. Whilst not conclusive proof that China’s export data is off, Mr. Kuijs concludes it’s possible export growth in the final months of 2012 is out by as much as 4 percentage points. China’s imbalance with the rest of the world ticked back up. The trade surplus for 2012 grew to $232.8 billion, up from $157.8 billion in 2011. The politically contentious trade surplus with the U.S. rose to $219 billion from $202 billion. The yuan ended the year on a tear. After depreciating against the dollar for several months of the year, China’s currency hit an annualized month-on-month appreciation rate of about 3.5% in November and December. For the year as a whole, that was still only enough to leave the yuan up 0.2% at 6.2855 to the dollar. Inflation showed signs of rearing is piggy head, with consumer prices up 2.5% year-on-year in September, acceleration from 2% in November. Food prices, which were up 4.2%, were the main culprit. Analysts worried that the “pig cycle” – a term for the pattern of pig production, not a 4-H exhibit – had turned, threatening a further increase in prices over the year. With growth on track, partly thanks to rate cuts earlier in the year, the central bank kept policy on hold, with no moves on interest rates or the reserve requirement. Fiscal policy ended the year with its customary splurge, as spending departments emptied their coffers. Bank lending ended the year weak, with new bank loans surprising on the downside at 454.3 billion yuan in December. Non-bank lending accelerated, buoying growth but also raising concerns about a build up of credit in shadowy parts of China’s financial system and higher borrowing by local government financial vehicles. The consensus forecast for 2013 is for a further moderate acceleration, with growth coming in around 8% for the year. But much depends on the choices China’s new leaders make on credit growth, property tightening and the size of the fiscal deficit. Further clarity on all of those areas should come at the National People’s Congress in early March. – Tom Orlik, with contributions from MinJung Kim Like China Real Time on Facebook and follow us Twitter for the latest updates.

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China’s economy has bounced back. A return to accelerating growth in the fourth quarter breaks seven straight quarters of declining growth and draws a line under concerns that the world’s second largest economy is heading for a hard landing. To engineer the rebound, China’s government turned again to boosting credit and investment spending. But beneath the surface, there were also signs a rebalancing toward consumption may be underway. China Real Time charts it out: Growth in gross domestic product accelerated to 7.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, up from 7.4% in the third. The sequential growth rate showed signs of stabilization, with annualized quarter-on-quarter growth at 8.2%, down from 8.7% in the third quarter. Investment bank economists continued to calculate their own quarter-on-quarter growth rate. Wang Tao, China economist at UBS, saw an even more positive picture, with growth accelerating to 8.6% in the fourth quarter from 8.0% in the third. Real economy indicators like electricity consumption, one of the measures premier in waiting Li Keqiang said he uses to track growth, and steel production, also pointed to a strengthening economy. For the year as a whole, GDP growth of 7.8% was down from 9.3% in 2011 and the slowest rate of growth since 1999. Ma Jiantang, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said there would be no return to the era of super rapid growth, and China should aim for something between 7% and 8%. One reason growth has slowed: a shrinking workforce. Mr. Ma said that China’s working age population shrank by 3.5 million in 2012. Off a total of more than 900 million that might not seem particularly alarming. But it signals an important turning point from an expanding to a contracting pool of workers. Key to the recovery – strong investment in the real estate and infrastructure sectors. After almost three years of strict controls, China’s real estate sector is showing signs of springing back to life. Sales had a strong quarter, with floor space sold rising 32% year-on-year in November. Sales for Vanke, China’s biggest developer by revenue, were also up more than 100% in December. Local government investment vehicles – the heroes of the 2009-10 stimulus, and the villain of subsequent concerns about bad debts and bridges to nowhere – were back on the stage. Investment in roads and railway picked up from lows earlier in the year. Manufacturers were less optimistic, with overcapacity and rising debts denting investment growth in the sector. Lan Shen, one of the China economists at Standard Chartered, notes that manufacturing investment decelerated to 16% year-on-year in December, down from 20.4% in November. But with more real estate and infrastructure construction underway, industrial output still rose to 10.3% year-on-year growth in December, up from 10.1% in November and a low of 8.9% in August. Zhang Jianping, a researcher tied to the powerful National Development and Reform Commission, was optimistic about the scope for more capital spending. “This year’s investment growth will be similar to 2012 as room for investment remain large due to the gap between western and eastern china, and between urban and rural areas,” she said. Labor markets tightened in the final quarter of the year. Data collected by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security from local employment bureaus shows the ratio of job opportunities to job seekers rising to 1.08, up from 1.05 in the third quarter and matching the previous peak in the first quarter of the year. That supported continued rapid increases in wages. Average wages for migrant workers were up 11.8% year-on-year. Urban household disposable income rose 12.6% for the year – outpacing growth in nominal GDP. Higher wages supported robust growth in consumption. Electrical appliance retailer Gome, which faced tough times last year as a weak housing market put washing machine sales into a spin, said they thought the worst could be behind them. A property market uptick will have a positive impact on the appliance market, a spokesman for the company said. All of that raised hopes that the long awaited rebalancing of China’s economy toward a stronger role for household consumption might finally be underway. Janet Zhang at Dragonomics noted that consumption accounted for 4 percentage points of China’s growth in 2012, higher than the 3.9 percentage-point contribution from gross capital formation, with exports dragging the total down. Foreign demand showed some signs of recovering, with exports bouncing to 14% year-on-year growth in December, up from 2.8% in November. But with matching numbers from trade partners not quite so impressive, there were doubts about the accuracy of the data. Louis Kuijs, China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, finds a discrepancy between Chinese data on exports to Hong Kong, and Hong Kong data on imports from China. Whilst not conclusive proof that China’s export data is off, Mr. Kuijs concludes it’s possible export growth in the final months of 2012 is out by as much as 4 percentage points. China’s imbalance with the rest of the world ticked back up. The trade surplus for 2012 grew to $232.8 billion, up from $157.8 billion in 2011. The politically contentious trade surplus with the U.S. rose to $219 billion from $202 billion. The yuan ended the year on a tear. After depreciating against the dollar for several months of the year, China’s currency hit an annualized month-on-month appreciation rate of about 3.5% in November and December. For the year as a whole, that was still only enough to leave the yuan up 0.2% at 6.2855 to the dollar. Inflation showed signs of rearing is piggy head, with consumer prices up 2.5% year-on-year in September, acceleration from 2% in November. Food prices, which were up 4.2%, were the main culprit. Analysts worried that the “pig cycle” – a term for the pattern of pig production, not a 4-H exhibit – had turned, threatening a further increase in prices over the year. With growth on track, partly thanks to rate cuts earlier in the year, the central bank kept policy on hold, with no moves on interest rates or the reserve requirement. Fiscal policy ended the year with its customary splurge, as spending departments emptied their coffers. Bank lending ended the year weak, with new bank loans surprising on the downside at 454.3 billion yuan in December. Non-bank lending accelerated, buoying growth but also raising concerns about a build up of credit in shadowy parts of China’s financial system and higher borrowing by local government financial vehicles. The consensus forecast for 2013 is for a further moderate acceleration, with growth coming in around 8% for the year. But much depends on the choices China’s new leaders make on credit growth, property tightening and the size of the fiscal deficit. Further clarity on all of those areas should come at the National People’s Congress in early March. – Tom Orlik, with contributions from MinJung Kim Like China Real Time on Facebook and follow us Twitter for the latest updates.

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Charting China’s Economy: The Fourth Quarter

Business

Democrat Claims Musk is Undermining Spending Bill Due to China Restrictions – The Hill

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A Democrat claims Elon Musk influenced the reduction of a spending bill due to its restrictions on China, suggesting his actions impacted the legislation’s progress and funding allocation.


Allegations Against Musk

A prominent Democrat has accused Elon Musk of deliberately sabotaging a significant spending bill in response to China-related restrictions. This accusation comes amid ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly regarding technology and trade policies. The claims suggest that Musk’s influence is affecting critical legislative processes, raising concerns among lawmakers about foreign influence in American politics.

Implications for Legislation

The potential ramifications of Musk’s alleged actions could be significant. As a major player in the tech industry, his decisions can sway public opinion and impact the economy. Lawmakers fear that if influential figures like Musk oppose necessary legislation, it might hinder efforts to address vital issues such as national security and economic stability.

Political Reactions

The controversy has sparked debates among both Democrats and Republicans, highlighting the intersection of technology and politics. Many are demanding greater transparency and accountability from tech giants. As the situation unfolds, lawmakers may need to reassess their strategies to ensure that essential legislation moves forward uninterrupted.

Source : Democrat accuses Musk of tanking spending bill over China restrictions – The Hill

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China

Dissolving a Company in China: A Comparison of General Deregistration and Simplified Deregistration

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China promotes simplified deregistration to enhance its business environment, offering a faster process requiring fewer documents than general deregistration. Companies must meet eligibility criteria, resolve issues, and can choose procedures based on their situation, ensuring compliance for both options.


In addition to the general deregistration procedures, China has been promoting simplified deregistration as one of the key measures to enhance its business environment. This article highlights the differences between the general and simplified procedures, explains the eligibility criteria, and clarifies common misunderstandings about these processes.

Foreign investors may decide to close their business for multiple reasons. To legally wind up a business, investors must complete a series of procedures involving multiple government agencies, such as market regulatory bureaus, foreign exchange administrations, customs, tax authorities, banking regulators, and others. In this article, we outline the company deregistration process overseen by the local Administration for Market Regulation (AMR), comparing the general and simplified procedures.

Before 2016, companies could only deregister through the general procedure. However, on December 26, 2016, the Guidance on Fully Promoting the Reform of Simplified Company Deregistration Procedures was released. Effective March 1, 2017, simplified deregistration procedures were implemented nationwide. Since then, there have been two options: general procedures and simplified procedures.

Companies must follow the general deregistration process if any of the following conditions apply (hereinafter referred to as “existing issues”):

Companies not facing the above issues may choose either the general or simplified deregistration process.  

In summary, simplified deregistration is a faster process and requires fewer documents compared to general deregistration. Companies that meet the criteria typically would typically opt for simplified deregistration. Those that do not meet the criteria may choose this route after resolving outstanding issues. For companies with unresolved issues but seeking urgent closure, they can first publish a deregistration announcement. Once the announcement period ends and all issues are addressed, they can proceed with general deregistration. Some companies may question the legitimacy and compliance of simplified deregistration. This is a misconception. “Simplified” does not mean non-compliant, just as “general” does not imply greater legitimacy. Both processes are lawful and compliant. The AMR provides these options to enable companies ready for closure to complete the process efficiently while granting those with unsolved issues the necessary time to address them after publishing the deregistration announcement. Companies can select the most suitable process based on their specific circumstances.

 


This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in ChinaHong KongVietnamSingapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support.

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China’s influence grows at COP29 climate talks as US leadership fades

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The 2024 U.N. climate talks in Baku yielded mixed results, agreeing to increase funding for developing nations. However, challenges remained in addressing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving sustainable progress.

The 2024 U.N. climate talks ended in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Nov. 24 after two weeks of arguments, agreements and side deals involving 106 heads of states and over 50,000 business leaders, activists and government representatives of almost every country.

Few say the conference was a resounding success. But neither was it a failure.

The central task of the conference, known as COP29, was to come up with funding to help developing countries become more resilient to the effects of climate change and to transition to more sustainable economic growth.

The biggest challenge was agreeing on who should pay, and the results say a lot about the shifting international dynamics and offer some insight into China’s role. As a political science professor who has worked on clean tech policy involving Asia, I followed the talks with interest.

Slow global progress

Over three decades of global climate talks, the world’s countries have agreed to cut their emissions, phase out fossil fuels, end inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies and stop deforestation, among many other landmark deals.

They have acknowledged since the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, when they agreed to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, that greenhouse gas emissions produced by human activities, including the burning of fossil fuels, would harm the climate and ecosystems, and that the governments of the world must work together to solve the crisis.

But progress has been slow.

Greenhouse gas emissions were at record highs in 2024. Governments are still subsidizing fossil fuels, encouraging their use. And the world is failing to keep warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with preindustrial times – a target established under the 2015 Paris Agreement to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Extreme weather, from lethal heat waves to devastating tropical cyclones and floods, has become more intense as temperatures have risen. And the poorest countries have faced some of the worst damage from climate change, while doing the least cause it.

Money for the poorest countries

Developing countries argue that they need US$1.3 trillion a year in financial support and investment by 2035 from the wealthiest nations – historically the largest greenhouse gas emitters – to adapt to climate change and develop sustainably as they grow.

That matters to countries everywhere because how these fast-growing populations build out energy systems and transportation in the coming decades will affect the future for the entire planet.

Negotiators at the COP29 climate talks. Less developed countries were unhappy with the outcome.
Kiara Worth/UN Climate Change via Flickr

At the Baku conference, member nations agreed to triple their existing pledge of $100 billion a year to at least $300 billion a year by 2035 to help developing countries. But that was far short of what economists have estimated those countries will need to develop clean energy economies.

The money can also come from a variety of sources. Developing countries wanted grants, rather than loans that would increase what for many is already crushing debt. Under the new agreement, countries can count funding that comes from private investments and loans from the World Bank and other development banks, as well as public funds.

Groups have proposed raising some of those funds with additional taxes on international shipping and aviation. A U.N. study projects that if levies were set somewhere between $150 and $300 for each ton of carbon pollution, the fund could generate as much as $127 billion per year. Other proposals have included taxing fossil fuels, cryptocurrencies and plastics, which all contribute to climate change, as well as financial transactions and carbon trading.

China’s expanding role

How much of a leadership role China takes in global climate efforts is an important question going forward, particularly with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump expected to throttle back U.S. support for climate policies and international funding.

China is now the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases and the second-largest economy.

China also stands to gain as provider of the market majority of green technologies, including solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles.

Whether or not China should be expected to contribute funding at a level comparable to the other major emitters was so hotly contested at COP29 that it almost shut down the entire conference.

Previously, only those countries listed by the U.N. as “developed countries” – a list that doesn’t include China – were expected to provide funds. The COP29 agreement expands that by calling on “all actors to work together to enable the scaling up of financing.”

In the end, a compromise was reached. The final agreement “encourages developing countries to make contributions on a voluntary basis,” excluding China from the heavier expectations placed on richer nations.

Side deals offer signs of progress

In a conference fraught with deep division and threatened with collapse, some bright spots of climate progress emerged from the side events.

In one declaration, 25 nations plus the European Union agreed to no new coal power developments. There were also agreements on ocean protection and deforestation. Other declarations marked efforts to reenergize hydrogen energy production and expanded ambitious plans to reduce methane emissions.

Future of UN climate talks

However, after two weeks of bickering and a final resolution that doesn’t go far enough, the U.N. climate talks process itself is in question.

In a letter on Nov. 15, 2024, former U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and a group of global climate leaders called for “a fundamental overhaul to the COP” and a “shift from negotiation to implementation.”

After back-to-back climate conferences hosted by oil-producing states, where fossil-fuel companies used the gathering to make deals for more fossil fuels on the side, the letter also calls for strict eligibility requirements for conference hosts “to exclude countries who do not support the phase out/transition away from fossil energy.”

With Trump promising to again withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, it is possible the climate leadership will fall to China, which may bring a new style of climate solutions to the table.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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