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What Southeast Asia wants from the Biden presidency

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A worker pushes a wheelbarrow at Walini tunnel construction site for Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Railway in West Bandung regency, West Java province, Indonesia, 21 February 2019 (Photo: Reuters/Willy Kurniawan).

Author: Dewi Fortuna Anwar, P2P-LIPI

Southeast Asians are predisposed to welcome the Biden presidency after four years of tumultuous US foreign policy under Donald Trump. There is a general belief that President Biden’s foreign policy will be similar to that under the former president Barack Obama, given that Biden served as vice president in that administration. But the United States faces an uphill battle to re-engage and strengthen its alliances and partnerships in the region.

The Obama administration was a strong supporter of multilateralism, prioritised diplomacy as the primary tool of US foreign policy, cooperated with allies and partners to tackle common challenges and paid special attention to ASEAN. These policies were largely overturned by Trump.

Southeast Asian states increasingly see US policy towards the region as a function of the US–China relationship. China’s growing influence in the region prompted Obama to strengthen US relations with Southeast Asian allies and to pay more attention to ASEAN. After leaving office in 2016, Biden wrote that the incoming Trump administration needed to continue working with ASEAN to advance a rules-based international order and cultivate a relationship with China where competition and cooperation could co-exist.

Trump’s neglect of ASEAN, exemplified by his failure to appoint a US ambassador to the body and frequent absences from ASEAN-related summits, has contributed to a lack of confidence in the United States as a reliable strategic partner among Southeast Asian countries.

The ISEAS-Yusok Ishak Institute’s The State of Southeast Asia: 2020 Survey Report showed that the majority of those surveyed had little or no confidence in the United States as a reliable strategic partner. Compared with the Obama administration, 77 per cent of respondents observed that US engagement with Southeast Asia declined under Trump. Despite this, 60.3 per cent of respondents believed that US reliability could be improved with a change in American leadership.

The Institute’s same survey for 2021 — published shortly after Biden’s inauguration — shows a much more favourable attitude towards the United States. A full 68.6 per cent of respondents predict that US engagement in the region will increase under Biden. A further 55.4 per cent considered the United States a reliable strategic partner and provider of regional security.

In the face of US–China rivalry, the default position of ASEAN is not to take sides while enhancing ASEAN’s resilience, including to external pressure. If ASEAN were forced to take sides, however, the ISEAS surveys show that the majority of respondents favour the United States over China — 61.5 per cent chose to align with the United States in the 2021 survey report, compared to 53.6 per cent in the 2020 survey.

The change in attitude of four ASEAN countries is particularly noteworthy. Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand all favoured aligning with China in 2020, but preferred to align with the United States in 2021. Indonesia has shown the most significant change in attitude with a 16 per cent swing to the United States in 2021.

The ISEAS surveys demonstrate that China is seen as the most influential economic power by 70–80 per cent of ASEAN respondents. Perceived US economic influence also trails far behind China. China is seen as the most influential political and strategic power in Southeast Asia, although this view’s popularity decreased from 52.2 per cent in 2020 to 49.1 per cent in 2021. The perception of US influence increased from 26.7 per cent in 2020 to 30.4 per cent in 2021.

The Biden administration has clearly engendered goodwill and high expectations among ASEAN countries. In light of Southeast Asia’s growing distrust of China — both because of its economic presence and increasingly assertive foreign policy, particularly in the South China Sea — ASEAN countries are eager to welcome a more engaged US policy in the region.

ASEAN countries would like to see more American investment as an alternative source of funding. However, the United States faces an uphill battle to compete with China in providing foreign direct investment (FDI) for infrastructure development in the region. For instance, according to the Indonesian Board of Investment, China was the second largest source of FDI to Indonesia in 2019 with US$4.74 billion worth of investment, while the US came a distant 8th with US$989.3 million worth of investment.

The majority of ASEAN member states will welcome greater US engagement, particularly in…

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Business

Gordonstoun Severs Connections with Business Led by Individual Accused of Espionage for China

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Gordonstoun school severed ties with Hampton Group over espionage allegations against chairman Yang Tengbo. He denies involvement and claims to be a victim of political tensions between the UK and China.


Allegations Lead to School’s Decision

Gordonstoun School in Moray has cut ties with Hampton Group International after serious allegations surfaced regarding its chairman, Yang Tengbo, who is accused of being a spy for the Chinese government. Known by the alias "H6," Mr. Tengbo was involved in a deal that aimed to establish five new schools in China affiliated with Gordonstoun. However, the recent allegations compelled the school to terminate their agreement.

Public Denial and Legal Action

In response to the spying claims, Mr. Tengbo publicly revealed his identity, asserting that he has committed no wrongdoing. A close associate of Prince Andrew and a former Gordonstoun student himself, Mr. Tengbo has strenuously denied the accusations, stating that he is a target of the escalating tensions between the UK and China. He has claimed that his mistreatment is politically motivated.

Immigration Challenges and Legal Responses

Yang Tengbo, also known as Chris Yang, has faced additional challenges regarding his immigration status in the UK. After losing an appeal against a ban enacted last year, he reiterated his innocence, condemning media speculation while emphasizing his commitment to clear his name. Gordonstoun, on its part, stated its inability to divulge further details due to legal constraints.

Source : Gordonstoun cuts ties with business chaired by man accused of spying for China

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China Dismantles Prominent Uyghur Business Landmark in Xinjiang – Shia Waves

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The Chinese government demolished the Rebiya Kadeer Trade Center in Xinjiang, affecting Uyghur culture and commerce, prompting criticism from activists amid concerns over cultural erasure and human rights violations.


Demolition of a Cultural Landmark

The Chinese government recently demolished the Rebiya Kadeer Trade Center in Urumqi, Xinjiang, a vital hub for Uyghur culture and commerce, as reported by VOA. This center, once inhabited by more than 800 predominantly Uyghur-owned businesses, has been deserted since 2009. Authorities forcibly ordered local business owners to vacate the premises before proceeding with the demolition, which took place without any public notice.

Condemnation from Activists

Uyghur rights activists have condemned this demolition, perceiving it as part of China’s broader strategy to undermine Uyghur identity and heritage. The event has sparked heightened international concern regarding China’s policies in Xinjiang, which have been characterized by allegations of mass detentions and cultural suppression, prompting claims of crimes against humanity.

Rebiya Kadeer’s Response

Rebiya Kadeer, the center’s namesake and a notable Uyghur rights advocate, criticized the demolition as a deliberate attempt to erase her legacy. Kadeer, who has been living in exile in the U.S. since her release from imprisonment in 2005, continues to advocate for Uyghur rights. She has expressed that her family members have suffered persecution due to her activism, while the Chinese government has yet to comment on the legal ramifications of the demolition.

Source : China Demolishes Uyghur Business Landmark in Xinjiang – Shia Waves

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China

China Expands Nationwide Private Pension Scheme After Two-Year Pilot Program

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China’s private pension scheme, previously piloted in 36 cities, will roll out nationwide on December 15, 2024, enabling workers to open tax-deferred accounts. The initiative aims to enhance retirement savings, address aging population challenges, and stimulate financial sector growth.


After a two-year pilot program, China has officially expanded its private pension scheme nationwide. Starting December 15, 2024, workers covered by urban employee basic pension insurance or urban-rural resident basic pension insurance across the country can participate in this supplementary pension scheme. This nationwide rollout represents a significant milestone in China’s efforts to build a comprehensive pension system, addressing the challenges of a rapidly aging population.

On December 12, 2024, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, together with four other departments including the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, announced the nationwide implementation of China’s private pension scheme effective December 15, 2024. The initiative extends eligibility to all workers enrolled in urban employee basic pension insurance or urban-rural resident basic pension insurance.

A notable development is the expansion of tax incentives for private pensions, previously limited to pilot cities, to a national scale. Participants can now enjoy these benefits across China, with government agencies collaborating to ensure seamless implementation and to encourage broad participation through these enhanced incentives.

China first introduced its private pension scheme in November 2022 as a pilot program covering 36 cities and regions, including major hubs like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xi’an, and Chengdu. Under the program, individuals were allowed to open tax-deferred private pension accounts, contributing up to RMB 12,000 (approximately $1,654) annually to invest in a range of retirement products such as bank deposits, mutual funds, commercial pension insurance, and wealth management products.

Read more about China’s private pension pilot program launched two years ago: China Officially Launches New Private Pension Scheme – Who Can Take Part?

The nationwide implementation underscores the Chinese government’s commitment to addressing demographic challenges and promoting economic resilience. By providing tax advantages and expanding access, the scheme aims to incentivize long-term savings and foster greater participation in personal retirement planning.

The reform is expected to catalyze growth in China’s financial and insurance sectors while offering individuals a reliable mechanism to enhance their retirement security.


This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in ChinaHong KongVietnamSingapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support.

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