China
A Biden presidency’s impact on the Asia Pacific
Author: Robert A Manning, Atlantic Council
It may be weeks before the US presidential election is fully settled, though the trajectory suggests a divided government of President Joe Biden and a Republican Senate. Regardless, expect more continuity than change in US policy toward the Asia Pacific, even with a marked shift in tone.
A Biden presidency would not erase the past four years, nor the deepening embedded populism in the United States, but would go a long way towards stopping the bleeding. Biden’s desire to heal the dysfunction will be constrained by a lack of control over the Senate.
A Donald Trump victory would likely have led to more tension within, if not fracturing of, US alliances. The Washington rumour mill suggests Trump contemplating withdrawing from NATO and reducing troops in both South Korea and Japan. Meanwhile, Biden, with a veteran set of Asia hands in his administration, would embrace and seek to strengthen alliances, including with Japan, South Korea and Australia. That bodes well for deterrence.
Biden will promote US values, showcasing an alliance of democracies at a global summit of democracies in 2021 as a fulcrum to counter authoritarian trends and reshape a fraying world order. But some Asian countries may view it as pressure to choose against China.
Regarding US policy toward China, there is a bipartisan consensus that China is a ‘strategic competitor’. That would not change under Biden. But there are important differences about exactly what that means. The Trump administration has not defined the terms, bounds and limits of competition. Instead it has demonised China, pursued economic decoupling and crusaded against the Chinese communist party in speeches by top US officials. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo argued ‘if we don’t change the Communist party, it will change us’. One could be forgiven for concluding, as Beijing apparently has, that the intent is regime change.
In contrast, Biden would likely seek to halt the downward spiral of US–China relations, hoping to craft a framework for competitive coexistence. Two top Biden advisors, Kurt Campbell and Jake Sullivan, wrote in Foreign Affairs that ‘the goal should be to establish favourable terms of coexistence with Beijing in four key competitive domains — military, economic, political and global governance’. This will require sustained and agile diplomacy, domestic support and a curbing of China’s assertive behaviour. Biden would almost certainly move away from the solely United States versus China bilateral approach and forge multilateral coalitions on shared concerns. Beijing seeks stability and is likely to offer a window to test Biden’s wherewithal to reset the US–China relationship.
On US–China economic and technological issues, expect a more prudent approach under Biden. Democrats are no less leery of free trade than Republicans, but a Biden administration would likely work closely with the European Union, Japan and Australia to press China on redressing shared trade grievances in the World Trade Organization, which Biden will work to reform. Such grievances include state subsidies, forced technology transfer, intellectual property rights, and rules and standards for emerging technology like artificial intelligence and 5G.
Expect a more measured and selective economic de-integration rather than half-baked decoupling. On technology, the United States has quietly forged a bipartisan move toward an industrial policy to better compete on semiconductors, 5G and other emerging technology that Biden is comfortable with. Beijing has selectively opened markets, principally finance and automotive vehicles, and Biden may seek to renew talks on a bilateral investment treaty.
A less volatile US–China relationship would impact the wider Indo-Pacific strategy. While the US military footprint expanded under Trump, effectively realising the pivot promised by Obama, it is unlikely to be diminished under Biden. But a strengthening of US alliances and partnerships in the region and expanding the informal network of security cooperation, including the Quad, may be likely.
Biden is likely to be less one-dimensional with regard to an Indo-Pacific strategy, putting more emphasis on regional diplomacy to address security issues and economic ties. Without robust economic underpinnings, an Indo-Pacific strategy may be hollow and unsustainable. With the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) set to expand under Tokyo’s leadership, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic…
Business
Gordonstoun Severs Connections with Business Led by Individual Accused of Espionage for China
Gordonstoun school severed ties with Hampton Group over espionage allegations against chairman Yang Tengbo. He denies involvement and claims to be a victim of political tensions between the UK and China.
Allegations Lead to School’s Decision
Gordonstoun School in Moray has cut ties with Hampton Group International after serious allegations surfaced regarding its chairman, Yang Tengbo, who is accused of being a spy for the Chinese government. Known by the alias "H6," Mr. Tengbo was involved in a deal that aimed to establish five new schools in China affiliated with Gordonstoun. However, the recent allegations compelled the school to terminate their agreement.
Public Denial and Legal Action
In response to the spying claims, Mr. Tengbo publicly revealed his identity, asserting that he has committed no wrongdoing. A close associate of Prince Andrew and a former Gordonstoun student himself, Mr. Tengbo has strenuously denied the accusations, stating that he is a target of the escalating tensions between the UK and China. He has claimed that his mistreatment is politically motivated.
Immigration Challenges and Legal Responses
Yang Tengbo, also known as Chris Yang, has faced additional challenges regarding his immigration status in the UK. After losing an appeal against a ban enacted last year, he reiterated his innocence, condemning media speculation while emphasizing his commitment to clear his name. Gordonstoun, on its part, stated its inability to divulge further details due to legal constraints.
Source : Gordonstoun cuts ties with business chaired by man accused of spying for China
Business
China Dismantles Prominent Uyghur Business Landmark in Xinjiang – Shia Waves
The Chinese government demolished the Rebiya Kadeer Trade Center in Xinjiang, affecting Uyghur culture and commerce, prompting criticism from activists amid concerns over cultural erasure and human rights violations.
Demolition of a Cultural Landmark
The Chinese government recently demolished the Rebiya Kadeer Trade Center in Urumqi, Xinjiang, a vital hub for Uyghur culture and commerce, as reported by VOA. This center, once inhabited by more than 800 predominantly Uyghur-owned businesses, has been deserted since 2009. Authorities forcibly ordered local business owners to vacate the premises before proceeding with the demolition, which took place without any public notice.
Condemnation from Activists
Uyghur rights activists have condemned this demolition, perceiving it as part of China’s broader strategy to undermine Uyghur identity and heritage. The event has sparked heightened international concern regarding China’s policies in Xinjiang, which have been characterized by allegations of mass detentions and cultural suppression, prompting claims of crimes against humanity.
Rebiya Kadeer’s Response
Rebiya Kadeer, the center’s namesake and a notable Uyghur rights advocate, criticized the demolition as a deliberate attempt to erase her legacy. Kadeer, who has been living in exile in the U.S. since her release from imprisonment in 2005, continues to advocate for Uyghur rights. She has expressed that her family members have suffered persecution due to her activism, while the Chinese government has yet to comment on the legal ramifications of the demolition.
Source : China Demolishes Uyghur Business Landmark in Xinjiang – Shia Waves
China
China Expands Nationwide Private Pension Scheme After Two-Year Pilot Program
China’s private pension scheme, previously piloted in 36 cities, will roll out nationwide on December 15, 2024, enabling workers to open tax-deferred accounts. The initiative aims to enhance retirement savings, address aging population challenges, and stimulate financial sector growth.
After a two-year pilot program, China has officially expanded its private pension scheme nationwide. Starting December 15, 2024, workers covered by urban employee basic pension insurance or urban-rural resident basic pension insurance across the country can participate in this supplementary pension scheme. This nationwide rollout represents a significant milestone in China’s efforts to build a comprehensive pension system, addressing the challenges of a rapidly aging population.
On December 12, 2024, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, together with four other departments including the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, announced the nationwide implementation of China’s private pension scheme effective December 15, 2024. The initiative extends eligibility to all workers enrolled in urban employee basic pension insurance or urban-rural resident basic pension insurance.
A notable development is the expansion of tax incentives for private pensions, previously limited to pilot cities, to a national scale. Participants can now enjoy these benefits across China, with government agencies collaborating to ensure seamless implementation and to encourage broad participation through these enhanced incentives.
China first introduced its private pension scheme in November 2022 as a pilot program covering 36 cities and regions, including major hubs like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xi’an, and Chengdu. Under the program, individuals were allowed to open tax-deferred private pension accounts, contributing up to RMB 12,000 (approximately $1,654) annually to invest in a range of retirement products such as bank deposits, mutual funds, commercial pension insurance, and wealth management products.
Read more about China’s private pension pilot program launched two years ago: China Officially Launches New Private Pension Scheme – Who Can Take Part?
The nationwide implementation underscores the Chinese government’s commitment to addressing demographic challenges and promoting economic resilience. By providing tax advantages and expanding access, the scheme aims to incentivize long-term savings and foster greater participation in personal retirement planning.
The reform is expected to catalyze growth in China’s financial and insurance sectors while offering individuals a reliable mechanism to enhance their retirement security.
| This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support. |
Read the rest of the original article.
- Gordonstoun Severs Connections with Business Led by Individual Accused of Espionage for China
- China Dismantles Prominent Uyghur Business Landmark in Xinjiang – Shia Waves
- China Expands Nationwide Private Pension Scheme After Two-Year Pilot Program
- How a scandal over sanitary pads is shaping feminist activism in China
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