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Hong Kong is now over, says China’s former good friend

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Once seen as a good friend of China’s and former chairman of Morgan Stanley in Asia, Stephen Roach has said Hong Kong is over, attributing the city’s “demise” to its domestic politics, China’s structural problems and global developments namely worsening U.S.-China tensions.

“It pains me to admit it, but Hong Kong is now over,” Roach wrote in a commentary in the Financial Times on Monday.

“Since the handover to China in 1997, the Hang Seng index has been basically flat, up only about 5%. Over that same period, the S&P 500 has surged more than fourfold; even mainland China’s underperforming Shanghai Composite has far outdistanced the Hong Kong bourse.”

Roach said the turning point for Hong Kong’s decline was when former Chief Executive Carrie Lam introduced the extradition bill that triggered large-scale democratic demonstrations in 2019. Beijing’s subsequent imposition of the national security law in 2020 “shredded any remaining semblance of local political autonomy,” and cut the 50-year transition period to full Chinese takeover by half, he pointed out. 

With the political change came an economic downturn on the back of waning confidence in the  business and investment environment, as well as the legal framework, as reflected by foreigners, firms and even locals leaving the city.

According to Roach, Hong Kong’s decline was due to a confluence of three factors. The first being local politics. A relatively stable environment was shaken by the 2019-2020 protests, which resulted in the Beijing-centric national security law.

Second was China’s economic structural problems. While the Hong Kong stock market has always played a leveraging role in the mainland economy, the Chinese economy has recently “hit a wall”. Structural problems, especially with high debt, deflation and an aging population, compounded by the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the real estate crisis, have weighed on the Hong Kong market.

Global developments are also not helping, primarily the worsening U.S.-China rivalry since 2018. In addition, the United States’ “friendshoring” campaign has put pressure on Hong Kong’s Asian allies to choose sides between the U.S. and China, driving a wedge between the city and its trading neighbors.

A “shock bomb”

Financial commentator Ngan Po Kong described the commentary as a “shock bomb” which could prompt others to re-evaluate the political risks of doing business in Hong Kong, given Roach wasn’t just an investment banker, but holds sway in economic, political and business circles.

“Roach has been a ‘great friend’ of China’s for many years. He is basically optimistic about China’s economic reform and opening up, whether it is political or financial market performance. You can say he is a representative of the mainstream voice on Wall Street, an important voice that represents investment banks and financial institutions,” Ngan said in a Radio Free Asia Cantonese talk show.

Separately, the American law firm Latham & Watkins LLP, is cutting off access to its international database for its Hong Kong lawyers this month, according to a separate FT report, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter

The report said the move underscores the growing difficulties for multinational companies operating in Hong Kong, which made its name as an international financial hub, and comes after Beijing imposed anti-espionage and data laws restricting information flows out of China. The law firm is also separating the Hong Kong database from the rest of Asia to create a new database shared with the Beijing office, the report said.

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee has vowed to complete legislation of Article 23 of the Basic Law – Hong Kong’s mini constitution – with laws to prohibit acts of treason, secession, sedition and subversion against Beijing. Public consultation for the draft law ends this month.

Translated by RFA staff. Edited by Mike Firn.

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Business

Gordonstoun Severs Connections with Business Led by Individual Accused of Espionage for China

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Gordonstoun school severed ties with Hampton Group over espionage allegations against chairman Yang Tengbo. He denies involvement and claims to be a victim of political tensions between the UK and China.


Allegations Lead to School’s Decision

Gordonstoun School in Moray has cut ties with Hampton Group International after serious allegations surfaced regarding its chairman, Yang Tengbo, who is accused of being a spy for the Chinese government. Known by the alias "H6," Mr. Tengbo was involved in a deal that aimed to establish five new schools in China affiliated with Gordonstoun. However, the recent allegations compelled the school to terminate their agreement.

Public Denial and Legal Action

In response to the spying claims, Mr. Tengbo publicly revealed his identity, asserting that he has committed no wrongdoing. A close associate of Prince Andrew and a former Gordonstoun student himself, Mr. Tengbo has strenuously denied the accusations, stating that he is a target of the escalating tensions between the UK and China. He has claimed that his mistreatment is politically motivated.

Immigration Challenges and Legal Responses

Yang Tengbo, also known as Chris Yang, has faced additional challenges regarding his immigration status in the UK. After losing an appeal against a ban enacted last year, he reiterated his innocence, condemning media speculation while emphasizing his commitment to clear his name. Gordonstoun, on its part, stated its inability to divulge further details due to legal constraints.

Source : Gordonstoun cuts ties with business chaired by man accused of spying for China

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Business

China Dismantles Prominent Uyghur Business Landmark in Xinjiang – Shia Waves

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The Chinese government demolished the Rebiya Kadeer Trade Center in Xinjiang, affecting Uyghur culture and commerce, prompting criticism from activists amid concerns over cultural erasure and human rights violations.


Demolition of a Cultural Landmark

The Chinese government recently demolished the Rebiya Kadeer Trade Center in Urumqi, Xinjiang, a vital hub for Uyghur culture and commerce, as reported by VOA. This center, once inhabited by more than 800 predominantly Uyghur-owned businesses, has been deserted since 2009. Authorities forcibly ordered local business owners to vacate the premises before proceeding with the demolition, which took place without any public notice.

Condemnation from Activists

Uyghur rights activists have condemned this demolition, perceiving it as part of China’s broader strategy to undermine Uyghur identity and heritage. The event has sparked heightened international concern regarding China’s policies in Xinjiang, which have been characterized by allegations of mass detentions and cultural suppression, prompting claims of crimes against humanity.

Rebiya Kadeer’s Response

Rebiya Kadeer, the center’s namesake and a notable Uyghur rights advocate, criticized the demolition as a deliberate attempt to erase her legacy. Kadeer, who has been living in exile in the U.S. since her release from imprisonment in 2005, continues to advocate for Uyghur rights. She has expressed that her family members have suffered persecution due to her activism, while the Chinese government has yet to comment on the legal ramifications of the demolition.

Source : China Demolishes Uyghur Business Landmark in Xinjiang – Shia Waves

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China

China Expands Nationwide Private Pension Scheme After Two-Year Pilot Program

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China’s private pension scheme, previously piloted in 36 cities, will roll out nationwide on December 15, 2024, enabling workers to open tax-deferred accounts. The initiative aims to enhance retirement savings, address aging population challenges, and stimulate financial sector growth.


After a two-year pilot program, China has officially expanded its private pension scheme nationwide. Starting December 15, 2024, workers covered by urban employee basic pension insurance or urban-rural resident basic pension insurance across the country can participate in this supplementary pension scheme. This nationwide rollout represents a significant milestone in China’s efforts to build a comprehensive pension system, addressing the challenges of a rapidly aging population.

On December 12, 2024, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, together with four other departments including the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, announced the nationwide implementation of China’s private pension scheme effective December 15, 2024. The initiative extends eligibility to all workers enrolled in urban employee basic pension insurance or urban-rural resident basic pension insurance.

A notable development is the expansion of tax incentives for private pensions, previously limited to pilot cities, to a national scale. Participants can now enjoy these benefits across China, with government agencies collaborating to ensure seamless implementation and to encourage broad participation through these enhanced incentives.

China first introduced its private pension scheme in November 2022 as a pilot program covering 36 cities and regions, including major hubs like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xi’an, and Chengdu. Under the program, individuals were allowed to open tax-deferred private pension accounts, contributing up to RMB 12,000 (approximately $1,654) annually to invest in a range of retirement products such as bank deposits, mutual funds, commercial pension insurance, and wealth management products.

Read more about China’s private pension pilot program launched two years ago: China Officially Launches New Private Pension Scheme – Who Can Take Part?

The nationwide implementation underscores the Chinese government’s commitment to addressing demographic challenges and promoting economic resilience. By providing tax advantages and expanding access, the scheme aims to incentivize long-term savings and foster greater participation in personal retirement planning.

The reform is expected to catalyze growth in China’s financial and insurance sectors while offering individuals a reliable mechanism to enhance their retirement security.


This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in ChinaHong KongVietnamSingapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support.

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