Anyone fancying a trade war with China might have missed their best opportunity, according to trade officials and economic advisers, who said the Chinese economy has already passed the stage of being vulnerable to such actions.

They said trade is no longer a main factor contributing to the nation’s GDP growth, and the country has made preparations in the past few years for taking on the challenge of a possible rise in protectionism.

They also said that trade was not among the key tasks assigned by the just-completed Central Economic Work Conference, a yearly top-level decision-making meeting to map out the development strategy for the coming year.

In the conference’s communique, only the quality of import and export goods was briefly mentioned.

More than ever, China is relying on its own reform and stability for building its economic strength, they said.

Nonetheless, Li Guanghui, vice-president of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation affiliated with the Ministry of Commerce, said that this year, “protectionism will continue to rise and trade frictions will become more violent”.

One of the worst trade frictions, he said, could occur between China and the United States, since president-elect Donald Trump has said he will impose punitive tariffs on imports from China.

Zhang Yansheng, chief economist of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, a think tank close to the government, said that the expected rise in the US inflation level this year would weaken US exports and stimulate imports, resulting in a growing trade deficit and an eagerness by Washington to make China a scapegoat.

Should that happen, “China must handle it well”, Zhang said, adding that China has no shortage of available countermeasures.

China’s confidence in facing protectionism by the US lies in the reform it recently has made. Its growth is no longer export-driven but led primarily by domestic consumption, which…

Read the complete story here