China
China’s real estate sector goes south
Author: Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Bruegel
Chinese real estate developers are desperate to recover from the prolonged lockdowns driven by China’s zero-COVID-19 policy. But the slowdown in home sales is also related to the collapse of household confidence in the country’s real estate market.
The mortgage boycott in China is a direct consequence of the bankruptcies of an increasing number of developers. In 2021, real estate giant Evergrande left behind 1.3 million incomplete housing units for which Chinese households had already used their savings to make large down payments.
Some Chinese households have stopped servicing their mortgages for homes that remain incomplete. According to public data, the average delay in home completions has reached 14 months. Luckily, only a fraction of these cases triggered mortgage payment boycotts.
The problem may spread to other developers, supply chains, banks and local governments as land sales plummeted by 35 per cent in August. Defaulted developers will suffer the most as their unfinished projects are behind almost all mortgage boycott cases, including Evergrande, SUNAC and Greenland. Homebuyers have lost confidence in the completion of new real estate projects and are refraining from buying new properties.
Housing prices are falling in more than half of China’s cities. New home sales are also plummeting, dropping 23 per cent year-on-year as of August. A drop in pre-sales is important because they account for 86 per cent of Chinese developers’ funding.
Chinese developers are excessively dependent on household financing by international standards. That is a direct consequence of the ‘three red lines’ enforced by Chinese regulators in 2020, prohibiting banks from extending additional lending to developers.
As housing units are left unsold, developers prefer not to invest in new projects. This has a chain effect on related sectors such as construction materials, household appliances and furniture. Fixed asset investment in the real estate sector accounts for one-third of China’s total fixed asset investment, directly affecting growth. The weaker demand for other related sectors also adds to the impact of the real estate demise on GDP growth.
The situation is bad news for financial stability, particularly for banks. Banks are less exposed to developers than mortgages, as banks are not allowed to be heavily exposed to developers. Mortgages account for 11 per cent of banks’ assets, well above their 4.5 per cent of direct exposure to real estate developers. That is why mortgage boycotts — especially if they are extended — are a bigger problem for the asset quality and solvency of banks.
Chinese regulators are preparing for the likely worsening of the asset quality of banks by creating bailout funds. But the financial resources deployed to these rescue funds come from the largest and most creditworthy banking institutions, which points to potential contagion from bad borrowers to good lenders. Policy banks are coming to the rescue with 200 billion RMB ($US28 billion) in loans to ensure that developers can finalise pending projects. The goal is to avoid more mortgage boycotts.
This goal might be achieved if enough resources are put on the table. The much harder goal to achieve is to restore household confidence. With endless mobility restrictions and regulatory changes, households would prefer to save on financial assets rather than invest in real estate that will not appreciate. A survey by the People’s Bank of China in the second quarter of 2022 showed that only 16.2 per cent of households expect an increase in house prices.
Since there is little demand for housing, the People’s Bank of China’s efforts to lower mortgage rates might fail to achieve their goal. To increase demand, a growing number of local governments are easing macroprudential regulations, such as reducing down payments. Yet housing sales decreased even further in September.
Only a herculean effort by policymakers can restore the confidence of homebuyers. Such action could mean financing developers with a blanket guarantee — creating a huge moral hazard. Another option would be to have state-owned developers take over the assets of private developers, which equates to nationalising a sector that has remained largely in private hands. Any quick fix to China’s real estate woes may create an unintended moral hazard problem.
Barring a bailout scenario, there are four important implications for China and Asia. The most general is the increase in systemic risk with a downward effect on…
Business
Gordonstoun Severs Connections with Business Led by Individual Accused of Espionage for China
Gordonstoun school severed ties with Hampton Group over espionage allegations against chairman Yang Tengbo. He denies involvement and claims to be a victim of political tensions between the UK and China.
Allegations Lead to School’s Decision
Gordonstoun School in Moray has cut ties with Hampton Group International after serious allegations surfaced regarding its chairman, Yang Tengbo, who is accused of being a spy for the Chinese government. Known by the alias "H6," Mr. Tengbo was involved in a deal that aimed to establish five new schools in China affiliated with Gordonstoun. However, the recent allegations compelled the school to terminate their agreement.
Public Denial and Legal Action
In response to the spying claims, Mr. Tengbo publicly revealed his identity, asserting that he has committed no wrongdoing. A close associate of Prince Andrew and a former Gordonstoun student himself, Mr. Tengbo has strenuously denied the accusations, stating that he is a target of the escalating tensions between the UK and China. He has claimed that his mistreatment is politically motivated.
Immigration Challenges and Legal Responses
Yang Tengbo, also known as Chris Yang, has faced additional challenges regarding his immigration status in the UK. After losing an appeal against a ban enacted last year, he reiterated his innocence, condemning media speculation while emphasizing his commitment to clear his name. Gordonstoun, on its part, stated its inability to divulge further details due to legal constraints.
Source : Gordonstoun cuts ties with business chaired by man accused of spying for China
Business
China Dismantles Prominent Uyghur Business Landmark in Xinjiang – Shia Waves
The Chinese government demolished the Rebiya Kadeer Trade Center in Xinjiang, affecting Uyghur culture and commerce, prompting criticism from activists amid concerns over cultural erasure and human rights violations.
Demolition of a Cultural Landmark
The Chinese government recently demolished the Rebiya Kadeer Trade Center in Urumqi, Xinjiang, a vital hub for Uyghur culture and commerce, as reported by VOA. This center, once inhabited by more than 800 predominantly Uyghur-owned businesses, has been deserted since 2009. Authorities forcibly ordered local business owners to vacate the premises before proceeding with the demolition, which took place without any public notice.
Condemnation from Activists
Uyghur rights activists have condemned this demolition, perceiving it as part of China’s broader strategy to undermine Uyghur identity and heritage. The event has sparked heightened international concern regarding China’s policies in Xinjiang, which have been characterized by allegations of mass detentions and cultural suppression, prompting claims of crimes against humanity.
Rebiya Kadeer’s Response
Rebiya Kadeer, the center’s namesake and a notable Uyghur rights advocate, criticized the demolition as a deliberate attempt to erase her legacy. Kadeer, who has been living in exile in the U.S. since her release from imprisonment in 2005, continues to advocate for Uyghur rights. She has expressed that her family members have suffered persecution due to her activism, while the Chinese government has yet to comment on the legal ramifications of the demolition.
Source : China Demolishes Uyghur Business Landmark in Xinjiang – Shia Waves
China
China Expands Nationwide Private Pension Scheme After Two-Year Pilot Program
China’s private pension scheme, previously piloted in 36 cities, will roll out nationwide on December 15, 2024, enabling workers to open tax-deferred accounts. The initiative aims to enhance retirement savings, address aging population challenges, and stimulate financial sector growth.
After a two-year pilot program, China has officially expanded its private pension scheme nationwide. Starting December 15, 2024, workers covered by urban employee basic pension insurance or urban-rural resident basic pension insurance across the country can participate in this supplementary pension scheme. This nationwide rollout represents a significant milestone in China’s efforts to build a comprehensive pension system, addressing the challenges of a rapidly aging population.
On December 12, 2024, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, together with four other departments including the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, announced the nationwide implementation of China’s private pension scheme effective December 15, 2024. The initiative extends eligibility to all workers enrolled in urban employee basic pension insurance or urban-rural resident basic pension insurance.
A notable development is the expansion of tax incentives for private pensions, previously limited to pilot cities, to a national scale. Participants can now enjoy these benefits across China, with government agencies collaborating to ensure seamless implementation and to encourage broad participation through these enhanced incentives.
China first introduced its private pension scheme in November 2022 as a pilot program covering 36 cities and regions, including major hubs like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xi’an, and Chengdu. Under the program, individuals were allowed to open tax-deferred private pension accounts, contributing up to RMB 12,000 (approximately $1,654) annually to invest in a range of retirement products such as bank deposits, mutual funds, commercial pension insurance, and wealth management products.
Read more about China’s private pension pilot program launched two years ago: China Officially Launches New Private Pension Scheme – Who Can Take Part?
The nationwide implementation underscores the Chinese government’s commitment to addressing demographic challenges and promoting economic resilience. By providing tax advantages and expanding access, the scheme aims to incentivize long-term savings and foster greater participation in personal retirement planning.
The reform is expected to catalyze growth in China’s financial and insurance sectors while offering individuals a reliable mechanism to enhance their retirement security.
This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support. |
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