China
Geopolitical chess game: Why India has no interest in serving as a western pawn
Canada’s accusation against India over a citizen’s murder highlights the West’s empty rhetoric on democracy, as India maneuvers strategically, prioritizing its interests over Western expectations amid rising regional tensions with China.
Canada’s deepening divide with India following its accusation that the Indian government was responsible for the murder of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar has revealed a cynical truth: the West’s interest in democracy and rules-based international order is largely empty rhetoric.
Canada’s western allies have offered some support in its confrontation with India. However, this support is extremely limited. India is too important to American efforts to contain China.
India understands this and is taking full advantage of its position in this ongoing geopolitical chess game by getting what it can from the West while keeping a clear focus on its own interests.
India is a regional rival of China. It may have passed China as the world’s most populous country and is, by purchasing power parity, the world’s third largest economy.
The United States is trying to redirect global resources and supply chains from China to India. Supposedly, India is “safe” because it shares “democratic values” with the West.
Modi regime
However, India’s so-called liberal democracy has been severely damaged by the Hindu-supremacist policies of the Narendra Modi regime.
In modern India, religious minorities, especially Muslims, are regularly victims of mob violence, including lynching and sexual assault.
A rabid nationalist media pumps up government policies. Critical journalists are brutalized and silenced. The judiciary and parliament have been cowed.
Indian author Arundhati Roy argues that India is well on its way to becoming a fully fascist state. Roy was recently charged by the Modi regime for supposedly “provocative” statements she made in 2010.
A journalist pins a small Free the Press placard on the dress of writer and activist Arundhati Roy during a protest at the Press Club of India in New Delhi on Oct. 4, 2023. Police arrested her a few days later for comments she made in 2010.
(AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)
The western world knows all of this, but its actions towards India aren’t motivated by “shared values.” The West, led by the U.S., is driven only by the desire to contain China.
India has rejected Canada’s accusations, but has also flagged western hypocrisy. Indian MP Shashi Tharoor has alleged the U.S. and Israel are the “two foremost practitioners of extra-territorial assassinations in the past 25 years.” American drone warfare has killed thousands of people the U.S. accuses of terrorism and thousands of innocent bystanders in the Global South.
India may be following the West’s lead, but on a much smaller scale. Also, it allegedly acted in a western state, which seemingly expect to be exempt from the kind of violence they have unleashed on the Global South.
Read more:
India’s accusation of ‘terrorism’ is a ploy to hide its own human rights abuses
Not an American pawn
India is happy to accept western economic, military and technological support to help it close its enormous gaps in wealth, infrastructure and overall development with China. The West, meantime, needs India to maintain its global domination.
But India has no more interest in perpetuating western dominance of the global system than China does. It is not an American pawn.
India is pursuing its own interests, as its continuing relationship with Russia indicates.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pose for a photo prior to their talks at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Uzbekistan in September 2022.
(Alexandr Demyanchuk, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
India and China have a major border dispute and are militarily at odds. They view each other with mutual suspicion and, often, contempt.
But they understand that they will be neighbours forever and their relationship can be mutually beneficial if they can find diplomatic resolutions to their conflicts. This may be easier said than done, but the two countries have improved relations in the past and enjoy a growing economic relationship today.
Most Indians accept that making an active enemy of China is not in India’s best interests.
The more aggressive the U.S. becomes towards China, the more leverage it gives to India to use against both the Americans and the Chinese. India can extract benefits from the U.S.; simultaneously, American aggression provides China with incentives to improve its relations with India.
Choosing a side
But there is a point — perhaps fast approaching — at which regional states will feel forced to make a choice between China or the U.S. There’s a limit to how far both sides can be played off against the other.
Tensions between India and China benefit U.S. interests. If India and China resolve their differences and choose to work together — or, at least, not to work against each other — it would complicate those interests. As unlikely as this may seem now, harmonious relations between China and India are a real long-term possibility.
India is far from posing a threat to American power the way China is now. Nonetheless, if the U.S. succeeds in elevating India at China’s expense, it will eventually have to contend with challenges from India. It’s already clear that India doesn’t see itself as a western subordinate and has its own regional aspirations.
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House in June 2023.
(AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
India’s alleged murder of a Canadian citizen may be a taste of how India will handle its relations with the West as it rises in power. India will be demanding privileges the West extends to itself and its allies, for whom “rules-based international order” is a meaningless facade.
Canada has asked India to co-operate in its investigation of Nijjar’s murder. The investigation will probably go nowhere and be quietly buried. There are suspicions that India may be threatening other Sikh activists and may have committed another murder in the U.K.
India has recently eased some visa restrictions on Canadians even as it has expelled 41 Canadian diplomats, threatening to revoke their diplomatic immunity.
India will walk away untouched from its spat with Canada. It is too important to western strategies against China. But India has its own game to play and that does not necessarily accord with what the West wants.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Business
McKinsey Reduces Workforce by 500 in Overhaul of China Operations – WSJ
McKinsey plans to cut about 500 jobs in China, reducing its workforce by a third as part of a strategic revamp focused on minimizing security risks and decreasing government-linked clients.
McKinsey Job Cuts in China
McKinsey & Company, the renowned US consulting firm, is reportedly laying off approximately 500 employees as part of a significant restructuring in its Chinese operations. This decision reflects the company’s shift away from government-linked clientele, a strategy aimed at mitigating political and security risks in the region.
Workforce Reduction
The job cuts will result in a reduction of McKinsey’s workforce in China by roughly one-third. Over the past two years, the firm has been downsizing its personnel across Greater China, which includes Hong Kong and Taiwan, affecting hundreds of positions. As of June 2023, McKinsey employed nearly 1,500 individuals in Greater China.
Strategic Separation
To address rising security concerns, McKinsey is separating its China unit from its global operations. This move aims to enhance operational security while navigating the complexities of the Chinese market. McKinsey has not yet commented on these developments following a request for information.
Source : McKinsey Cuts 500 Jobs Amid Revamp of China Business – WSJ
China
India’s Setback in Bangladesh May Not Equate to China’s Advantage
The fall of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is detrimental to India, as her regime fostered strong ties. China may gain influence but faces significant challenges in capitalizing on this opportunity.
Strategic Loss for India
The recent fall of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina marks a significant strategic setback for India. Hasina was an unusually pro-Indian leader, and her departure has created fears that China may capitalize on this political upheaval. However, while China’s influence in Bangladesh might grow, such assumptions about its immediate gains are overstated.
Challenges to Chinese Expansion
Beijing’s opportunity to bolster its presence in Bangladesh is hindered by significant challenges. The ongoing crisis in Bangladesh could slow China’s attempts to extend its influence in the region. Despite the current turmoil favoring China, the practicalities of political dynamics in Bangladesh may make it difficult for Beijing to fully seize this chance.
Impact on India-Bangladesh Relations
Sheikh Hasina’s government served as a crucial ally for India, fostering a stable relationship that addressed longstanding concerns regarding cross-border issues and support for minority groups. The partnership facilitated vital infrastructure projects, including railway connections that enhance regional integration under Indian leadership. With Hasina’s government now collapsed, the hard-won gains in India-Bangladesh relations are at risk.
Source : India’s loss in Bangladesh not necessarily China’s gain
China
Why China is seeking greater presence in Africa – the strategy behind its financial deals
China plans to deepen its relationship with Africa, pledging $51 billion in loans and investments, aiming for increased diplomatic ties, economic growth, and expanded influence amidst Western concerns about debt-trap diplomacy.
China’s relationship with Africa is set to deepen. At a summit in Beijing in early September, China’s president, Xi Jinping, pledged to deliver US$51 billion (£39 billion) in loans, investment and aid to the continent over the next three years, as well as upgrading diplomatic ties.
Beijing’s close engagement with Africa is not new. Since 1950, the first overseas trip of the year for Chinese foreign ministers has almost always been to one or more African countries. But Xi’s commitments are still sure to raise concerns in the US and other western countries, which are competing with China for global influence.
They may well also bring back fears of China using “debt-trap diplomacy” to push African countries into default and thereby gain leverage over them. Such is the strength of this narrative that South Africa’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, felt compelled to deny it at the summit.
The notion of Chinese debt traps, particularly the infamous case of Sri Lanka’s port of Hambantota that, in 2017, was leased by the Sri Lankan government to a Chinese company to raise liquidity, has been debunked several times.
But with African populations and economies growing, and China’s engagement with them continuing to deepen, it is important to understand what China hopes to achieve with its diplomacy.
China’s engagement with Africa is strategic as well as economic. Whether it’s gaining votes at the UN, better access to resources, or increasing the international use of its currency, China’s diplomatic relations with Africa play into its ambitions of being a major player in a multipolar world.
Chinese children hold national flags as they prepare for the arrival of Togo’s president, Faure Gnassingbe, at Beijing International Airport ahead of the summit.
Ken Ishii / Pool / EPA
The long game
From a purely economic perspective, Africa is a potentially lucrative market for China. With its under-served market and booming population, the scope for expansion into Africa offers huge potential for Chinese firms.
This is particularly true now that the African Continental Free Trade Area (which was established in 2018) opens up the possibility of cross-border value chains developing in Africa.
Most of the goods that China imports from Africa are natural resources. Many of these resources have strategic relevance, for example, in manufacturing batteries. In return, Chinese companies export a wide range of goods to Africa, including manufactured products, industrial and agricultural machinery, and vehicles.
In terms of foreign direct investment, Chinese companies are still only the fifth-largest investors in Africa after their Dutch, French, US and UK counterparts. But their ascent has been relatively quick, and while western companies are focused on resources and the financial sector, Chinese ones also invest heavily in construction and manufacturing.
Chinese companies are major players in Africa’s construction sector, often working on projects funded by loans from Chinese banks to African governments. In 2019, for example, Chinese contractors accounted for about 60% of the total value of construction work in Africa.
Some of the infrastructure financed by China has done little to improve trade or economic development in Africa. And it has, admittedly, also contributed to the increased debt burden of several African countries.
The costly expressways that connect Nairobi in Kenya and Kampala in Uganda to the respective international airports, for instance, have made life easier for city elites and international travellers. But they have not led to economic growth.
So, China has moved to recalibrate its infrastructure finance in recent years. In 2021, Xi introduced the concept of “small and beautiful” projects better targeted at the partner country’s needs – a concept he repeated at the recent summit.
It is this alignment with the requests of African leaders that differentiates China’s engagement with Africa from that of the west. A key request of many African leaders is for investment in manufacturing value chains and imports of African processed goods rather than just raw resources.
Xi’s keynote speech addressed these two concerns. He promised more investment in key sectors and to allow more African goods to enter China without duties.
The construction of the Nairobi Expressway was supposed to decongest Kenya’s capital city, Nairobi.
Daniel Irungu / EPA
China’s support to African nations is political as well as economic. Its policy of non-interference in Africa’s internal affairs have been well received by African leaders – a sharp contrast to western nations who have often tied their support to the respect of certain social or economic conditions.
This has, in turn, bolstered China’s diplomatic influence on the continent. A good indicator of this influence is how many countries maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which the Chinese government sees as part of China’s territory. In Africa, only Eswatini has full relations with Taiwan and just a handful of other countries have representative offices.
Another Chinese goal is to expand the global reach of its currency, the renminbi. Its motive here is to challenge the dominance of the US dollar, which gives America control over transactions anywhere in the world.
Since the late 2000s, the People’s Bank of China has signed bilateral swap agreements with Morocco, Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa to conduct transactions in renminbi. And China is aiming to increase the use of renminbi in official lending, both through domestic banks such as the China Development Bank and regional institutions such as the New Development Bank.
Much like Africa’s western partners, China pursues both political and economic interests in its dealings with the continent. But, with western leaders paying little attention to Africa, China doesn’t need to pursue debt-trap diplomacy to increase its influence there. It just needs to put forward a better partnership offer to gain ground.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
- McKinsey Reduces Workforce by 500 in Overhaul of China Operations – WSJ
- India’s Setback in Bangladesh May Not Equate to China’s Advantage
- Why China is seeking greater presence in Africa – the strategy behind its financial deals
- Trends in China’s Outbound Investment: Key Sources, Destinations, and Sectors
- This Chinese EV Manufacturer is Ready to Compete with Elon Musk in China
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