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China ‘investigating’ missing Defense Minister Li Shangfu: reports

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Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu is reportedly being investigated by the ruling Chinese Communist Party after being out of the public eye since Aug. 29, according to several Western media reports.

Li is the second senior Chinese official to go missing after the recent disappearance of former Foreign Minister Qin Gang.

Reuters quoted “10 people familiar with the matter” as saying that Li is being probed for corrupt procurement of military equipment, without specifying the kind of equipment involved.

“Eight senior officials from the Chinese military’s procurement unit, which Li led from 2017 to 2022, are also under investigation,” the agency said in a report on Friday, citing two people in direct contact with the military.

The Washington Post quoted U.S. officials as saying that Li, who was last seen in public at the China-Africa Peace and Security Forum in Beijing on Aug. 29, is currently under investigation for “corruption,” and will likely be removed from his post.

An official account of Li’s last public speech from state news agency Xinhua was still available on the website of the State Council on Friday.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that Li will lose his job, while the Financial Times reported that the U.S. government believes him to be under investigation.

Li, 65, has missed meetings with Vietnamese and Singaporean defense leaders in recent weeks, Reuters said in an earlier report quoting sources with direct knowledge of the engagements.

Another disappearance

The reports came after Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, tweeted that Li was also “a no-show” for his planned trip to Vietnam, drawing parallels with Qin Gang’s disappearance.

“President Xi’s cabinet lineup is now resembling Agatha Christie’s novel ‘And Then There Were None,’” Emanuel wrote. “First, Foreign Minister Qin Gang goes missing, then the Rocket Force commanders go missing, and now Defense Minister Li Shangfu hasn’t been seen in public for two weeks. Who’s going to win this unemployment race? China’s youth or Xi’s cabinet?”

Beijing has remained tight-lipped about the whereabouts of Qin, who was replaced as foreign minister by top Communist Party diplomat Wang Yi on July 25.

By July 31, President Xi Jinping had also replaced the commander of the country’s rocket corps — which controls the country’s nuclear missiles — amid media reports of an investigation into his predecessor and his deputies.

China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu attends the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue summit in Singapore in June 2023. Credit: Caroline Chia/Reuters

U.S.-based former PLA Navy Lt. Col. Yao Cheng said that move was part of Xi’s bid to remove any dissenting voices from the highest echelons of military command as part of preparations for a military invasion of democratic Taiwan.

“It’s been the Rocket Force people who don’t want to go along with Xi Jinping’s plan,” Yao told Radio Free Asia at the time. “They don’t want a war — they fear war because they have a very clear idea of what their missile capabilities are.”

1982 army enlistment

Li joined the Communist Party in 1980 and enlisted in the army in 1982, serving as director of the Equipment Development Department of the Central Military Commission and other important positions in procurement. 

By 2022, he had a seat on the party’s 20th Central Committee, and was appointed defense minister in March 2023. 

Li was sanctioned by the U.S. State Department in September 2018 due to transactions with Russian arms dealers.

Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning declined to comment on Li Shangfu’s whereabouts when asked about him during a regular news briefing on Monday.

“I’m not aware of the relevant information,” she told reporters.

The defense ministry didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment from Reuters, while the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo said it had no further comment for the time being, the agency reported.

‘Invisible’ factors

Political commentator Johnny Lau said that arrests of senior officials in China for “corruption” can be highly selective, and have little to do with how corrupt any of them are.

“We have seen in the past that there were a number of factors that were invisible … in the Chinese Communist Party’s ongoing anti-corruption campaign,” Lau said. “In other words, he has chosen [whom to target], and these aren’t genuine anti-corruption cases.”

“They don’t involve the state legal system until they have figured out the impact on the party [of targeting this person], using its disciplinary system,” he said.

“This way of going about it feels a lot like rule by a single individual.”

But Lau said Beijing is unlikely to put on a big show trial, as it did in the case of former Chongqing party chief Bo Xilai and his political associates.

“A lot of these things are dependent on various factors, like internal reshuffles, power struggles and internal shock-dampening,” he said.

But Lau saw the recent changes at the head of the Rocket Force as likely to lead to less military tension, rather than more.

China this week unveiled a “blueprint” for “peaceful unification” including economic incentives and sweeteners for residents of Taiwan, which has never been ruled by Beijing, to move to China’s Fujian province to live and work.

Translated by Luisetta Mudie. Edited by Malcolm Foster.

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China’s GDP Grows 5% in 2024: Key Insights and Main Factors

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In 2024, China’s GDP grew by 5.0%, meeting its annual target. The fourth quarter saw a 5.4% increase, driven by exports and stimulus measures. The secondary industry grew 5.3%, while the tertiary increased by 5.0%, totaling RMB 134.91 trillion.


China’s GDP grew by 5.0 percent in in 2024, meeting the government’s annual economic target set at the beginning of the year. Fourth-quarter GDP exceeded expectations, rising by 5.4 percent, driven by exports and a flurry of stimulus measures. This article provides a brief overview of the key statistics and the main drivers behind this growth.

According to official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on January 17, 2025, China’s GDP reached RMB 134.91 trillion (US$18.80 trillion) in 2024, reflecting a 5.0 percent year-on-year growth at constant prices. During the 2024 Two Sessions, the government set the 2024 GDP growth target of “around 5 percent”.

By sector, the secondary industry expanded by 5.3 percent year-on-year to RMB 49.21 trillion (US$6.85 trillion), the fastest among the three sectors, while the tertiary industry grew by 5.0 percent, reaching RMB 76.56 trillion (US$10.63 trillion) and the primary industry contributed RMB 9.14 trillion (US$1.31 trillion), growing 3.5 percent.

A more detailed analysis of China’s economic performance in 2024 will be provided later.

(1USD = 7.1785 RMB)

 


This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in ChinaHong KongVietnamSingapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support.

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Can science be both open and secure? Nations grapple with tightening research security as China’s dominance grows

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The U.S.-China science agreement renewal narrows collaboration scopes amid security concerns, highlighting tensions. Nations fear espionage, hindering vital international partnerships essential for scientific progress. Openness risks declining.

Amid heightened tensions between the United States and China, the two countries signed a bilateral science and technology agreement on Dec. 13, 2024. The event was billed as a “renewal” of a 45-year-old pact to encourage cooperation, but that may be misleading.

The revised agreement drastically narrows the scope of the original agreement, limits the topics allowed to be jointly studied, closes opportunities for collaboration and inserts a new dispute resolution mechanism.

This shift is in line with growing global concern about research security. Governments are worried about international rivals gaining military or trade advantages or security secrets via cross-border scientific collaborations.

The European Union, Canada, Japan and the United States unveiled sweeping new measures within months of each other to protect sensitive research from foreign interference. But there’s a catch: Too much security could strangle the international collaboration that drives scientific progress.

As a policy analyst and public affairs professor, I research international collaboration in science and technology and its implications for public and foreign policy. I have tracked the increasingly close relationship in science and technology between the U.S. and China. The relationship evolved from one of knowledge transfer to genuine collaboration and competition.

Now, as security provisions change this formerly open relationship, a crucial question emerges: Can nations tighten research security without undermining the very openness that makes science work?

Chinese Premier Deng Xiaoping and American President Jimmy Carter sign the original agreement on cooperation in science and technology in 1979.
Dirck Halstead/Hulton Archive via Getty Images

China’s ascent changes the global landscape

China’s rise in scientific publishing marks a dramatic shift in global research. In 1980, Chinese authors produced less than 2% of research articles included in the Web of Science, a curated database of scholarly output. By my count, they claimed 25% of Web of Science articles by 2023, overtaking the United States and ending its 75-year reign at the top, which had begun in 1948 when it surpassed the United Kingdom.

In 1980, China had no patented inventions. By 2022, Chinese companies led in U.S. patents issued to foreign companies, receiving 40,000 patents compared with fewer than 2,000 for U.K. companies. In the many advanced fields of science and technology, China is at the world frontier, if not in the lead.

Since 2013, China has been the top collaborator in science with the United States. Thousands of Chinese students and scholars have conducted joint research with U.S. counterparts.

Most American policymakers who championed the signing of the 1979 bilateral agreement thought science would liberalize China. Instead, China has used technology to shore up autocratic controls and to build a strong military with an eye toward regional power and global influence.

Leadership in science and technology wins wars and builds successful economies. China’s growing strength, backed by a state-controlled government, is shifting global power. Unlike open societies where research is public and shared, China often keeps its researchers’ work secret while also taking Western technology through hacking, forced technology transfers and industrial espionage. These practices are why many governments are now implementing strict security measures.

Nations respond

The FBI claims China has stolen sensitive technologies and research data to build up its defense capabilities. The China Initiative under the Trump administration sought to root out thieves and spies. The Biden administration did not let up the pressure. The 2022 Chips and Science Act requires the National Science Foundation to establish SECURE – a center to aid universities and small businesses in helping the research community make security-informed decisions. I am working with SECURE to evaluate the effectiveness of its mission.

Other advanced nations are on alert, too. The European Union is advising member states to boost security measures. Japan joined the United States in unveiling sweeping new measures to protect sensitive research from foreign interference and exploitation. European nations increasingly talk about technological sovereignty as a way to protect against exploitation by China. Similarly, Asian nations are wary of China’s intentions when it seeks to cooperate.

Australia has been especially vocal about the threat posed by China’s rise, but others, too, have issued warnings. The Netherlands issued a policy for secure international collaboration. Sweden raised the alarm after a study showed how spies had exploited its universities.

Canada has created the Research Security Centre for public safety and, like the U.S., has established regionally dispersed advisers to provide direct support to universities and researchers. Canada now requires mandatory risk assessment for research partnerships involving sensitive technologies. Similar approaches are underway in Australia and the U.K.

Germany’s 2023 provisions establish compliance units and ethics committees to oversee security-relevant research. They are tasked with advising researchers, mediating disputes and evaluating the ethical and security implications of research projects. The committees emphasize implementing safeguards, controlling access to sensitive data and assessing potential misuse.

Japan’s 2021 policy requires researchers to disclose and regularly update information regarding their affiliations, funding sources – both domestic and international – and potential conflicts of interest. A cross-ministerial R&D management system is unrolling seminars and briefings to educate researchers and institutions on emerging risks and best practices for maintaining research security.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development keeps a running database with more than 206 research security policy statements issued since 2022.

Emmanuelle Charpentier, left, from France, and Jennifer Doudna, from the U.S., shared the Nobel Prize in chemistry in 2020 for their joint research.
Miguel RiopaI/AFP via Getty Images

Openness waning

Emphasis on security can strangle the international collaboration that drives scientific progress. As much as 25% of all U.S. scientific articles result from international collaboration. Evidence shows that international engagement and openness produce higher-impact research. The most elite scientists work across national borders.

Even more critically, science depends on the free flow of ideas and talent across borders. After the Cold War, scientific advancement accelerated as borders opened. While national research output remained flat in recent years, international collaborations showed significant growth, revealing science’s increasingly global nature.

The challenge for research institutions will be implementing these new requirements without creating a climate of suspicion or isolation. Retrenchment to national borders could slow progress. Some degree of risk is inherent in scientific openness, but we may be coming to the end of a global, collaborative era in science.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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China Lures Indonesia to Ease Its Position on the South China Sea

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A China–Indonesia statement on “joint development in overlapping claims” marks a shift in Indonesia’s stance on the Natuna Islands, influenced by China’s economic diplomacy and domestic needs, impacting regional dynamics.


Shift in Indonesia’s Maritime Position

A recent China-Indonesia joint statement advocating for "joint development in areas of overlapping claims" marks a significant departure from Indonesia’s historical claim over its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) near the Natuna Islands. This change reflects Chinese diplomatic efforts, domestic economic pressures, and challenges within Indonesia’s presidential advisory system, pointing to broader implications for Southeast Asian nations as they navigate regional dynamics.

President Prabowo’s State Visit

During President Prabowo Subianto’s state visit to China in November 2024, Indonesia seemingly recognized the validity of Chinese territorial claims in maritime areas, particularly where China’s nine-dash line intersects with its EEZ. While the joint statement from the visit is not legally binding, it represents a notable shift from Indonesia’s traditional opposition to Chinese claims, which it previously argued were inconsistent with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Economic Incentives at Play

China’s appeal to Indonesia’s domestic economic priorities played a crucial role in this rapprochement. The joint statement included commitments from China regarding fisheries cooperation and significant investments, including US$10 billion across various sectors. Additionally, China pledged support for initiatives like a free lunch program for schoolchildren and affordable housing projects, highlighting how economic incentives can influence geopolitical stances in the South China Sea.

Source : China baits Indonesia to soften South China Sea stance

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