China
Mainland China is in no position to take Taiwan by force
Author: Cui Lei, China Institute of International Studies
The situation across the Taiwan Strait has seemed to be on the brink of crisis since 2018. Beijing has sent numerous sorties of military aircraft to conduct exercises near Taiwan and frequently crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait. It has been rumoured that the mainland is considering seizing Taiwan’s outlying islands, suggesting that it is increasingly eager to take Taiwan by force.
With the exception of missile exercises during Taiwan’s first direct presidential election in 1996, Beijing has historically been restrained in its military intimidation, choosing to vent its anger through rhetoric or symbolic sanctions. Its recent assertiveness is best explained by its rising military power status and stronger expressions of motivation for reunification.
Improved amphibious warfare and anti-access/area denial capabilities mean the military balance is tipping in the mainland’s favour over Taiwan and the United States. With increasing national strength, the Chinese leadership believes that continuing to adopt softer policies as it had in the past may give the impression of weakness to both domestic and foreign audiences. Unlike his predecessors, Chinese President Xi Jinping has demonstrated greater intensity in the desire for reunification.
The report of the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2017 demonstrated this enthusiasm, announcing the ‘great rejuvenation’ of the Chinese nation needs to be achieved by 2049, and that the reunification of China is a condition for that.
But the mainland unlikely has any intention to pursue reunification by force anytime soon.
One reason is that the domestic political risks are high if the use of force is not successful. Victory is not yet a forgone conclusion — having prepared for conflict with the mainland for decades, Taiwan has toughened its ability to defend itself. Taiwan’s will is strong. Polls show that 80 per cent of Taiwanese people are willing to defend the island by force.
In the context of the 20th Party Congress in 2022 in particular, Xi needs a stable domestic political environment to ensure the extension of his term as General Secretary of the CCP. Brinkmanship towards an incursion may risk domestic stability, provoke public discontent and stir backlash that could scuttle his leadership.
There are still other options for reunification. Some in China suggest that the possibility of peaceful reunification has not yet been completely lost, and that Taiwan can be corralled into reunification through the so-called ‘Beiping model’. This model is based on 1949 CCP negotiations with the Kuomintang garrison to take over Beiping, now Beijing, without bloodshed, and it could be a cost-effective option to take the outlying islands of Taiwan.
China faces the risk that, if it uses force, the United States might extend full military support to Taiwan, in which case China would end up paying an unpredictable cost to achieve its goal. China is still the weaker party in the power dynamic and, while the economic gap between the two is great, military, technology and financial gaps are greater still. Though some in the United States are wavering on the issue of Taiwan’s defence, the country is unlikely to abandon Taiwan — doing so would mean an embarrassing lapse in security commitments and an unbearable loss of international leadership. Professor Graham Allison once said that the United States and China are more likely to fight a nuclear war over Taiwan than over any other place.
Even if it decides not to send troops to Taiwan, the United States and its allies can effectively isolate China economically, diplomatically and militarily, just as China experienced from the 1950s to the 1970s. Violating norms against aggression and coercion by force would make China a pariah in the international community and prevent it from achieving its modernisation goals by mid-century.
Beijing also lacks a convenient excuse to use force. Far weaker in military terms, Taiwan dare not declare independence and can only maintain the status quo. Meanwhile, the mainland’s legal provisions are vague and can be interpreted flexibly. Article 8 of the Anti-Secession Law stipulates that the mainland may take non-peaceful measures if Taiwan were to ‘secede from China in any name or by any means, or if a major event occurs that will cause Taiwan to secede from China, or if the possibility of peaceful reunification is completely lost’.
Besides an explicit declaration of independence, it is…
Business
China Dismantles Prominent Uyghur Business Landmark in Xinjiang – Shia Waves
The Chinese government demolished the Rebiya Kadeer Trade Center in Xinjiang, affecting Uyghur culture and commerce, prompting criticism from activists amid concerns over cultural erasure and human rights violations.
Demolition of a Cultural Landmark
The Chinese government recently demolished the Rebiya Kadeer Trade Center in Urumqi, Xinjiang, a vital hub for Uyghur culture and commerce, as reported by VOA. This center, once inhabited by more than 800 predominantly Uyghur-owned businesses, has been deserted since 2009. Authorities forcibly ordered local business owners to vacate the premises before proceeding with the demolition, which took place without any public notice.
Condemnation from Activists
Uyghur rights activists have condemned this demolition, perceiving it as part of China’s broader strategy to undermine Uyghur identity and heritage. The event has sparked heightened international concern regarding China’s policies in Xinjiang, which have been characterized by allegations of mass detentions and cultural suppression, prompting claims of crimes against humanity.
Rebiya Kadeer’s Response
Rebiya Kadeer, the center’s namesake and a notable Uyghur rights advocate, criticized the demolition as a deliberate attempt to erase her legacy. Kadeer, who has been living in exile in the U.S. since her release from imprisonment in 2005, continues to advocate for Uyghur rights. She has expressed that her family members have suffered persecution due to her activism, while the Chinese government has yet to comment on the legal ramifications of the demolition.
Source : China Demolishes Uyghur Business Landmark in Xinjiang – Shia Waves
China
China Expands Nationwide Private Pension Scheme After Two-Year Pilot Program
China’s private pension scheme, previously piloted in 36 cities, will roll out nationwide on December 15, 2024, enabling workers to open tax-deferred accounts. The initiative aims to enhance retirement savings, address aging population challenges, and stimulate financial sector growth.
After a two-year pilot program, China has officially expanded its private pension scheme nationwide. Starting December 15, 2024, workers covered by urban employee basic pension insurance or urban-rural resident basic pension insurance across the country can participate in this supplementary pension scheme. This nationwide rollout represents a significant milestone in China’s efforts to build a comprehensive pension system, addressing the challenges of a rapidly aging population.
On December 12, 2024, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, together with four other departments including the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, announced the nationwide implementation of China’s private pension scheme effective December 15, 2024. The initiative extends eligibility to all workers enrolled in urban employee basic pension insurance or urban-rural resident basic pension insurance.
A notable development is the expansion of tax incentives for private pensions, previously limited to pilot cities, to a national scale. Participants can now enjoy these benefits across China, with government agencies collaborating to ensure seamless implementation and to encourage broad participation through these enhanced incentives.
China first introduced its private pension scheme in November 2022 as a pilot program covering 36 cities and regions, including major hubs like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xi’an, and Chengdu. Under the program, individuals were allowed to open tax-deferred private pension accounts, contributing up to RMB 12,000 (approximately $1,654) annually to invest in a range of retirement products such as bank deposits, mutual funds, commercial pension insurance, and wealth management products.
Read more about China’s private pension pilot program launched two years ago: China Officially Launches New Private Pension Scheme – Who Can Take Part?
The nationwide implementation underscores the Chinese government’s commitment to addressing demographic challenges and promoting economic resilience. By providing tax advantages and expanding access, the scheme aims to incentivize long-term savings and foster greater participation in personal retirement planning.
The reform is expected to catalyze growth in China’s financial and insurance sectors while offering individuals a reliable mechanism to enhance their retirement security.
This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support. |
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China
How a scandal over sanitary pads is shaping feminist activism in China
Chinese sanitary pad brands face scandal over misleading product quality and pH levels. Consumer outrage grows amid larger issues of women’s health neglect and activism for better standards linked to declining fertility rates.
A string of prominent sanitary pad brands in China have become embroiled in a scandal about the quality of their products. The controversy began in early November when consumers complained that that the advertised lengths of many sanitary pads were misleading.
Then, a few days later, customers discovered that many pads had pH levels similar to textiles such as curtains and tablecloths that do not come into frequent contact with skin, potentially causing irritation or harm to users.
The anger only intensified when ABC, one of the companies at the centre of the controversy, responded dismissively to concerned consumers. ABC emphasised that it was complying with national standards, and reportedly replied to a complaint with: “If you cannot accept it, then you can choose not to buy it”.
Chinese companies have since apologised for their sub-par products, and ABC has even said that it was “deeply sorry” for its “inappropriate” response. But for many women in China, this scandal is about more than just defective products. It is part of a troubling pattern in which women’s health and dignity is blatantly disregarded.
In 2022, Chinese women took to social media to advocate for sanitary pads to be sold on trains. Their demands were swiftly dismissed, with China Railway saying sanitary pads were “private items” that women should prepare for themselves in advance.
Some people on the internet echoed this sentiment, arguing that it was inappropriate and unhygienic to sell sanitary pads on trains. “You don’t want sanitary pads sold alongside food, do you?”, one wrote.
Remarks like this laid bare not only the stigma surrounding menstrual blood in China, where it is seen as polluting and shameful, but also the widespread ignorance among men about menstruation. This was again highlighted by one social media user who questioned absurdly: “Why can’t women just hold it in?” The recent scandal over poor quality sanitary pads is yet another chapter in this story.
The neglect of women’s basic needs in China has worsened with the government’s push for higher birth rates. China’s ruling Communist party began actively promoting higher birth rates in the mid-2010s after decades of limiting most families to one child. The push is driven primarily by the state’s concerns over an ageing population and a shrinking labour force.
This pro-natalist agenda, which has been bolstered by media campaigns urging women to prioritise marriage and motherhood, has pressured many to sacrifice their education and careers. In anticipation of having to provide paid maternity leave, employers also often discriminate in the processes of hiring and promotions.
Meanwhile, feminist advocacy faces censorship and suppression. This has included the shutdown of influential media platforms like Feminist Voices and the blocking of #MeToo-related hashtags. Activists have resorted to creative methods, such as using symbols like the “Rice Bunny” (a term that is pronounced “mi tu” in Chinese) emoji, to navigate strict surveillance and content filtering that targets discussions on gender equality.
Why the #RiceBunny hashtag has become China’s #MeToo.
Fighting for change
Women in China are now rallying for higher standards in the production and regulation of sanitary products. They are actively submitting comments via the government’s online platform for the public to provide feedback to standard setting officials.
On November 22, a representative from the organisation responsible for drafting the new standards stated that public feedback had been heard and will be considered in the process. However, this response is far from satisfactory. The same companies that produce sanitary pads in China are heavily involved in setting these standards.
Women’s active involvement in shaping the revision of national standards is reflective of a consistent strategy in which they use government-provided channels for political participation. Yet women in China have now also started to link the issue of low-quality sanitary products to broader societal challenges, including falling fertility rates.
In the 1970s, when China first implemented its one-child policy, over six children were born for every woman of childbearing age. This had dropped to an average of one-and-a-half by the 2000s. At the same time, there is a growing prevalence of infertility in China. A 2021 study published in The Lancet, a peer-reviewed medical journal, shows that China’s infertility rate rose from 12% in 2007 to 18% in 2020. One in every 5.6 Chinese couples of childbearing age faces challenges in conceiving a baby.
Throughout the recent sanitary pad scandal, hashtags such as #LowQualitySanitaryPadsCauseFemaleIntertility have spread across Chinese social media platforms such as Weibo. By aligning their grievances with national anxieties, feminist activists in China are strategically reframing their demands to align with state priorities.
Such an approach may, on the one hand, risk unintentionally reinforcing existing stereotypes about women and societal expectations. But it may also increase the likelihood of their concerns being addressed, as it presents better sanitary product standards as a critical public health and national concern rather than a “women’s issue” that can simply be dismissed.
Feminist activism in China looks to be growing in maturity. Narratives and strategies are now being carefully crafted to ensure maximum impact both in public and policy arenas.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.