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View from The Hill: China-Australia relations head back to room temperature, with Albanese’s November visit

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Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will visit China from November 4-7, engaging in discussions with Xi Jinping to mend relations and address trade issues, particularly wine export restrictions.

The defrost in China-Australia relations started cautiously after the change of federal government last year. It then sped up, with developments culminating in the formal announcement at the weekend of the date for the much-anticipated visit by Anthony Albanese.

The bilateral relationship is fast heading back to room temperature.

The PM will visit from November 4 to 7. He’ll have talks with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang, and he’ll also attend the China International Import Expo in Shanghai.

The last days of preparation have seen major steps. First came the release of Australian journalist Cheng Lei, detained in China for three years (but writer Yang Hengjun is still there). This was followed at the weekend by the expected breakthrough on China’s restrictions on Australian wine, which prompted Australia to commence action at the WTO in 2021.

China will review, over five months, its duties on the wine; Australia will suspend its WTO action. A statement from Albanese said that “if the duties are not removed at the end of the review, Australia will resume the dispute in the WTO. We are confident of a successful outcome.”

Breaking the impasse on wine is a big deal for producers. Before the duties, China was Australia’s largest wine export market.

The lack of access to China has been devastating for many in the industry, with exports to that country falling from $1.1 billion in 2019 to $16 million in 2022. Unlike some commodities that China hit, for which alternative markets were found, wine producers have had trouble selling elsewhere.

Overall, China is our largest trading partner, representing nearly a third of our total trade. At their height China’s trade restrictions on Australia amounted to some $20 billion. They are down to about $2 billion.

Albanese’s trip will come 50 years after then PM Gough’
Whitlam’s historic visit, which was the first by an Australian prime minister.

Whitlam told a banquet in Peking on October 31, 1973: “In China today we see a great modernising force, capable of exerting profound influence in the world. Close co-operation and association between our two peoples is both natural and beneficial.”

The Whitlam trip “laid the ground work for the diplomatic, economic and cultural ties that continue to benefit our countries today,” Albanese said on Sunday.

Over the decades the relationship has, for Australia, been enormously important economically, but at times very rocky. Albanese’s visit will be the first by an Australian prime minister since Malcolm Turnbull’s in 2016.

An already downward spiral in relations, driven by various issues, worsened dramatically when Australia led international pressure for an inquiry into the origins and early handling of COVID, which began in Wuhan.

The bilateral thaw has been considerably driven by China’s perception of its wider foreign policy interests, with last year’s change of government greatly facilitating the recalibration.

Read more:
Politics with Michelle Grattan: Asia expert Richard McGregor on Anthony Albanese’s coming visit to China

But Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong have remained cautious, against the background of China-United States tensions, the Taiwan issue, China’s courting of small Pacific countries, and the speed with things can change. They are keen to say the government will disagree with China where it must and always act in Australia’s national interest.

Meanwhile Mike Burgess, head of ASIO, has called fresh attention to China’s unrelenting spying activities, last week revealing an attempt to “infiltrate a prestigious Australian research institution”.

Among the topics for discussion during Albanese’s visit will be co-operation in economic areas, climate change and people-to-people links.

Albanese will be accompanied by Trade Minister Don Farrell, who has done much of the detailed trade negotiations to unlock the restrictions.

Speaking to journalists before leaving on Sunday for his visit to the United States, Albanese said, “It is important that we stabilise our relationship with China. That is in the interests of Australia and China, and it is indeed in the interests of the world, that we have stable relations, and that is what this visit will represent.”

Asked whether he would hope Xi would visit Australia, Albanese said, “we’ll have discussions about that”, noting Xi has been here a number of times.

Albanese said that in Washington this week he would be having discussions about progressing the legislation needed under the AUKUS agreement.

He’ll also be canvassing the potential benefits for Australia from the US Inflation Reduction Act. Among its objectives, this act seeks to drive clean energy. “As we move to a clean energy global economy, Australia is in a strong position to benefit because of the critical minerals that we have,” Albanese said.

The Prime Minister will be given a state dinner. This is the ninth time he has met President Biden, formally or informally, since becoming PM.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

China

Strengthening Economic Relations Between China and Singapore: Trade, Investment, and Future Opportunities

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Since 2013, Singapore has been China’s largest foreign investment source and trading partner. Both countries collaborate in the Belt and Road Initiative, with over 8,500 Chinese firms in Singapore. Their trade strengthened under the RCEP Agreement, growing by 4.4% in 2023.


Singapore has been China’s largest source of new foreign investment for 11 consecutive years since 2013. Likewise, China has remained Singapore’s largest trading partner, largest export market, and largest source of imports for 11 years in a row. Companies from both countries have jointly explored opportunities in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) markets, achieving positive outcomes in areas such as infrastructure, financial technology, legal services, and third-party market cooperation.

Currently, there are over 8,500 Chinese enterprises registered in Singapore, covering a wide range of industries, including trade, finance, shipping, infrastructure, logistics, and real estate. Singapore serves as a key hub on the Maritime Silk Road and plays an important role in the high-quality development of the BRI.

In this article, we explore the strengthening economic ties between China and Singapore, highlighting potential opportunities in bilateral trade and investment.

China and Singapore are both member countries in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement. This is a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between 15 countries and is the largest FTA in the world. Since the RCEP Agreement entered into force in 2022, China and Singapore’s year-on-year bilateral trade has increased by 4.4 percent by the fourth quarter of 2023.

Source: Ministry of Commerce, China

Singapore’s top exports to China are electrical equipment and nuclear machinery, two categories that have consistently been major imports over an extended period.


This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in ChinaHong KongVietnamSingapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support.

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Business

International Aquarium Conference Shifts from Mexico to China: A Global Focus

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Wuhan’s HHAn Polar Ocean Park successfully received the IAC flag, marking the 2027 event countdown. The city aims to promote aquatic research and biodiversity conservation through an upcoming science education museum.


Success of the Flag Handover Ceremony

The International Aquarium Congress (IAC) celebrated a significant milestone on November 1, 2024, in Guadalajara, Mexico, with the flag handover ceremony for the upcoming 13th IAC in 2027. This event, often dubbed the "Olympics of the Aquarium Industry," marks the return of the IAC to China for the first time since 2008. HHAn-Wuhan Polar Ocean Park received the flag, highlighting Wuhan’s prominence in aquatic research and conservation.

Wuhan: A Hub for Aquatic Research

Wuhan stands out as a leading center for aquatic organism research, housing the largest cluster of related institutions in China and globally. Its selection as the first inland city to host the IAC emphasizes its rich scientific heritage and commitment to environmental sustainability. The city’s advanced research capabilities and dedication to biodiversity make it an ideal venue for such a prestigious event.

Commitment to Environmental Education

Tan Wencheng, General Manager of HHAn-Wuhan Polar Ocean Park, expressed the park’s dedication to supporting Wuhan’s growth over the past 13 years. As a key urban tourism landmark, the park plans to construct a 2,000-square-meter science education museum focusing on Yangtze River aquatic organisms and ecological protection. This initiative aims to foster public understanding and appreciation for aquatic biodiversity and drive conservation efforts in the region.

Source : Global Spotlight on International Aquarium Conference as It Moves from Mexico to China

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Is Australia’s trade war with China now over? The answer might be out of our hands

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Australia’s rock lobster industry can export to China again, ending a significant trade barrier. However, future relations depend on geopolitical dynamics between China and the U.S., warranting cautious optimism.

Finally, Australia’s rock lobster industry will be able to export to China again, following a deal struck on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Laos last week.

It will take some weeks to finalise the paperwork, but Chinese diners can expect to eat our high-quality crustaceans as we devour our Christmas roast turkeys.

The breakthrough brings a particularly nasty chapter in Australia-China trade relations to a close. Tariffs on rock lobsters were the only remaining major restriction of a raft of trade barriers imposed by China in 2020.

It might be tempting to celebrate, but we should tread carefully. Our situation remains hostage to Beijing’s relationship with Washington. Whether Australia’s trade woes with China are actually over may ultimately be out of our hands.

Read more:
China removes block on Australian lobster, in last big bilateral trade breakthrough

Australia’s reversal of fortunes

The past couple of years have been a whirlwind.

The Albanese government has seen China systematically undo the export restrictions it had imposed on Australia in 2020 – including on barley, wine, beef, and now lobster – without giving away much of substance in return.

Yes, Australia suspended two cases it had brought against China at the World Trade Organization, concerning barley and wine duties China had imposed. But those cases can be resumed if the Chinese government backslides.

China will resume imports of Australian lobster by the end of this year.
Abdul Razak Latif/Shutterstock

And true, the Albanese government did not oppose China’s bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership – an important regional free trade agreement of which Australia is a founding member. But neither did it endorse China’s bid.

It seems we’ve come a long way since 2020, when China tabled its infamous “14 grievances” against Australia. This deliberately leaked document publicly criticised Australia on a whole range of fronts, including foreign investment decisions, alleged interference in China’s affairs, research funding and media coverage.

A more sobering picture elsewhere

This reopening of trade might make it seem like things are looking up for Australia. In some cases, our business community has bounced back with gusto, notably wine exports to China.

Zooming out, however, paints a more sobering picture of global trade relations. In the near term, the decisions of our key allies – namely the United States – may come to matter more than our own.

The Biden administration has long hoped to place a “floor” under America’s geopolitical competition with China. Neither side wants things to get ugly.

But in Washington, strong bipartisan consensus remains that China must be confronted. The US has continued to take coercive actions against Chinese exports and investment.

For example, the US recently imposed a 100% import duty on electric vehicles produced by Chinese-owned companies. Similarly, it imposed a 25% import duty on imports of Chinese container cranes. Strategic distrust will escalate no matter who wins the White House on November 5.

This animosity is mirrored in Beijing. China’s security state is expanding ever more into business, while its private sector retreats. China’s own coercive activities are also escalating in regional disputes over the South and East China seas, as well as in its trade retaliations against Western markets.

Distrust continues to simmer between China and the US.
Doug Mills/The New York Times via AP, Pool

Widening tensions

These tensions are also playing out in Europe and the Middle East. International relations scholars worry that the West must now confront an authoritarian axis comprising Russia, Iran, North Korea and China.

China’s “no limits” partnership with Russia has spooked most European elites. Western sanctions on Russia, meant to erode the Kremlin’s war machine, are likely being circumvented by China’s unmatched industrial capacities.

Iran’s military support for Russia supplements the Kremlin’s war-fighting capacities at Ukraine’s expense.

Unsurprisingly, economic security concerns are rapidly eclipsing free trade considerations for the US.

Advanced manufacturing capabilities – such as semiconductor production – are increasingly important strategic assets.
genkur/Shutterstock

When US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan introduced the 2022 National Security Strategy, he adopted a selectively restrictive approach he called “small yard, high fence”.

He was talking about export controls and inward restrictions on investment, applied to high-technology products.

Since then, the “yard” has grown wider, and the “fence” has expanded. More sectors and products are being thrown into the mix, from energy security, through critical minerals, to food production.

The challenge with digital technologies, able to be used for both military and civilian purposes, is that the yard can be very large indeed.

Middle power problems

The US has the economic and military weight to confront China. As the European Union is learning, having the economic weight is necessary. But being politically united is essential, and they remain far from that.

Australia is a middle power, without the necessary economic weight or military heft to confront China. That means we must support the rules-based multilateral trading system – preserving the authority of institutions like the World Trade Organisation (WTO) – to constrain the actions of the great powers and preserve as much of our open trade posture as possible.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese attended the ASEAN Summit in Laos last week.
Rungroj Yongrit/EPA

Washington, however, increasingly expects its allies to fall into line. How else can one explain Canada’s decision to follow the US and impose 100% import duties on electric vehicles produced by Chinese owned companies?

Like Australia, Canada is also a middle power. It is also a strong supporter of the rules-based multilateral trading system. But Canada’s action violates WTO rules.

The fact that Washington’s actions also violate these rules is taken for granted these days.

Australia must pay attention

Global trade cooperation is deteriorating, and the world is fracturing into two “values-based” trading blocs. While there could be positive upswings in our bilateral trade relations with China, the medium term trend is down.

As Napoleon Bonaparte is reputed to have said:

China is a sleeping giant; let him sleep, for if he wakes he will shake the world.

China has changed, and the world with it.

Australian business needs to pay attention. Our East Asian partners, notably Japan and South Korea, have long spoken of the need for a “China plus one” (or more) business strategy – making sure trade and investment is diversified into other countries, as well.

Such diversification will be increasingly important in the years to come.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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