China
The geopolitical contours of a post-COVID-19 world
Author: Deepanshu Mohan, OP Jindal Global University
While the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy is more dramatic than any other shock in recent history, the consequences of the virus for the geopolitical order could be even more consequential. A radical shift in the global political economy may be imminent in the post-COVID-19 world.
This shift is conditional on two factors. The first factor is the relative degree of economic recovery seen in nations affected by the pandemic. The second factor is the very different domestic political scenarios that now exist in many affected nations.
Before the pandemic, populism — and its coercive authoritarian tendencies which see the nation-state strengthen in a backlash against the multilateral-globalist order — was on the rise. The outbreak of the pandemic has provided an opportunity for most states to either increase or retract multilateral cooperation.
As the crisis unfolds, critical multilateral arrangements like the G20 are not presenting a unified front. The United States and China have also faced criticism for displaying weak global leadership.
The United States under President Donald Trump is showcasing an inability to lead efforts to fight the virus, let alone offer necessary aid to other countries. Instead, the United States has threatened to undertake protectionist measures to restrict exports of essential medical equipment to neighbours like Canada. Trump is also halting US contributions to the World Health Organization (WHO).
China, on the other hand, has utilised the opportunity to push its state-propaganda internationally, while emerging as a ‘costly’ global supplier of medical equipment. Despite providing for the increased short-term demand for medical supplies, China has continued to receive severe criticism for its information censorship.
In a post-COVID-19 world, many developed nations may consider disentangling direct trade relations with China and decoupling supply chains to restrict the flow of goods and services into and from China.
We are also witnessing signs of authoritarian leaders deepening their control over citizens and redefining sovereign command. China is already commanding greater authoritarian control over its citizens under President Xi Jinping. Despite the United Kingdom witnessing a surge in COVID-19 related deaths, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has in fact seen a rise in his UK approval ratings.
In the United States, Trump is using the crisis to draw more national attention to his upcoming election bid, projecting himself as a ‘wartime president’ and continuing to pursue xenophobic identity politics.
The pandemic has also eroded the credibility of organisations like the WHO. Steps taken by the organisation to exclude Taiwan from emergency meetings and praise of China’s response to the virus make the WHO look like ‘a mouthpiece for Beijing’.
As Yuval Noah Harrari argued in a recent column, the choices people and governments make today will redefine the world. Both sovereigns and their citizens need to be wary of the long-term ramifications of their choices.
One key pattern being observed in most affected countries is how the fight against coronavirus has fostered support for strong leaders.
For example, the nationalist government in Hungary passed a law in late March granting sweeping emergency powers to Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The law grants Orban almost absolute discretionary authority by sidelining all parliamentary process. He now has the power to rule by decree indefinitely.
This politico-economic shift is not new. During the 1930s — after the Great Depression — economic deprivation and rising unemployment rates fuelled the rise of authoritarian leadership across the world.
As Barry Eichengreen explains, ‘There was [in the 1930s] economic nationalism all over in the form of trade wars … there was Oswald Mosley’s antisemitism … there was the harassment and deportation of Mexican Americans, including even hospital patients, by the Los Angeles welfare department and US Department of Labor’.
These events gave rise to the New Deal and the 1942 Beveridge Report in the United States, which transformed the existing social, economic and political order.
The post-Great Depression financial world saw more banking regulations and the collapse of the international gold standard monetary system, which lead to the establishment of a new Bretton Woods order.
While parallel insinuations might be appealing, the post-COVID-19 political machinery might witness a shift towards the adoption…
Business
News Update: China’s Stimulus Falls Short; Sensex and Nifty Decline; Bitcoin Surges Over $82,000
Asian markets showed mixed trends amid China’s stimulus measures and disappointing inflation data. Meanwhile, Indian equities remained stable, with mutual fund inflows rising. Bitcoin surged following Trump’s presidential win.
Business Hook Daily News Podcast
Good evening! Welcome to Business Hook’s daily news podcast. I’m Avni Raja, and today is November 11, 2024. Let’s dive into the day’s top business stories.
Market Reactions and Economic Data
Asian markets experienced a mixed session as investors digested new economic data and stimulus measures from China. The Chinese government announced a $1.4 trillion package targeting local government debt, although analysts deemed it underwhelming. October’s inflation rate of 0.3% fell short of estimates and declined for the second month in a row. As a result, the CSI 300 saw a slight gain, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped over 1.5%. In India, the Sensex closed below 74,500, and the Nifty ended above 24,100, with a majority of Nifty stocks declining.
Mutual Fund Inflows and Upcoming IPOs
There’s encouraging news in the mutual fund sector, with October seeing net inflows of 2.4 lakh crore rupees, reversing the previous month’s outflows. Record equity inflows have risen to nearly 42,000 crore rupees, reflecting robust domestic investor confidence. In the IPO space, LG Electronics prepares to raise $1.5 billion by listing its Indian arm, with banks like Axis Capital involved in the process, potentially leading to an IPO as early as 2025.
Cryptocurrency Surge
In cryptocurrency news, Bitcoin has achieved new highs, surpassing $82,000. This surge is attributed to Donald Trump’s recent presidential victory, which has favored cryptocurrencies compared to more cautious Democratic approaches. Experts speculate that Bitcoin could surpass $90,000 soon. That’s all for today’s wrap-up. Join us again tomorrow, and check out the Business Hook YouTube channel for more updates.
Source : News Wrap | China Stimulus Disappoints; Sensex & Nifty Slip; Bitcoin Soars Past $82,000
China
China’s Import-Export Trends 2024-25: A Thorough Analysis of the Initial 10 Months
China’s foreign trade statistics for October 2024 show exports surged 11.2% from last year, significantly boosting the trade surplus to RMB 679.1 billion. However, weak domestic demand led to a 1.2% month-on-month decline in imports and exports.
The recently released foreign trade statistics for October and the first 10 months of 2024 reveal significant trends in China’s import-export activities for 2024-25. We will explore these trends by examining the trading structure, methods, partners, products, and sectors involved.
On November 7, 2024, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) released statistics showing that China’s goods exports in October far exceeded expectations. Exports increased by 11.2 percent year-on-year in RMB terms and 12.7 percent in dollar terms, marking the largest expansion since March 2023.
In the first 10 months of 2024, the total value of China’s goods trade reached 36.02 trillion RMB (US$5.05 trillion), reflecting a 5.2 percent year-on-year increase. This includes 20.8 trillion RMB (US$2.89 trillion) in exports (up 6.7 percent) and 15.22 trillion RMB (US$2.09 trillion) in imports (up 3.2 percent). Notably, the trade surplus expanded by 17.6 percent, reaching 5.58 trillion RMB (US$770 billion).
In October, China’s total import and export value reached RMB 3.7 trillion (US$520 billion), marking a 4.6 percent year-on-year increase, which is nearly 4 percentage points higher than the growth rate in September. Exports amounted to RMB 2.19 trillion (US$305 billion), reflecting an 11.2 percent increase, while imports totaled RMB 1.51 trillion (US$210 billion), a 3.7 percent decline. The trade surplus for October was RMB 679.1 billion (US$95 billion).
The double-digit growth in exports for October can be attributed to various factors:
The strong performance in export growth and trade surplus in October indicates that foreign trade continues to contribute significantly to economic growth. Coupled with unexpected counter-cyclical policy measures domestically, this will further enhance market confidence in achieving annual economic targets.
However, it is important to note that imports and exports saw a month-on-month decline of 1.2 percent in October. This decline is primarily due to weak domestic demand, cautious import decisions by market participants, low prices for bulk commodities, and the impact of a higher comparison base from last year.
| This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support. |
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Business
Henry Keswick: The Jardine Scion Who Transformed China’s Business Landscape
Henry Keswick, 86, a key figure in Jardine Matheson, passed away as the U.S. awaited election results, amid heightened tensions in U.S.-China relations during Trump’s presidency.
Henry Keswick’s Legacy
HONG KONG — The world turned its attention to the U.S. presidential election as news broke of Henry Keswick’s passing at the age of 86. A fourth-generation member of the British conglomerate Jardine Matheson, Keswick had a profound influence on the company, which has deep roots in Asia.
Navigating Challenges
Keswick’s leadership spanned significant challenges, including a strained relationship between the U.S. and China, particularly as Donald Trump prepared for his return to the White House. Under his stewardship, Jardine Matheson navigated a complex landscape in retail and real estate that dovetailed with geopolitical shifts.
A Lasting Impact
His contributions to Jardine Matheson and the broader business community have left an indelible mark. As companies reposition themselves amidst evolving international dynamics, Keswick’s legacy will undoubtedly continue to shape the future of the conglomerate he led.
Source : Henry Keswick, the Jardines scion who razed then restored China business
- News Update: China’s Stimulus Falls Short; Sensex and Nifty Decline; Bitcoin Surges Over $82,000
- China’s Import-Export Trends 2024-25: A Thorough Analysis of the Initial 10 Months
- Henry Keswick: The Jardine Scion Who Transformed China’s Business Landscape
- China’s government is about to spend big on stimulus – can it turn around the country’s sluggish economy?
- Data Reveals the Chinese Government’s Popularity is Lower Than State Media Portrays
- Faurecia Relocates Electronics Headquarters from Japan to China – Automotive News
