China
Trump risks pushing Iran into China’s orbit
Author: Simon Theobald, ANU
A downed drone, attacks on oil tankers, and calls for oblivion by US President Donald Trump — Iran and the United States are closer to war than at any other time since the inception of the Islamic Republic. But it is China that looks set to benefit as Iran searches for more regional partners in response.
Attempts to mitigate conflict are being spearheaded by European signatories to the Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA), who remain desperate to keep Iran in the deal even as they struggle to find routes around US sanctions. Russia promises moral support to Iran, if little in the way of material backing. The other signatory, China, has remained relatively quiet over the past few weeks, but the question remains: what does the growing risk of conflagration between the United States and Iran mean for China, and what — if anything — can Beijing do about it?
Iran lies at the heart of Beijing’s geostrategic vision for the 21st century. The Belt and Road Initiative, as it is currently planned, runs through a nearly 2000 kilometre stretch of Iranian territory, linking Central Asia, West Asia, and Eastern China. Chinese infrastructure projects are dotted across Iran, from major programs like the development of the South Pars gas field to more minor projects like public transport schemes in regional cities. Iranian bazaars are awash with Chinese goods.
And even as restrictive US sanctions are reducing Iran’s capacity to sell petrochemical resources, China quietly continues to buy Iranian oil, albeit in reduced quantities and with little public fanfare.
And yet, despite the relative importance of Iran in China’s grand plans for West Asia, Beijing has limited room to manoeuvre. The relationship with the United States — for all its problems including the ongoing trade war — is simply far too important to sacrifice on the altar of a relatively small player in China’s economy like Iran. China is also deepening trade ties with other regional powers — notably Israel and Saudi Arabia, two of Iran’s local arch nemeses and staunch US allies.
It is not surprising then that the extent of Beijing’s response to the shooting down of the Global Hawk drone was to call for ‘restraint’, reiterating China’s ongoing commitment to the JCPOA and to fret about the danger of ‘opening Pandora’s box’.
If the unthinkable did happen, what would it look like and what could Beijing do? At this stage, the most likely pattern of any hostilities between Iran and the United States would be a surgical strike on Iranian defence capabilities — a move that was apparently confirmed before being abruptly called off at the last minute. Despite the presence of hawks like John Bolton in his administration, Trump seems to have little interest in putting boots on the ground. Nor does the US public have any appetite for a major conflagration.
Of course, Iran would strike back — whether directly or through proxies — and there is always the risk of a conflict spiralling out of control. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a move with negative consequences for all countries shipping oil out of the Persian Gulf — although strangling such a vital route would probably result in a swift response from the United States.
That said, it is unlikely that the regime in Iran will be overthrown. Its system of theocratic governance is deeply entrenched and commands a level of popular support that, while certainly not universal, is more significant than the advocates of regime change in Washington imagine.
So what could Beijing do? As with the last few weeks, its role will likely to be to call for peace from the sidelines. Little more can be done. And yet, if anything, a strike on Iran is likely to push the wounded country ever further into the arms of China. Constricted by US sanctions, hurting from a potential air attack, and with limited effective help from Europe, the appetite for conciliation with the United States favoured by reformists in Tehran is like to evaporate — if it hasn’t already.
Forging the path ahead would then be handed over to the regime’s own conservatives and more hawkish factions who — always distrustful of the nuclear deal — will likely issue an ‘I told you so’ rebuke to reformists. With few alternatives, closer engagement with Iran’s more ‘reliable’ authoritarian partners like Russia and China is likely. Perhaps then the ultimate beneficiary of Trump’s hard-line stance against Iran will be China.
Simon Theobald is a…
Business
China’s Golden Rooster Film Festival Kicks Off in Xiamen – Thailand Business News
The 2024 China Golden Rooster and Hundred Flowers Film Festival began in Xiamen on Nov 13, featuring awards, cultural projects worth 31.63 billion yuan, and fostering international film collaborations.
2024 China Golden Rooster and Hundred Flowers Film Festival Opens
The 2024 China Golden Rooster and Hundred Flowers Film Festival commenced in Xiamen, Fujian province, on November 13. This prestigious event showcases the top film awards in China and spans four days, concluding with the China Golden Rooster Awards ceremony on November 16.
The festival features various film exhibitions, including the Golden Rooster Mainland Film Section and the Golden Rooster International Film Section. These showcases aim to highlight the achievements of Chinese-language films and foster global cultural exchanges within the film industry.
On the festival’s opening day, a significant milestone was reached with the signing of 175 cultural and film projects, valued at 31.63 billion yuan ($4.36 billion). Additionally, the International Film and Television Copyright Service Platform was launched, furthering the globalization of Chinese film and television properties.
Source : China’s Golden Rooster film festival opens in Xiamen – Thailand Business News
China
Italy and China New DTA Set to Take Effect in 2025: Important Changes and Implications
Italy ratified an upgraded Double Tax Agreement (DTA) with China, effective in 2025, to reduce tax burdens, prevent evasion, and enhance investment. The DTA introduces modern provisions aligned with international standards, targeting tax avoidance and improving dispute resolution for Italian businesses.
Italy recently ratified the upgraded Double Tax Agreement (DTA), which will finally take effect in 2025. This agreement was signed in 2019 and was designed to reduce tax burdens, prevent tax evasion, and promote Italian investment in China.
On November 5, 2024, Italy’s Chamber of Deputies gave final approval to the ratification of the 2019 Double Tax Agreement (DTA) between Italy and China (hereinafter, referred to as the “new DTA”).
Set to take effect in 2025, the new DTA is aimed at eliminating double taxation on income, preventing tax evasion, and creating a more favorable environment for Italian businesses operating in China.
The ratification bill for the new DTA consists of four articles, with Article 3 detailing the financial provisions. Starting in 2025, the implementation costs of the agreement are estimated at €10.86 million (US$11.49 million) annually. These costs will be covered by a reduction in the special current expenditure fund allocated in the Italian Ministry of Economy’s 2024 budget, partially drawing from the reserve for the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
During the parliamentary debate, Deputy Foreign Minister Edmondo Cirielli emphasized the new DTA’s strategic importance, noting that the agreement redefines Italy’s economic and financial framework with China. Cirielli highlighted that the DTA not only strengthens relations with the Chinese government but also supports Italian businesses, which face increasing competition as other European countries have already established double taxation agreements with China. This ratification, therefore, is part of a broader series of diplomatic and economic engagements, leading up to a forthcoming visit by the President of the Italian Republic to China, underscoring Italy’s commitment to fostering bilateral relations and supporting its businesses in China’s complex market landscape.
The newly signed DTA between Italy and China, introduces several modernized provisions aligned with international tax frameworks. Replacing the 1986 DTA, the agreement adopts measures from the OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Project and the OECD Multilateral Instrument (MLI), targeting tax avoidance and improving dispute resolution.
The Principal Purpose Test (PPT) clause, inspired by BEPS, is one of the central updates in the new DTA, working to prevent treaty abuse. This clause allows tax benefits to be denied if one of the primary purposes of a transaction or arrangement was to gain a tax advantage, a move to counter tax evasion through treaty-shopping.
| This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support. |
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Business
China’s New Home Prices Stabilize After 17-Month Decline Following Support Measures
China’s new home prices fell for the 17th month in October, declining 0.5% from September, but slowing, indicating potential market stabilization amid supportive measures. Second-hand home prices showed mixed trends.
Decline in China’s Home Prices Stabilizes
China’s new home prices continued to decline in October for the 17th consecutive month, although the drop showed signs of slowing. Recent support measures from Beijing appear to be inching the market toward stabilization, as evidenced by a lighter decline compared to earlier months.
Monthly and Yearly Comparisons
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, new home prices across 70 mainland cities fell by 0.5% from September, marking the smallest decrease in seven months. Year-on-year, prices dropped by 6.2%, slightly worse than the September decline of 6.1%. In tier-1 cities like Beijing and Shanghai, prices decreased by 0.2%, a smaller fall than 0.5% in the previous month.
Second-Hand Home Market Trends
Second-hand home prices in tier-1 cities experienced a 0.4% increase in October, reversing a 13-month downward trend. Conversely, tier-2 cities observed a 0.4% drop in second-hand prices, while tier-3 cities faced a similar 0.5% decline. Overall, recent trends indicate a potential stabilization in China’s property market.
Source : China’s new home prices slow 17-month decline after support measures kick in
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