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US–China rivalry needs more clarity and less polarity

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(L to R): Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, European Council President Charles Michel, U.S. President Joe Biden, Japan's Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Italy's Prime Minister Mario Draghi, France's President Emmanuel Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel pose for a family photograph of the G7 summit in Carbis Bay, Cornwall, England on 11 June 2021 (Photo:Reuters/The Yomiuri Shimbun).

Author: John Wright, US Air Force

A daily barrage of US–China military alarms fill inboxes and news feeds. While many of these reports genuinely attempt to understand this rivalry, more often than not they create fear, confusion and uncertainty. It is important to brush past this overwhelming ‘fog of more’ and get back to basics.

To understand the US–China military rivalry it is important to grasp its main cause — conflict stemming from two competing grand strategies. China wishes to assert its own brand of leadership and reclaim its regional hegemonic crown. The United States prefers no regional hegemons at all, and especially not one that does not share common values and respect for the current rules-based order.

These grand strategies are integral parts of both states’ efforts to survive. They are not ‘worldviews’, ‘ideologies’ or ‘wish lists’. They are measurable, tangible goals that come with advantageous security consequences for one state at the expense of others. Each strategy is mutually exclusive, and neither state stands a realistic chance of convincing the other to change.

Strategy is simply the finding of ways to achieve objectives — within the realm of the possible — in the endless search for a better peace. But strategy is constrained by statecraft, the specific actions a country can take to implement strategy, and this is immensely complicated. Military posturing is a tool of statecraft as much as it is a component of strategy, but its intricacy means that strategy often takes a back seat to statecraft and its ‘tyranny of the now’.

China and the United States must both contend with statecraft from remarkably similar positions. US foreign policy and military posture is synthesised by an often contradictory multitude of bureaucrats and specialists who all see foreign policy in a particular light. Similarly in China, rank-conscious individuals compete for their leaders’ attention in guiding foreign policy and military posture. Beijing’s ability to centrally marshal its military posture and foreign policy is often oversold due to the opaqueness of its government.

Both states are constrained by the same things — using the right resources and executing a coordinated response to events. For instance, when China sent a five-vessel flotilla through the Bering Strait in 2015, it calculated the move would poke the United States in the eye as a territorial violation. After US authorities declared the voyage ‘not threatening’ and watched it pass unopposed in a manner consistent with international law of the sea, China was clearly flummoxed.

In December 2016, a then president-elect Donald Trump tweeted his disapproval of the Chinese theft of a US Navy underwater drone without first discussing options with the rest of the administration, which generated additional frustration.

Believe it or not, these blunders are good news for the US–China military rivalry. Statecraft’s pace naturally slows down decision-making, providing more time to defuse situations before they become crises.

US–China watchers should not concern themselves with how many aircraft China launches towards Japanese airspace, or how many vessels the United States sails through the Taiwan Strait. Instead, they should be concerned with developments that lead down the road of miscalculation. For instance, when one side mistakenly believes going to war outweighs the benefits of not going to war.

Miscalculation begins with misunderstanding. The urgency behind military posture decisions are often perplexing. One need look no further than the irritated response from China following the US deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Air Defense system in South Korea in 2017. This was a time of tense military standoff between the United States and North Korea, demonstrating how well-meaning military deployments can be misunderstood through a different lens.

There is a danger if misunderstandings begin to affect military credibility — the belief a rival will actually carry out a threat. No deterrence can happen in a situation where neither rival believes the other will actually follow through. In a world where the United States and China blame each other for their problems, this is a real threat.

To manage the military rivalry, both states should seek a balanced force posture which lowers the risk of military encounters. The United States will seek to reprioritise its preferred instruments of national power away from military and economic, and toward more diplomatic and information-based power. The Biden…

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Business

China Dismantles Prominent Uyghur Business Landmark in Xinjiang – Shia Waves

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The Chinese government demolished the Rebiya Kadeer Trade Center in Xinjiang, affecting Uyghur culture and commerce, prompting criticism from activists amid concerns over cultural erasure and human rights violations.


Demolition of a Cultural Landmark

The Chinese government recently demolished the Rebiya Kadeer Trade Center in Urumqi, Xinjiang, a vital hub for Uyghur culture and commerce, as reported by VOA. This center, once inhabited by more than 800 predominantly Uyghur-owned businesses, has been deserted since 2009. Authorities forcibly ordered local business owners to vacate the premises before proceeding with the demolition, which took place without any public notice.

Condemnation from Activists

Uyghur rights activists have condemned this demolition, perceiving it as part of China’s broader strategy to undermine Uyghur identity and heritage. The event has sparked heightened international concern regarding China’s policies in Xinjiang, which have been characterized by allegations of mass detentions and cultural suppression, prompting claims of crimes against humanity.

Rebiya Kadeer’s Response

Rebiya Kadeer, the center’s namesake and a notable Uyghur rights advocate, criticized the demolition as a deliberate attempt to erase her legacy. Kadeer, who has been living in exile in the U.S. since her release from imprisonment in 2005, continues to advocate for Uyghur rights. She has expressed that her family members have suffered persecution due to her activism, while the Chinese government has yet to comment on the legal ramifications of the demolition.

Source : China Demolishes Uyghur Business Landmark in Xinjiang – Shia Waves

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China

China Expands Nationwide Private Pension Scheme After Two-Year Pilot Program

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China’s private pension scheme, previously piloted in 36 cities, will roll out nationwide on December 15, 2024, enabling workers to open tax-deferred accounts. The initiative aims to enhance retirement savings, address aging population challenges, and stimulate financial sector growth.


After a two-year pilot program, China has officially expanded its private pension scheme nationwide. Starting December 15, 2024, workers covered by urban employee basic pension insurance or urban-rural resident basic pension insurance across the country can participate in this supplementary pension scheme. This nationwide rollout represents a significant milestone in China’s efforts to build a comprehensive pension system, addressing the challenges of a rapidly aging population.

On December 12, 2024, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, together with four other departments including the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, announced the nationwide implementation of China’s private pension scheme effective December 15, 2024. The initiative extends eligibility to all workers enrolled in urban employee basic pension insurance or urban-rural resident basic pension insurance.

A notable development is the expansion of tax incentives for private pensions, previously limited to pilot cities, to a national scale. Participants can now enjoy these benefits across China, with government agencies collaborating to ensure seamless implementation and to encourage broad participation through these enhanced incentives.

China first introduced its private pension scheme in November 2022 as a pilot program covering 36 cities and regions, including major hubs like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xi’an, and Chengdu. Under the program, individuals were allowed to open tax-deferred private pension accounts, contributing up to RMB 12,000 (approximately $1,654) annually to invest in a range of retirement products such as bank deposits, mutual funds, commercial pension insurance, and wealth management products.

Read more about China’s private pension pilot program launched two years ago: China Officially Launches New Private Pension Scheme – Who Can Take Part?

The nationwide implementation underscores the Chinese government’s commitment to addressing demographic challenges and promoting economic resilience. By providing tax advantages and expanding access, the scheme aims to incentivize long-term savings and foster greater participation in personal retirement planning.

The reform is expected to catalyze growth in China’s financial and insurance sectors while offering individuals a reliable mechanism to enhance their retirement security.


This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in ChinaHong KongVietnamSingapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support.

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China

How a scandal over sanitary pads is shaping feminist activism in China

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Chinese sanitary pad brands face scandal over misleading product quality and pH levels. Consumer outrage grows amid larger issues of women’s health neglect and activism for better standards linked to declining fertility rates.

A string of prominent sanitary pad brands in China have become embroiled in a scandal about the quality of their products. The controversy began in early November when consumers complained that that the advertised lengths of many sanitary pads were misleading.

Then, a few days later, customers discovered that many pads had pH levels similar to textiles such as curtains and tablecloths that do not come into frequent contact with skin, potentially causing irritation or harm to users.

The anger only intensified when ABC, one of the companies at the centre of the controversy, responded dismissively to concerned consumers. ABC emphasised that it was complying with national standards, and reportedly replied to a complaint with: “If you cannot accept it, then you can choose not to buy it”.

Chinese companies have since apologised for their sub-par products, and ABC has even said that it was “deeply sorry” for its “inappropriate” response. But for many women in China, this scandal is about more than just defective products. It is part of a troubling pattern in which women’s health and dignity is blatantly disregarded.

In 2022, Chinese women took to social media to advocate for sanitary pads to be sold on trains. Their demands were swiftly dismissed, with China Railway saying sanitary pads were “private items” that women should prepare for themselves in advance.

Some people on the internet echoed this sentiment, arguing that it was inappropriate and unhygienic to sell sanitary pads on trains. “You don’t want sanitary pads sold alongside food, do you?”, one wrote.

Remarks like this laid bare not only the stigma surrounding menstrual blood in China, where it is seen as polluting and shameful, but also the widespread ignorance among men about menstruation. This was again highlighted by one social media user who questioned absurdly: “Why can’t women just hold it in?” The recent scandal over poor quality sanitary pads is yet another chapter in this story.

The neglect of women’s basic needs in China has worsened with the government’s push for higher birth rates. China’s ruling Communist party began actively promoting higher birth rates in the mid-2010s after decades of limiting most families to one child. The push is driven primarily by the state’s concerns over an ageing population and a shrinking labour force.

Read more:
China’s doom loop: a dramatically smaller (and older) population could create a devastating global slowdown

This pro-natalist agenda, which has been bolstered by media campaigns urging women to prioritise marriage and motherhood, has pressured many to sacrifice their education and careers. In anticipation of having to provide paid maternity leave, employers also often discriminate in the processes of hiring and promotions.

Meanwhile, feminist advocacy faces censorship and suppression. This has included the shutdown of influential media platforms like Feminist Voices and the blocking of #MeToo-related hashtags. Activists have resorted to creative methods, such as using symbols like the “Rice Bunny” (a term that is pronounced “mi tu” in Chinese) emoji, to navigate strict surveillance and content filtering that targets discussions on gender equality.

Why the #RiceBunny hashtag has become China’s #MeToo.

Fighting for change

Women in China are now rallying for higher standards in the production and regulation of sanitary products. They are actively submitting comments via the government’s online platform for the public to provide feedback to standard setting officials.

On November 22, a representative from the organisation responsible for drafting the new standards stated that public feedback had been heard and will be considered in the process. However, this response is far from satisfactory. The same companies that produce sanitary pads in China are heavily involved in setting these standards.

Women’s active involvement in shaping the revision of national standards is reflective of a consistent strategy in which they use government-provided channels for political participation. Yet women in China have now also started to link the issue of low-quality sanitary products to broader societal challenges, including falling fertility rates.

In the 1970s, when China first implemented its one-child policy, over six children were born for every woman of childbearing age. This had dropped to an average of one-and-a-half by the 2000s. At the same time, there is a growing prevalence of infertility in China. A 2021 study published in The Lancet, a peer-reviewed medical journal, shows that China’s infertility rate rose from 12% in 2007 to 18% in 2020. One in every 5.6 Chinese couples of childbearing age faces challenges in conceiving a baby.

Throughout the recent sanitary pad scandal, hashtags such as #LowQualitySanitaryPadsCauseFemaleIntertility have spread across Chinese social media platforms such as Weibo. By aligning their grievances with national anxieties, feminist activists in China are strategically reframing their demands to align with state priorities.

Such an approach may, on the one hand, risk unintentionally reinforcing existing stereotypes about women and societal expectations. But it may also increase the likelihood of their concerns being addressed, as it presents better sanitary product standards as a critical public health and national concern rather than a “women’s issue” that can simply be dismissed.

Feminist activism in China looks to be growing in maturity. Narratives and strategies are now being carefully crafted to ensure maximum impact both in public and policy arenas.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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