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China

What does China want from the next US president?

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Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te asserts sovereignty amid Chinese military threats following his National Day speech. Beijing desires reunification, while U.S. relations with Taiwan remain complex and pivotal.

During a Taiwan National Day speech on October 10, Taiwanese president Lai Ching-te said that Taipei was determined to defend Taiwan’s sovereignty against “annexation and encroachment”, and emphasised that “China has no right to represent Taiwan”.

China’s response was swift. Less than a week after Lai’s provocative speech, a record 153 Chinese war planes swarmed and surrounded Taiwan during a Chinese military exercise over 24 hours. Beijing’s intention was simple: issue Taipei a “stern warning” for what China considers a “separatist act”.

Beijing sees the island as a “sacred and inseparable part of China’s territory” that must return to the fold. The Taiwanese president sees things differently. Currently, the self-governing island has a different political system, and few Taiwanese are in favour of reunification with China.

Though Washington doesn’t have diplomatic relations with Taipei officially, it does have regular communication through back channels and a strong economic relationship. The island is a key US trading partner and is a major supplier of semiconductors which are critical to the production of computers and other technologies. It also sells arms to Taiwan, although this has reduced significantly under Joe Biden.

China has not ruled out taking Taiwan by force, and if it does, the US might come to the self-ruling island’s defence as indicated by Washington in the past.

China holds extensive military exercises around the island of Taiwan in October 2024.

But Xi will be hoping the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election might bring a leader that would have a different attitude to Taiwan as well as helping China resolve its economic storm, which has resulted in a rising number of protests. So, between an outspoken Donald Trump and a seemingly even-tempered Kamala Harris, does Beijing have a favourite? And do either of them offer Xi anything new?

Taiwan and Xi’s legitimacy

Aside from Mao Zedong, the founder of the People’s Republic of China, Xi is the only sitting Chinese head of state without term limits and whose political ideology is enshrined in the Chinese constitution.

Xi could potentially prove his place in history by resolving China’s economic crisis. However, Beijing’s increasing isolation from the west due to its support of Russia’s Ukraine conquest makes this doubly hard.

Read more:
Biden on Taiwan: Did he really commit US forces to stopping any invasion by China? An expert explains why, on balance, probably not

Like it or not, Xi might have to ramp up whatever agenda Beijing has for Taiwan. If he could make sufficient progress towards unification, he may be hailed as one of the greats of the Chinese Communist Party, which would consolidate his status within the party, and distract from the nation’s economic woes.

Unlike Harris, who appears to take take alliances and partnerships seriously, Trump questions the benefits of many alliances forged by the US. In fact, the few times that he spoke about Taiwan centres on how the island state has taken America’s semiconductor business, and should pay more to the US for its defence.

So, would Trump come to Taiwan’s aid if China does invade Taiwan? Given the importance of semiconductors to electronics and AI, he just might. But Trump also has a reputation as a “dealmaker-in-chief”, so he might just cut a deal with Beijing, which erodes Taiwan’s independence. And that is likely to worry Taipei.

The Russia dilemma

As Russia’s “partner of no limits”, China has been supplying Russia with technology that fuels Russia’s war machinery against Ukraine. But this has strained Sino-western relations and earned Beijing trade and import restrictions, which hampers China’s economic recovery.

China could halt its aid to Russia to avoid western scrutiny, but that is not likely. Beijing needs a strong Russia to be a viable ally in its battle against a US-led world order, and to avoid being the focus of the west if Russia falters amid its conquest in Ukraine.

While Harris backs Kyiv and sees the war as a strategic and moral issue, Trump has criticised US aid to Ukraine. He also believes that Kyiv should provide concessions to Russia to end the war that Putin started in February 2022.

A future Trump administration might strengthen Russia by withdrawing support for Ukraine and lifting sanctions against Russia. And a more robust Russia is good news for Beijing.

US economic hostility

So, at first glance, Trump and Harris’s approaches towards China are different. Trump’s return to the White House could also intensify the trade war that he started in 2018, as tariffs on Chinese goods could go to as high as 60%. This might hasten the economic decoupling between the US and China.

Harris, on the other hand, wishes to “de-risk” China. This approach seeks to maintain US global interest while engaging with the east Asian economic behemoth. In such a scenario, Beijing might prefer a Harris presidency as it leaves room for negotiation.

However, Harris has relatively little foreign policy experience, and is expected to pick up where Joe Biden left off. This means the tariffs and technological restrictions that China faced under a Biden administration could stay under her presidency.

Another factor is Tesla founder Elon Musk, who is an ardent supporter of Trump, and may take a top job within a Trump administration.

How much influence the tech multi-billionaire actually has over Trump is uncertain. However, it’s worth noting that Musk has substantial business dealings in China, and might seek to lean on Trump if the former president’s policies harms Tesla’s interests.

With many of these factors unclear at the moment, Beijing will be hoping for a US leader who is more interested in economic wins than protecting Taiwan, and one that Xi can negotiate with to warm up relations between the two countries.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Business

China Reports Agreement on Ceasefire between Myanmar’s Factions

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Myanmar’s conflicting parties have reached a ceasefire agreement, facilitated by China, aiming to reduce violence and promote peace in the region.


Myanmar Ceasefire Agreement

In a significant development, conflicting parties in Myanmar have reached an agreement for a ceasefire, with China facilitating discussions. This breakthrough is crucial for restoring peace in a nation that has been marred by violence and political strife in recent years. The ceasefire aims to pave the way for reconciliation efforts and improve the humanitarian situation in affected areas.

Role of China

China’s involvement as a mediator highlights its growing influence in resolving regional conflicts. The Chinese government has been working closely with both sides to promote dialogue and trust, crucial elements for a long-term peace solution. Increased stability in Myanmar can benefit regional security and economic development, making China’s mediation significant.

Looking Forward

The hope is that this ceasefire will lead to further negotiations addressing underlying issues in Myanmar. While challenges remain, both parties have expressed willingness to work towards a peaceful resolution. The international community will be watching closely to see if this ceasefire can be sustained and lead to enduring peace for the people of Myanmar.

Source : Myanmar’s two sides agree to ceasefire: China

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China

2024 China Economic Review: GDP, Trade, and Foreign Direct Investment Analysis

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In 2024, China’s economy grew 5%, supported by stimulus measures, strong exports, and high-tech investments, despite weak domestic demand and demographic challenges. Key sectors like manufacturing and digital economy thrived, necessitating structural reforms for sustained growth into 2025.


China’s economy grew 5% in 2024, driven by stimulus measures, strong exports, and high-tech investment, despite challenges like weak domestic demand and demographic pressures. Structural reforms and targeted policies are essential for sustaining growth into 2025.

China’s economic performance in 2024 saw a return to steady growth, achieving a 5 percent GDP expansion in line with the government’s target, as per the official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on January 17, 2025. This outcome was largely bolstered by stimulus measures that helped drive a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter recovery. While the country’s economy faced challenges such as declining population numbers and sluggish consumer demand, there were signs of optimism across key sectors, including industrial output and digital economy growth.  

Additionally, China is beginning to pivot away from its dependence on the property sector, with the digital economy playing an increasingly significant role in economic expansion.  

This article explores the major economic highlights from 2024 and examines the key trends, challenges, and opportunities that will shape China’s economy in the year ahead. 

In 2024, China’s GDP reached RMB 134.91 trillion (US$18.80 trillion), maintaining its position as the second-largest economy in the world, behind only the United States, whose projected GDP for 2024 stands at approximately US$29 trillion. This reflects a year-on-year growth of 5.0 percent, in line with the government’s official target of “around 5 percent“ set during the 2024 Two Sessions. While slower than the 5.2 percent growth achieved in 2023, it highlights a stable recovery largely driven by strong export performance and targeted stimulus measures throughout the year. 

The economy saw accelerated growth in the final quarter of 2024, with GDP expanding by 5.4 percent, surpassing expectations and making a substantial contribution to the overall 5.0 percent increase. Indeed, quarterly growth performance in 2024 showed steady improvement: the first quarter recorded a 5.3 percent increase, followed by 4.7 percent in Q2, and 4.6 percent in Q3.  

Sectoral performance highlights revealed the manufacturing and service sectors as key drivers.  


This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in ChinaHong KongVietnamSingapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support.

Read the rest of the original article.

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China

How China’s appetite for salmon could reshape global seafood markets – new research

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China’s salmon demand surged 46% in 2023, prompting global exporters to respond. Challenges in domestic salmon production highlight opportunities for rainbow trout, reshaping the seafood market towards sustainability and consumer preferences.

China’s demand for farmed salmon is growing at an unprecedented pace. In 2023, its imports grew by 46% year on year – with imports of fresh and chilled Atlantic salmon up 63%.

This remarkable growth is reshaping the global seafood trade. Exporters from Scotland, Norway, Chile, Australia, Faroe Islands, Canada and Iceland are racing to supply the needs of this vast and rapidly evolving market.

At the same time, China’s efforts to produce its own Atlantic salmon have faced significant challenges, highlighting the need for substitutes like rainbow trout to meet the country’s growing appetite for seafood delicacies.

An important shift occurred in 2018, when the Chinese government permitted rainbow trout to be labelled and sold as salmon. This decision blurred the distinction between imported Atlantic salmon and locally farmed rainbow trout, creating a more accessible option for cost-sensitive consumers.

Trout is comparable to salmon in appearance and size, with firm and oily meat that has a similar orange-pink colour. Nutritionally too, the species are alike, as are the ways in which they can be cooked and prepared.

In our new research which included taste tests, we found that many Chinese consumers could not distinguish between domestic rainbow trout and imported Atlantic salmon in blind testing. But when informed about the origin, testers’ preferences shifted strongly in favour of imported Atlantic salmon, highlighting the power of provenance in consumer tastes.

Although people’s willingness to pay did not vary initially in our blind tests, it became a decisive factor once the origin of the fish was revealed.

But we found that origin alone was not enough. For our testers to be prepared to pay higher prices, they also had to like the look, smell and taste of the product more, or be persuaded by its ecolabel (indicating environmental standards).

Environmental costs

Transporting Atlantic salmon from Scottish lochs, Norwegian fjords or Chilean waters to Chinese markets involves complex logistics and significant environmental costs. The carbon footprint of this trade, combined with the resource-intensive nature of salmon aquaculture, raises critical concerns about sustainability.

These challenges are particularly pronounced in China, where consumers have a strong preference for freshness. This drives demand for quick delivery of imported salmon despite its environmental impact, and consumers are increasingly turning to online platforms to buy their seafood.

E-commerce has reshaped seafood retail in China, offering quick delivery and products that cater to consumer demand for quality and freshness. Salmon stands out in this market due to its perceived high value, premium quality and price point. Unlike other expensive seafood that often needs to be sold live to maintain its value, salmon retains its appeal when chilled or frozen.

This makes salmon particularly suited to modern retail models, where sophisticated cold-chain logistics ensure its freshness without the complexities of live transport. However, these innovations come at a cost.

The energy-intensive storage and rapid transportation required for imported salmon contribute significantly to environmental harm. As China’s seafood market continues to grow, addressing the sustainability challenges associated with this trade will be critical to balancing consumer demand with environmental responsibility. Current international certification schemes aiming to improve the sector’s sustainability have had limited impact in China so far.

A worker processing imported fresh salmon in a Beijing wholesale seafood market.
David Little, Author provided

China has made significant efforts to establish a domestic Atlantic salmon industry, but these attempts have largely been unsuccessful due to technical challenges and environmental constraints. This has left a gap that domestically farmed rainbow trout is poised to fill.

A trout farming raceway in Chengdu, China, supplied with fresh river water.
Zixuan Ma, Author provided

In 2022, China produced 37,000 tonnes of rainbow trout. This is a relatively small amount compared with international production levels, but still notable considering that rainbow trout is a new farmed species in China, unlike traditional species like carp.

However, rainbow trout farming in China is geographically constrained, as the species thrives in cooler freshwater temperatures found in higher-lying lakes and reservoirs, as well as in “raceways” (channels supplied continuously with fresh water diverted from rivers).

Advances in aquaculture systems offer a potential pathway to expand China’s production. Trout farming is a more sustainable, locally sourced alternative to Atlantic salmon that reduces the carbon footprint associated with imports and ensures fresher options for Chinese consumers. Developing a robust domestic trout industry could enhance food security, reduce dependence on imports, and create economic opportunities in rural areas.

China’s evolving seafood market offers valuable lessons for the global industry. Emphasising quality, freshness and sustainability will resonate with the increasingly sophisticated Chinese consumer.

At the same time, investment in eco-friendly aquaculture practices, both domestically and internationally, will be essential to balance the growing demand for premium seafood with environmental responsibility. These could include reducing feed waste and recirculating aquaculture systems (which filter and reuse water) to minimise water use. Recycling waste nutrients by using them elsewhere in food production could also be key.

As rainbow trout gains prominence in China’s seafood landscape, the relationship between consumer preferences, environmental concerns and economic opportunities could in turn shape the future of the global salmon trade.

If domestic fish captures a larger share of the Chinese market, salmon producers in Europe, Canada and other exporting regions may face significant challenges. This could ultimately force them to rethink their strategies in order to adapt to shifting market dynamics.

Although the goal of creating a domestic Atlantic salmon industry has proved difficult for China, trout farming presents a practical and sustainable solution for its luxury seafood sector.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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