China
Australia’s war drum to nowhere on Taiwan
Author: Thomas Wilkins, University of Sydney
Recent comments made by Australian officials about Taiwan over the past few weeks are less statecraft and more reminiscent of a fictional account of the leadup to a Third World War.
During an ANZAC Day speech, the Secretary of the Australian Department of Home Affairs Mike Pezzullo warned that ‘in a world of perpetual tension and dread, the drums of war beat’. Australian Defence Minister Peter Dutton similarly mused that conflict in the Taiwan Strait should not be discounted, stressing the preparedness of the Australian Defence Force in the event of a potential regional conflict. Meanwhile, Assistant Defence Minister Andrew Hastie reminded military personnel that their ‘core business’ was the ‘application of lethal violence’.
These most recent comments come against a backdrop of Australian government statements and documents that consistently identify the Indo-Pacific as an arena of ‘greater strategic competition’ as the US–China rivalry gathers apace. Yet those very same comments predictably triggered another round of so-called ‘wolf-warrior diplomacy’ from Chinese officials and commentators.
Chinese Major General Jin Yinan decried Australia as ‘white supremacist’ for lending moral support to Taiwan. The Global Times, a mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, claimed Australia was ‘sick’ and accused Canberra of ‘trying to muddy the waters on the Taiwan question’. It also warned that ‘if Australia uses force against China, China will definitely deal a heavy blow to Australia’. At a time when Washington has sought to engage Taiwan more closely, this was a clear warning to Canberra not to follow suit.
Australian politicians and strategic analysts need to prudently reflect on how best to manage the issue while considering the broader strategic context of a deteriorating regional security environment and fractious bilateral relations with Beijing. Yet Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison took things further after he appeared to confuse the one-China Policy with the ‘one country, two systems’ model in Hong Kong — a position he obstinately refused to correct.
Not only did Morrison’s comments emphatically contradict Australia’s official policy, but they also offended both sides of the political divide in Taiwan. After witnessing Hong Kong’s grim experience under the ‘one country, two systems’ model with the Chinese-backed national security law and subsequent crackdown on civil-society, Taiwan has come to categorically reject this formula with a new vigour. Morrison muddied the waters by sending out the wrong message on a highly sensitive issue for the region.
Observers should be alarmed at Prime Minister Morrison’s seeming incomprehension, especially given the stakes for regional stability and security. There is a consensus that any violent resolution of the Taiwan issue would be calamitous for the region, with Australian Chief of Defence Staff Angus Campbell declaring that the ‘future of China and Taiwan needs to be a future that is resolved peacefully’ and warning that any war would be ‘disastrous’ for all involved. This includes Australia, since any US military involvement would likely bring pressure upon Canberra to activate the ANZUS alliance treaty, and potentially drag in a range of US allies. The loss of life and economic costs would be catastrophic.
Still, there are ongoing questions about how Canberra can strike the right note on such a charged issue. While Australia is caught between principled support for a fellow democracy and the risks of supporting the United States and being entangled in an actual military crisis, it is difficult to see how Canberra’s recent tub-thumping rhetoric represents a coherent diplomatic posture.
Former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd contends that ‘the public language of Morrison, Dutton and Pezzullo on China, Taiwan and the possibility of war in the last week serves zero national security purpose’. Strategic scholar and former secretary of the Australian Department of Defence Hugh White argues that ‘[Australia’s] best interests would be served by urging [US President Joe Biden] to be cautious, and by being cautious ourselves’.
Perhaps it is best for Canberra not to make too much ‘noise’. Australia cannot on its own substantially affect a resolution of the situation in the Taiwan Strait through diplomacy. In order to avoid a nightmare scenario in the Pacific, Australian politicians should calm down their rhetoric while scrupulously…
China
China and India Foster Trust on the Road to Reconciliation
On October 23, 2024, Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi endorsed troop withdrawals along their disputed border, signaling a shift toward normalcy in China-India relations influenced by economic pressures and pragmatic leadership.
Recent Diplomatic Progress
On 23 October 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met on the sidelines of the BRICS conference in Kazan, Russia. This marked their first delegate-level meeting in five years, during which they reaffirmed an agreement to disengage their militaries along the disputed border. Within a week, both nations initiated troop withdrawals, effectively restoring the status quo to its pre-2020 conditions.
Historical Context of Tensions
The border dispute between China and India, which dates back to colonial times, has led to significant hostilities, including a war in 1962. Both countries have maintained distinct perspectives on the boundary, prompting occasional escalations. Recent tensions have largely arisen from the rise of nationalist leaders and the shifting landscape of international politics, which have intensified the rivalry between the two nations.
Implications for Global Relations
The Xi–Modi meeting drew international attention due to its potential impact on regional dynamics. While some analysts view the disengagement as a positive step for bilateral relations, others suggest it is merely a tactical pause rather than a strategic shift. The outcome of this development remains critical to understanding the interplay between China, India, and the broader global geopolitical landscape.
Source : China and India rebuild trust on the path to reconciliation
Business
Nigeria and China Revive Currency Swap Agreement – Guardian Nigeria
Nigeria and China have renewed their currency swap deal, enhancing economic cooperation and facilitating trade between the two nations, as reported by Guardian Nigeria.
Currency Swap Deal Renewed
Nigeria and China have officially renewed their currency swap agreement, which is vital for strengthening economic ties between the two nations. This deal is designed to enhance trade relations, making transactions more efficient and less vulnerable to fluctuations in foreign exchange markets.
Benefits for Both Nations
The renewed agreement allows both countries to conduct trade using their local currencies, thereby reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar. This initiative is expected to foster economic stability and boost bilateral trade, benefiting businesses on both sides significantly.
Future Prospects
As the agreement takes effect, it is anticipated that Nigeria will experience easier access to Chinese goods and investments. This partnership not only promises immediate economic advantages but also signals a long-term commitment to closer collaboration between Nigeria and China, paving the way for future developments in trade and infrastructure.
Source : Nigeria, China renew currency swap deal – Guardian Nigeria
China
China Restarts Live Rock Lobster Imports from Australia
Australian red meat and live rock lobster exports to China resumed, improving bilateral trade relations after political tensions since 2020. This development aligns with a timetable set by leaders Albanese and Li, enhancing economic ties and benefiting both nations ahead of Lunar New Year.
This announcement comes just two weeks after the resumption of Australian red meat exports to China on December 4, 2024, signaling a broader thaw in bilateral trade relations. The restoration of both live rock lobster and red meat exports follows a timetable set by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Chinese Premier Li Qiang on October 10, 2024. During a meeting at the ASEAN Summit in Vientiane, Laos, the two leaders agreed to restore the full live rock lobster trade by the end of 2024. The timing of the resumption will allow Chinese consumers to enjoy Australian lobster just in time for the Lunar New Year celebrations, a development that Australian Trade and Tourism Minister Don Farrell described as an “excellent result” for both the Australian lobster industry and Chinese consumers.
The resumption of lobster exports is not only an economic boon but also an important step in stabilizing the broader relationship between China and Australia. China is Australia’s largest trading partner, and the resumption of trade in high-value products like lobster helps to reinforce the importance of a constructive economic relationship for both countries.
In addition to the lobster trade, Australian exports to China have been gradually recovering since the political tensions of 2020. Prior to the imposition of trade barriers, China was Australia’s largest export market for a wide range of goods, including agricultural products, resources, and services. In 2023, China imported approximately US$155.6 billion worth of Australian goods, up slightly from the previous year. Overall, China remains a critical partner for Australia, accounting for over a third of Australia’s total goods exports, with US$204 billion worth of goods traded in 2023 alone.
According to Australian Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry Julie Collins, the resumption of lobster exports is particularly symbolic as it marks the final removal of trade barriers that have plagued the bilateral trade relationship since 2020.
Australia’s trade with China has faced turbulence in recent years, particularly during the tenure of former Prime Minister Scott Morrison. In 2020, Australia’s decision to align closely with the United States and sign the AUKUS security pact led to a sharp deterioration in relations with China, with Australia suffering trade restrictions on a range of products, including barley, wine, lobster, and beef. These disruptions affected an estimated A$20 billion worth of Australian exports.
Despite these challenges, the broader trade relationship has remained a cornerstone of Australia’s economic strategy. China has been Australia’s largest trading partner for over 15 years, and in 2023, China was the largest importer of Australian agricultural products, resources, and services. The Australia-China Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA), which came into force in December 2015, played a crucial role in securing preferential access to the Chinese market, particularly for agricultural products. ChAFTA has also allowed Australia to maintain a competitive edge over other major agricultural exporters like the United States, Canada, and the European Union.
| This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support. |
Read the rest of the original article.
- China and India Foster Trust on the Road to Reconciliation
- Nigeria and China Revive Currency Swap Agreement – Guardian Nigeria
- China Restarts Live Rock Lobster Imports from Australia
- New modelling shows how Trump’s trade tariffs will hurt – and help – New Zealand
- China Provides Clarification on the Implementation of Article 88 (1) of the New Company Law
- China Unveils Draft Catalogue to Promote Foreign Investment
