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Charting China’s Economy: The Fourth Quarter

China’s economy has bounced back. A return to accelerating growth in the fourth quarter breaks seven straight quarters of declining growth and draws a line under concerns that the world’s second largest economy is heading for a hard landing. To engineer the rebound, China’s government turned again to boosting credit and investment spending. But beneath the surface, there were also signs a rebalancing toward consumption may be underway. China Real Time charts it out: Growth in gross domestic product accelerated to 7.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, up from 7.4% in the third. The sequential growth rate showed signs of stabilization, with annualized quarter-on-quarter growth at 8.2%, down from 8.7% in the third quarter. Investment bank economists continued to calculate their own quarter-on-quarter growth rate. Wang Tao, China economist at UBS, saw an even more positive picture, with growth accelerating to 8.6% in the fourth quarter from 8.0% in the third. Real economy indicators like electricity consumption, one of the measures premier in waiting Li Keqiang said he uses to track growth, and steel production, also pointed to a strengthening economy. For the year as a whole, GDP growth of 7.8% was down from 9.3% in 2011 and the slowest rate of growth since 1999. Ma Jiantang, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said there would be no return to the era of super rapid growth, and China should aim for something between 7% and 8%. One reason growth has slowed: a shrinking workforce. Mr. Ma said that China’s working age population shrank by 3.5 million in 2012. Off a total of more than 900 million that might not seem particularly alarming. But it signals an important turning point from an expanding to a contracting pool of workers. Key to the recovery – strong investment in the real estate and infrastructure sectors. After almost three years of strict controls, China’s real estate sector is showing signs of springing back to life. Sales had a strong quarter, with floor space sold rising 32% year-on-year in November. Sales for Vanke, China’s biggest developer by revenue, were also up more than 100% in December. Local government investment vehicles – the heroes of the 2009-10 stimulus, and the villain of subsequent concerns about bad debts and bridges to nowhere – were back on the stage. Investment in roads and railway picked up from lows earlier in the year. Manufacturers were less optimistic, with overcapacity and rising debts denting investment growth in the sector. Lan Shen, one of the China economists at Standard Chartered, notes that manufacturing investment decelerated to 16% year-on-year in December, down from 20.4% in November. But with more real estate and infrastructure construction underway, industrial output still rose to 10.3% year-on-year growth in December, up from 10.1% in November and a low of 8.9% in August. Zhang Jianping, a researcher tied to the powerful National Development and Reform Commission, was optimistic about the scope for more capital spending. “This year’s investment growth will be similar to 2012 as room for investment remain large due to the gap between western and eastern china, and between urban and rural areas,” she said. Labor markets tightened in the final quarter of the year. Data collected by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security from local employment bureaus shows the ratio of job opportunities to job seekers rising to 1.08, up from 1.05 in the third quarter and matching the previous peak in the first quarter of the year. That supported continued rapid increases in wages. Average wages for migrant workers were up 11.8% year-on-year. Urban household disposable income rose 12.6% for the year – outpacing growth in nominal GDP. Higher wages supported robust growth in consumption. Electrical appliance retailer Gome, which faced tough times last year as a weak housing market put washing machine sales into a spin, said they thought the worst could be behind them. A property market uptick will have a positive impact on the appliance market, a spokesman for the company said. All of that raised hopes that the long awaited rebalancing of China’s economy toward a stronger role for household consumption might finally be underway. Janet Zhang at Dragonomics noted that consumption accounted for 4 percentage points of China’s growth in 2012, higher than the 3.9 percentage-point contribution from gross capital formation, with exports dragging the total down. Foreign demand showed some signs of recovering, with exports bouncing to 14% year-on-year growth in December, up from 2.8% in November. But with matching numbers from trade partners not quite so impressive, there were doubts about the accuracy of the data. Louis Kuijs, China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, finds a discrepancy between Chinese data on exports to Hong Kong, and Hong Kong data on imports from China. Whilst not conclusive proof that China’s export data is off, Mr. Kuijs concludes it’s possible export growth in the final months of 2012 is out by as much as 4 percentage points. China’s imbalance with the rest of the world ticked back up. The trade surplus for 2012 grew to $232.8 billion, up from $157.8 billion in 2011. The politically contentious trade surplus with the U.S. rose to $219 billion from $202 billion. The yuan ended the year on a tear. After depreciating against the dollar for several months of the year, China’s currency hit an annualized month-on-month appreciation rate of about 3.5% in November and December. For the year as a whole, that was still only enough to leave the yuan up 0.2% at 6.2855 to the dollar. Inflation showed signs of rearing is piggy head, with consumer prices up 2.5% year-on-year in September, acceleration from 2% in November. Food prices, which were up 4.2%, were the main culprit. Analysts worried that the “pig cycle” – a term for the pattern of pig production, not a 4-H exhibit – had turned, threatening a further increase in prices over the year. With growth on track, partly thanks to rate cuts earlier in the year, the central bank kept policy on hold, with no moves on interest rates or the reserve requirement. Fiscal policy ended the year with its customary splurge, as spending departments emptied their coffers. Bank lending ended the year weak, with new bank loans surprising on the downside at 454.3 billion yuan in December. Non-bank lending accelerated, buoying growth but also raising concerns about a build up of credit in shadowy parts of China’s financial system and higher borrowing by local government financial vehicles. The consensus forecast for 2013 is for a further moderate acceleration, with growth coming in around 8% for the year. But much depends on the choices China’s new leaders make on credit growth, property tightening and the size of the fiscal deficit. Further clarity on all of those areas should come at the National People’s Congress in early March. – Tom Orlik, with contributions from MinJung Kim Like China Real Time on Facebook and follow us Twitter for the latest updates.

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China’s economy has bounced back. A return to accelerating growth in the fourth quarter breaks seven straight quarters of declining growth and draws a line under concerns that the world’s second largest economy is heading for a hard landing. To engineer the rebound, China’s government turned again to boosting credit and investment spending. But beneath the surface, there were also signs a rebalancing toward consumption may be underway. China Real Time charts it out: Growth in gross domestic product accelerated to 7.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, up from 7.4% in the third. The sequential growth rate showed signs of stabilization, with annualized quarter-on-quarter growth at 8.2%, down from 8.7% in the third quarter. Investment bank economists continued to calculate their own quarter-on-quarter growth rate. Wang Tao, China economist at UBS, saw an even more positive picture, with growth accelerating to 8.6% in the fourth quarter from 8.0% in the third. Real economy indicators like electricity consumption, one of the measures premier in waiting Li Keqiang said he uses to track growth, and steel production, also pointed to a strengthening economy. For the year as a whole, GDP growth of 7.8% was down from 9.3% in 2011 and the slowest rate of growth since 1999. Ma Jiantang, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said there would be no return to the era of super rapid growth, and China should aim for something between 7% and 8%. One reason growth has slowed: a shrinking workforce. Mr. Ma said that China’s working age population shrank by 3.5 million in 2012. Off a total of more than 900 million that might not seem particularly alarming. But it signals an important turning point from an expanding to a contracting pool of workers. Key to the recovery – strong investment in the real estate and infrastructure sectors. After almost three years of strict controls, China’s real estate sector is showing signs of springing back to life. Sales had a strong quarter, with floor space sold rising 32% year-on-year in November. Sales for Vanke, China’s biggest developer by revenue, were also up more than 100% in December. Local government investment vehicles – the heroes of the 2009-10 stimulus, and the villain of subsequent concerns about bad debts and bridges to nowhere – were back on the stage. Investment in roads and railway picked up from lows earlier in the year. Manufacturers were less optimistic, with overcapacity and rising debts denting investment growth in the sector. Lan Shen, one of the China economists at Standard Chartered, notes that manufacturing investment decelerated to 16% year-on-year in December, down from 20.4% in November. But with more real estate and infrastructure construction underway, industrial output still rose to 10.3% year-on-year growth in December, up from 10.1% in November and a low of 8.9% in August. Zhang Jianping, a researcher tied to the powerful National Development and Reform Commission, was optimistic about the scope for more capital spending. “This year’s investment growth will be similar to 2012 as room for investment remain large due to the gap between western and eastern china, and between urban and rural areas,” she said. Labor markets tightened in the final quarter of the year. Data collected by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security from local employment bureaus shows the ratio of job opportunities to job seekers rising to 1.08, up from 1.05 in the third quarter and matching the previous peak in the first quarter of the year. That supported continued rapid increases in wages. Average wages for migrant workers were up 11.8% year-on-year. Urban household disposable income rose 12.6% for the year – outpacing growth in nominal GDP. Higher wages supported robust growth in consumption. Electrical appliance retailer Gome, which faced tough times last year as a weak housing market put washing machine sales into a spin, said they thought the worst could be behind them. A property market uptick will have a positive impact on the appliance market, a spokesman for the company said. All of that raised hopes that the long awaited rebalancing of China’s economy toward a stronger role for household consumption might finally be underway. Janet Zhang at Dragonomics noted that consumption accounted for 4 percentage points of China’s growth in 2012, higher than the 3.9 percentage-point contribution from gross capital formation, with exports dragging the total down. Foreign demand showed some signs of recovering, with exports bouncing to 14% year-on-year growth in December, up from 2.8% in November. But with matching numbers from trade partners not quite so impressive, there were doubts about the accuracy of the data. Louis Kuijs, China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, finds a discrepancy between Chinese data on exports to Hong Kong, and Hong Kong data on imports from China. Whilst not conclusive proof that China’s export data is off, Mr. Kuijs concludes it’s possible export growth in the final months of 2012 is out by as much as 4 percentage points. China’s imbalance with the rest of the world ticked back up. The trade surplus for 2012 grew to $232.8 billion, up from $157.8 billion in 2011. The politically contentious trade surplus with the U.S. rose to $219 billion from $202 billion. The yuan ended the year on a tear. After depreciating against the dollar for several months of the year, China’s currency hit an annualized month-on-month appreciation rate of about 3.5% in November and December. For the year as a whole, that was still only enough to leave the yuan up 0.2% at 6.2855 to the dollar. Inflation showed signs of rearing is piggy head, with consumer prices up 2.5% year-on-year in September, acceleration from 2% in November. Food prices, which were up 4.2%, were the main culprit. Analysts worried that the “pig cycle” – a term for the pattern of pig production, not a 4-H exhibit – had turned, threatening a further increase in prices over the year. With growth on track, partly thanks to rate cuts earlier in the year, the central bank kept policy on hold, with no moves on interest rates or the reserve requirement. Fiscal policy ended the year with its customary splurge, as spending departments emptied their coffers. Bank lending ended the year weak, with new bank loans surprising on the downside at 454.3 billion yuan in December. Non-bank lending accelerated, buoying growth but also raising concerns about a build up of credit in shadowy parts of China’s financial system and higher borrowing by local government financial vehicles. The consensus forecast for 2013 is for a further moderate acceleration, with growth coming in around 8% for the year. But much depends on the choices China’s new leaders make on credit growth, property tightening and the size of the fiscal deficit. Further clarity on all of those areas should come at the National People’s Congress in early March. – Tom Orlik, with contributions from MinJung Kim Like China Real Time on Facebook and follow us Twitter for the latest updates.

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Charting China’s Economy: The Fourth Quarter

Business

BRICS: China Classifies Crypto as Property and Prohibits Business Ownership

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XRP

China’s Shanghai court ruled cryptocurrencies are property, boosting optimism in the crypto industry while maintaining a ban on business transactions. This may signal a shift in future regulations.


China’s Ruling on Cryptocurrency

In a pivotal decision for the nation and its BRICS alliance, China has officially classified cryptocurrency as property while maintaining prohibitions against business transactions involving digital assets. A notable ruling from the Shanghai Songjiant People’s Court affirmed cryptocurrencies as property, sparking optimism within the crypto industry regarding future regulations.

Implications for the Crypto Industry

As cryptocurrencies gain significance globally, the Chinese ruling is viewed as a potential-positive shift amidst ongoing restrictions. While individuals can hold virtual currency, businesses remain barred from engaging in investment transactions or issuing tokens independently. This decision has generated anticipation for more accommodating regulations in the future.

Future Prospects for Cryptocurrency in China

Experts like Max Keiser believe this ruling indicates China’s growing acknowledgment of Bitcoin’s influence. As BRICS nations explore increased cryptocurrency utilization in trade, this legal shift could enhance market demand and lead to greater acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class, setting the stage for potential developments in 2025.

Source : BRICS: China Rules Crypto as Property, Bars Business Holdings

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Digital Taxation in China: Effects on Corporate Tax Risk Management and Compliance Strategies

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Tax digitalization in China enhances efficiency and accuracy in tax administration through AI and technology. Significant advancements include online services, e-invoicing, and data integration, improving risk management. The government targets further reforms by 2025 to establish a robust intelligent taxation system.


Tax digitalization, also known as “digitalized tax administration” or “tax administration by data,” is gaining momentum in China. Enabled by digital technologies and artificial intelligence, Chinese tax authorities have significantly improved the efficiency and accuracy of tax administration. As a result, tax risks are now easier to identify, and tax audits have become more focused and targeted.

The Chinese tax bureau has made significant efforts to advance tax administration through digital upgrades and intelligent transformation. By utilizing modern information technology, the tax authorities have established platforms such as the electronic tax bureau, which enables online processing of tax registration, filing, and payments. Additionally, the promotion of electronic invoicing and the Golden Tax IV system has improved the efficiency and accuracy of tax administration.

This digital landscape allows tax authorities to integrate data from various sources, including invoices, banking information, business records, and customs data. Such integration facilitates more accurate identification of potential tax risks.

This article explores the impact of tax digitalization on businesses in China, emphasizing the evolving dynamics of tax risk management, particularly regarding data supervision.

At the opening ceremony of the 5th Belt and Road Initiative Tax Administration Cooperation Forum on September 24, 2024, Hu Jinglin, Commissioner of the State Taxation Administration (STA) of China, delivered a speech outlining the efforts of Chinese tax authorities to enhance tax administration and efficiency. He emphasized the importance of advancing tax governance through data, highlighting the STA’s commitment to leveraging data and algorithms for intelligent tax management.

Currently, a pilot program for fully digitalized electronic invoices (e-fapiao) has been expanded nationwide, alongside the launch of a unified electronic tax bureau. Additionally, a smart office platform for tax personnel is under development. These systems aim to provide intelligent services for taxpayers and enable tax officers to deliver differentiated and precise services based on dynamic credit risk assessments.

Furthermore, according to a document released by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and General Office of the State Council in 2021, titled “Opinions on Further Deepening the Reform of Tax Collection and Administration,” China aims to achieve significant progress by 2025 in reforming its tax administration system. In particular, it aims to establish a robust and intelligent taxation framework and develop a first-class intelligent administrative application system, thereby improving tax law enforcement, service, and regulatory capabilities.


This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in ChinaHong KongVietnamSingapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support.

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Farms to fame: How China’s rural influencers are redefining country life

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In Yunnan, influencer Dianxi Xiaoge redefines rural China’s image, showcasing pastoral life, bridging cultural gaps between urbanites and rural communities, and sparking interest through nostalgic content and government support.

In the quiet backwaters of Yunnan, Dong Meihua – though her followers know her by the public alias Dianxi Xiaoge – has done something remarkable: She’s taken the pastoral simplicity of rural China and made it irresistible to millions. In her hands, a village kitchen becomes a stage, and the rhythms of farm life become a story as compelling as any novel. She is one of many rural influencers returning to their roots.

In a digital revolution turning established narratives on their head, China’s countryside is emerging as an unlikely epicenter of viral content. Xiaoge is one of thousands of influencers redefining through social media how the countryside is perceived.

Upending preconceptions of rural China as a hinterland of poverty and stagnation, this new breed of social media mavens is serving up a feast of bucolic bliss to millions of urbanites. It is a narrative shift encouraged by authorities; the Chinese government has given its blessing to influencers promoting picturesque rural images. Doing so helps downplay urban-rural chasms and stoke national pride. It also fits nicely with Beijing’s rural revitalization strategy.

Hardship to revival

To fully appreciate any phenomenon, it’s necessary to first consider the historical context. For decades, China’s countryside was synonymous with hardship and backwardness. The Great Leap Forward of the late 1950s and early 1960s – Communist China’s revered founder Mao Zedong’s disastrous attempt to industrialize a largely agrarian country – devastated rural communities and led to widespread famine that saw tens of millions die.

The subsequent Cultural Revolution, in which Mao strengthened his grip on power through a broad purge of the nation’s intelligentsia, further disrupted customary rural life as educated youth were sent to the countryside for “reeducation.” These traumatic events inflicted deep scars on the rural psyche and economy.

Meanwhile, the “hukou” system, which since the late 1950s has tied social benefits to a person’s birthplace and divided citizens into “agricultural ” and “nonagricultural” residency status, has created a stark divide between urban and rural citizens.

The reform era of Mao’s successor, Deng Xiaoping, beginning in 1978, brought new challenges. As China’s cities boomed, the countryside lagged behind.

Millions of rural Chinese have migrated to cities for better opportunities, abandoning aging populations and hollowed-out communities. In 1980, 19% of China’s population lived in urban areas. By 2023, that figure had risen to 66%.

Government policies have since developed extensively toward rural areas. The abolition of agricultural taxes in 2006 heralded a major milestone, demonstrating a renewed commitment to rural prosperity. Most recently, President Xi Jinping’s “rural revitalization” has put countryside development at the forefront of national policy. The launch of the Internet Plus Agriculture initiative and investment in rural e-commerce platforms such as Taobao Villages allow isolated farming communities to connect to urban markets.

Notwithstanding these efforts, China’s urban-rural income gap remains substantial, with the average annual per capita disposable income of rural households standing at 21,691 yuan (about US$3,100), approximately 40% of the amount for urban households.

Enter the ‘new farmer’

Digital-savvy farmers and countryside dwellers have used nostalgia and authenticity to win over Chinese social media. Stars such as Li Ziqi and Dianxi Xiaoge have racked up huge numbers of followers as they paint rural China as both an idyllic escape and a thriving cultural hub.

The Chinese term for this social media phenomenon is “new farmer.” This encapsulates the rise of rural celebrities who use platforms such as Douyin and Weibo to document and commercialize their way of life. Take Sister Yu: With over 23 million followers, she showcases the rustic charm of northeast China as she pickles vegetables and cooks hearty meals. Or Peng Chuanming: a farmer in Fujian whose videos on crafting traditional teas and restoring his home have captivated millions.

Since 2016, these platforms have turned rural life into digital gold. What began as simple documentation has evolved into a phenomenon commanding enormous audiences, fueled not just by nostalgia but also economic necessity. China’s post-COVID-19 economic downturn, marked by soaring youth unemployment and diminishing urban opportunities, has driven some to seek livelihoods in the countryside.

In China’s megacities, where the air is thick with pollution and opportunity, there’s clearly a hunger for something real – something that doesn’t come shrink-wrapped or with a QR code. And rural influencers serve slices of a life many thought lost to China’s breakneck development.

Compared with their urban counterparts, rural influencers carve out a unique niche in China’s vast social media landscape. Although fashion bloggers, gaming streamers and lifestyle gurus dominate platforms such as Weibo and Douyin, the Chinese TikTok, rural content creators tap into a different cultural romanticism and a yearning for connection to nature. In addition, their content capitalizes on the rising popularity of short video platforms such as Kuaishou and Pinduoduo, augmenting their reach across a wide demographic, from nostalgic retirees to eco-conscious millennials.

But this is not simply digital escapism for the masses. Tourism is booming in once-forgotten villages. Traditional crafts are finding new markets. In 2020 alone, Taobao Villages reported a staggering 1.2 trillion yuan (around $169.36 billion) in sales.

The Chinese government, never one to miss a PR opportunity, has spotted potential. Rural revitalization is now the buzzword among government officials. It’s a win-win: Villagers net economic opportunities, and the state polishes its reputation as a champion of traditional values. Government officials have leveraged platforms such as X to showcase China’s rural revitalization efforts to international audiences.

Authenticity or illusion?

As with all algorithms, there’s a catch to the new farmer movement. The more popular rural influencers become, the more pressure they face to perform “authenticity.” Or put another way: The more real it looks, the less real it might actually be.

It raises another question: Who truly benefits? Are we witnessing rural empowerment or a commodification of rural life for urban consumption? With corporate sponsors and government initiatives piling in, the line between genuine representation and curated fantasy blurs.

Local governments, recognizing the economic potential, have begun offering subsidies to rural content creators, causing skepticism about whether this content is truly grassroots or part of a bigger, state-led campaign to sanitize the countryside’s image.

Yet, for all the conceivable pitfalls, the new farmer trend is an opportunity to challenge the urban-centric narrative that has dominated China’s development story for decades and rethink whether progress always means high-rises and highways, or if there’s value in preserving ways of life that have sustained communities for centuries.

More importantly, it’s narrowing the cultural disconnect that has long separated China’s rural and urban populations. In a country where your hukou can determine your destiny, these viral videos foster understanding in ways that no government program ever could.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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