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Understanding risks for Australia of China’s slowing economy is Chalmers’ top priority at upcoming Beijing talks

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Treasurer Jim Chalmers will visit Beijing for the Australia-China Strategic Economic Dialogue, addressing economic ties, trade issues, and concerns regarding China’s investments in Australia amidst complex bilateral relations.

When Treasurer Jim Chalmers travels to Beijing later this month, he and his counterpart at China’s peak economic agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, won’t be short on important topics to discuss.

Chalmers will be attending the Australia-China Strategic Economic Dialogue, one part of a tripartite agreement secured by the Gillard government in 2013.

The purpose was to hold annual talks at the highest level. The agreement also includes a Leaders’ Dialogue and a Foreign and Strategic Dialogue involving the two countries’ foreign ministers.

Troubled times

The dialogue was last held in September 2017 as the state of official ties began turning south.

It was then formally suspended by Beijing in May 2021 after the Morrison government cancelled the Victorian state government’s Memorandum of Understanding to participate in China’s “belt and road initiative”.

Its resurrection has been slow in coming. The stabilisation in the bilateral relationship under the Albanese government has already seen reciprocal visits involving leaders and foreign ministers. But it was not until June the two sides signed a new memorandum to bring back the dialogue.

The fact Chalmers was able to confirm the trip last Sunday is another sign Canberra and Beijing remain committed to talking. This is despite there being numerous issues over which they are at odds.

Chalmers’ concerns

For the Treasurer, the priority will be getting a first-hand read on China’s struggling economy and the risks this presents to Australia’s own outlook.

When announcing the visit he alluded to one scenario his department was tracking that could see Commonwealth budget revenue take a $4.5 billion hit due to falling prices for key commodity exports, including iron ore and lithium.

Slowing Chinese growth and falling commodity prices are clearly not positives for Australian income, but Chalmers is unlikely to return in a state of panic.

The latest trade figures show China continuing to import Australian iron ore and lithium at record or near record volumes.

Despite slowing growth China is still importing large volumes of Australia’s iron ore.
Dean Lewins/AAP

This points to increasing supply and a lack of demand from other countries being at least as relevant in explaining recent price falls. And both are coming off extraordinary price spikes to now be approaching levels more in line with historical averages.

The impact of Chinese growth on its demand for Australian goods and services has also never been a simple, one-to-one relationship. That remains true today.

A complex relationship

Australian wine exports, for example, are booming after Beijing removed tariffs earlier this year.

China’s customs agencies put the value of imported Australian wine over the past three months at US$252 million, or around A$400 million. This topped the $A357 million sold over the past year to the US, Australia’s second largest customer.

Students from China are also commencing at Australian universities in record numbers, albeit this is likely to fall next year due to restrictions imposed by Canberra, not Beijing.

That China remains a stand-out market is reflected in the large numbers of businesses and politicians attending the Australia-China Business Council’s Canberra Networking Day on Thursday. Trade Minister Don Farrell, Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Shadow Trade Minister Kevin Hogan and Shadow Foreign Minister Simon Birmingham are all slated to give speeches.

Chalmers will also be keen to raise the lingering import ban Beijing imposed in 2020 affecting Australian lobsters. Trade Minister Don Farrell said in June he was “very confident that in the near future” the ban would be lifted. Chalmers’ visit might provide the occasion to announce a final resolution.

China’s concerns

For China, top of the list of concerns will be Australia’s treatment of Chinese investors, particularly in sectors like critical minerals. In the past they have been welcomed but since 2020 there’s been an apparent de-facto ban on further involvement.

A recent survey of Chinese businesses in Australia pointed to generally positive sentiment. Almost 80% said they were optimistic about the outlook of the local business environment. Still, while 72.5% did not consider they had experienced discriminatory treatment, 42.4% felt the enforcement of Australia’s laws and regulations lacked transparency.

It’s not hard to see why. When Chalmers was asked in an interview last Sunday whether or not he wanted “China’s investment in critical minerals processing in Australia”, he did not reply with a “no”. Nor did he provide even a qualified “yes”.

China will likely also be seeking reassurance Canberra will not join Washington and some other capitals usually regarded as geopolitically “like-minded” in putting up tariff barriers on Chinese imports.

This reassurance shouldn’t be difficult for Chalmers to provide. Unlike the US, Australia’s economic relationship with China remains overwhelmingly complementary. Last year, Australia’s exports to China exceeded imports by $110.7 billion.

And low-cost, high-quality imports from China, such as electric vehicles, would be welcomed by the government amid a cost-of-living crisis and the net zero transition.

Late last month, Chris Bowen, Australia’s Minister for Climate and Energy, hosted his Chinese counterpart for the 8th Australia-China Ministerial Dialogue on Climate Change in Sydney.

A bipartisan approach

Trade with China also enjoys bipartisan support. In March, Minister Farrell touted the potential for two-way trade to increase from $300 billion to $400 billion.

Not to be outdone, opposition leader Peter Dutton said in June he’d “love to see the trading relationship [with China] increase two-fold”.

Chalmers was on the money this week in stating Australia’s relationship with China is now “full of complexity and full of opportunity”. His upcoming trip can only help in managing the former and realising the latter.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Business

HSBC Chairman to Head Key UK Business Delegation to China

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HSBC Chairman Mark Tucker will lead a UK business delegation to China next month to boost trade and investment, amid concerns over national security and improving UK-China relations.


HSBC Chairman Leads UK Delegation to China

HSBC Chairman Mark Tucker will lead a pivotal British business delegation to China next month, marking the first significant visit since 2018. The trip aims to enhance Chinese investment in the UK, guided by Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Tucker, a seasoned financier with extensive Asia experience, is regarded as essential in resetting UK-China relations.

Reviving Economic Dialogue

Tucker will accompany senior bankers in seeking to rejuvenate trade, specifically focusing on financial services. Although there are apprehensions among some UK lawmakers regarding national security threats posed by closer ties to Beijing, the UK Treasury spokesperson confirmed Chancellor Reeves’ upcoming discussions on economic cooperation in Beijing.

A Shift in UK-China Relations

Since suspending most dialogues following China’s imposition of a national security law in Hong Kong, UK-China relations have soured. Nevertheless, the Labour government is prioritizing improved ties with China, emphasizing investment opportunities. Reeves asserts the necessity of a pragmatic approach to benefitting national interests amid ongoing concerns voiced by some lawmakers about security risks.

Source : HSBC Chairman to lead pivotal UK business delegation to China

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China

China’s November 2024 Economy: Navigating Mixed Signals and Ongoing Challenges

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In November 2024, China’s economy exhibited mixed results: industrial production rose by 5.4%, while retail sales grew only 3%, below forecasts. Fixed asset investment also faltered. Policymakers are anticipated to introduce measures to stimulate domestic demand and combat deflation.


China’s economy showed mixed performance in November 2024, with industrial production and exports showing resilience, while retail sales and fixed asset investment underperformed, amid ongoing challenges in the property sector. Policymakers are expected to implement targeted fiscal and monetary measures to boost domestic demand and address deflationary pressures.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released China’s economy data for November 2024, revealing a mixed performance across key indicators. Retail sales grew by 3 percent year-on-year, a significant slowdown from October’s 4.8 percent growth and well below the 4.6 percent forecast. Industrial production, however, showed resilience, rising by 5.4 percent and exceeding expectations of 5.3 percent growth.

The property sector continued to drag on the broader economy, with real estate investment contracting by 10.4 percent for the January-to-November period, further highlighting the challenges in stabilizing the sector. Fixed asset investment also fell short of expectations, growing by 3.3 percent year-to-date, down from 3.4 percent in October.

In November, China’s industrial value added (IVA) grew by 5.4 percent year-on-year (YoY), slightly accelerating from the 5.3 percent recorded in October. This modest improvement reflects continued recovery in key industries, supported by recent stimulus measures aimed at stabilizing the economy.

The manufacturing sector led the growth, expanding by 6.0 percent YoY, while the power, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector grew by 1.6 percent. The mining industry posted a 4.2 percent YoY increase. Notably, advanced industries outpaced overall growth, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing rising by 7.6 percent and 7.8 percent YoY, respectively, underscoring the resilience of China’s innovation-driven sectors.

Key product categories showed robust output gains in November:

From January to November, IVA increased by 5.8 percent YoY, maintaining steady growth over the year despite headwinds from a slowing property market and external uncertainties.


This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in ChinaHong KongVietnamSingapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support.

Read the rest of the original article.

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China

Ukraine war: 10% of Chinese people are willing to boycott Russian goods over invasion – new study

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Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, some Chinese citizens express dissent through potential boycotts of Russian goods, reflecting a complex relationship despite government support for Russia.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the Chinese government has been criticised for its refusal to condemn the war. In 2024, the economic and diplomatic relationship between the two nations appears stronger than ever.

Because of strict censorship and repression imposed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), it is difficult to know the extent to which the general public shares their government’s support of Putin’s regime. But a newly published study I carried out with colleagues found that more than 10% of Chinese people surveyed were willing to boycott Russian goods over the war in Ukraine.

This is a surprisingly large figure, especially since existing surveys indicate that Chinese people hold a broadly positive view of their neighbour. We used a representative sample of 3,029 Chinese citizens for this research, to dig into public attitudes to Russia. The survey was done in 2022 after the Ukraine invasion.

We were aware that due to widespread censorship, our participants might not be willing to give honest answers to questions about Russia’s actions in Ukraine. They might also not feel safe to do that in a regime where disagreement with the CCP’s position is often met with harsh punishment. This is why we asked them to tell us if they would be willing to boycott Russian products currently sold in China.

We felt this question was a good indicator of how much the participants disapproved of Russian foreign policy in Ukraine. More importantly, we were also curious to find out whether Chinese citizens would be willing to take direct political action to punish Russia economically for its aggressive behaviour.

In our study, we split respondents into the three different ideological groups in China: “liberals”, who support the free market and oppose authoritarianism; “the new left”, who sympathise with the policies pursued in China under Mao Zedong; and “neo-authoritarians”, who believe the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is an extension of the rivalry between authoritarian China and the liberal United States. These groups were based on the main political beliefs in China.

We found that liberals were most likely to say they were willing to boycott Russian products. Liberals believe that China should work with, rather than against, western democracies. They also place a high value on human rights and democratic freedoms. Because of their beliefs, they are likely to think that Russia’s actions against Ukraine were unprovoked, aggressive and disproportional.

Chinese and Russian economic and diplomatic relations seem closer than ever in 2024.
American Photo Archive/Alamy

The new left and neo-authoritarians we surveyed were more supportive of Russian products. The new left see Russia as a close ally and believe that Nato’s expansion in eastern Europe was a form of aggression. Neo-authoritarians, on the other hand, believe that supporting Russia, an allied autocracy, is in China’s best interest.

Boycotting Russian goods

Asking Chinese participants if they are willing to boycott Russian products might seem like a simple matter of consumer preferences. However, our study reveals a great deal about the way in which regular citizens can express controversial political beliefs in a repressive authoritarian regime.

Boycotting products of certain companies has long been studied in the west as a form of unconventional political action that helps people express their beliefs. However, in the west, boycotting certain products is simply one of many ways people are able to take political action. In a country such as China, boycotting a Russian product might often be the only safe way to express disagreement with the country’s actions.

This is because citizens do not have to tell others they chose not to buy a product, and their actions are unlikely to attract the attention of the authorities.

Since Russian goods are readily available to Chinese consumers and China is encouraging more Russian exports to reach its market, the Russian economy could be significantly affected by an organised boycott campaign in China. The considerable level of support for a boycott expressed by some of our participants, as well as previous acts of solidarity with Ukraine in China, suggest that such a campaign could already be taking place in the country.

This could harm Russia because it regularly exports a number of different products such as meat, chocolate, tea and wine to China. These goods made up 5.1% of China’s total imports in 2023 – and this figure is likely to increase if Russia becomes more isolated from the west, and therefore more dependent on China for its trade.

While 5.1% of the Chinese market might seem like a low figure, China is home to over 1.4 billion people. In this context, even a small boycott could result in a serious loss to Russian companies.

Our research shows that Chinese citizens don’t always support the official position of the communist party. It also shows that many people there will express even the most unpopular political opinions – if they can find a safe way to do it.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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