Economics
Trumping financial risks in Asia
Twenty years after the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 and the global financial crisis of 2007–08, storm clouds are gathering once again
In July 2018, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) asked whether the world was heading towards a perfect financial storm.
With the US stock market heading for record highs even as emerging markets like Argentina and Turkey were running into foreign exchange problems.
Twenty years after the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 and the global financial crisis of 2007–08, storm clouds are gathering once again.
Conventional economic models failed to predict the last two crises because the technical definition of financial risk is measured volatility.
The global financial crises proved that current models of financial risk, largely used by banks and financial regulators, are totally blind to Black Swan or Grey Rhino events of unmeasurable uncertainty.
This time round, the consensus is that the Grey Rhino (an event with high probability and high impact, but where the trigger is uncertain) is the looming rise in US interest rates in response to a domestic economy that is running at nearly full capacity, with low unemployment levels and signs of creeping inflation.
As the BIS has warned, non-financial borrowers outside the United States owe US$11.5 trillion dollars, of which US$3.7 trillion is owed by emerging markets.
Global financial fragility comes from two structural imbalances
First, the United States is the leading deficit country in terms of trade and debt, owing the world a net US$7.7 trillion, or 39.8 per cent of GDP.
This amount is growing because of rising fiscal debt and the low level of national savings.
Second, below-par global growth since 2008 has been underwritten almost completely by central bank unconventional monetary policies, which have brought interest rates to an unsustainably low level.
Market fears that the large central banks will withdraw quantitative easing — QExit — threaten to jeopardise the current frail recovery, which is why US President Donald Trump is also against the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.
If geopolitical risks trump financial risks, what could go wrong in the coming months?
Western analysts think that the trigger will be a Chinese debt meltdown. But Chinese debt is internal debt, as China has foreign exchange reserves equivalent to 188 per cent of its foreign debt and still runs a current account surplus.
China’s debt problem is an internal debt issue, very much like that of Japan. While Japanese debt is owed largely to Japanese households, Chinese debt is largely owed by state-owned enterprises and local governments to state-owned banks. In such a situation, China is well positioned to rewrite its national balance sheet, a privilege not possible for more privately dominated markets.
Financial risks are rising not just in China, but globally
Dun and Bradstreet’s Global Risk Matrix, published in May 2018, suggested that US interest rate rises could trigger a fresh debt crisis, sending the global economy into contraction.
Echoing this sentiment, the International Monetary Fund’s July 2018 World Economic Outlook argued that rising trade tensions are threatening growth recovery in Europe, Japan and Britain more than predicted.
Any overheating in the United States would trigger currency crises for some emerging markets.
In short, we cannot separate financial risks from geopolitical risks. Any unforeseen event arising from a geopolitical miscalculation, climate change disaster, war or cyber-induced disruption could trigger another round of financial crises.
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Business
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Asian markets showed mixed trends amid China’s stimulus measures and disappointing inflation data. Meanwhile, Indian equities remained stable, with mutual fund inflows rising. Bitcoin surged following Trump’s presidential win.
Business Hook Daily News Podcast
Good evening! Welcome to Business Hook’s daily news podcast. I’m Avni Raja, and today is November 11, 2024. Let’s dive into the day’s top business stories.
Market Reactions and Economic Data
Asian markets experienced a mixed session as investors digested new economic data and stimulus measures from China. The Chinese government announced a $1.4 trillion package targeting local government debt, although analysts deemed it underwhelming. October’s inflation rate of 0.3% fell short of estimates and declined for the second month in a row. As a result, the CSI 300 saw a slight gain, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped over 1.5%. In India, the Sensex closed below 74,500, and the Nifty ended above 24,100, with a majority of Nifty stocks declining.
Mutual Fund Inflows and Upcoming IPOs
There’s encouraging news in the mutual fund sector, with October seeing net inflows of 2.4 lakh crore rupees, reversing the previous month’s outflows. Record equity inflows have risen to nearly 42,000 crore rupees, reflecting robust domestic investor confidence. In the IPO space, LG Electronics prepares to raise $1.5 billion by listing its Indian arm, with banks like Axis Capital involved in the process, potentially leading to an IPO as early as 2025.
Cryptocurrency Surge
In cryptocurrency news, Bitcoin has achieved new highs, surpassing $82,000. This surge is attributed to Donald Trump’s recent presidential victory, which has favored cryptocurrencies compared to more cautious Democratic approaches. Experts speculate that Bitcoin could surpass $90,000 soon. That’s all for today’s wrap-up. Join us again tomorrow, and check out the Business Hook YouTube channel for more updates.
Source : News Wrap | China Stimulus Disappoints; Sensex & Nifty Slip; Bitcoin Soars Past $82,000
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Henry Keswick, 86, a key figure in Jardine Matheson, passed away as the U.S. awaited election results, amid heightened tensions in U.S.-China relations during Trump’s presidency.
Henry Keswick’s Legacy
HONG KONG — The world turned its attention to the U.S. presidential election as news broke of Henry Keswick’s passing at the age of 86. A fourth-generation member of the British conglomerate Jardine Matheson, Keswick had a profound influence on the company, which has deep roots in Asia.
Navigating Challenges
Keswick’s leadership spanned significant challenges, including a strained relationship between the U.S. and China, particularly as Donald Trump prepared for his return to the White House. Under his stewardship, Jardine Matheson navigated a complex landscape in retail and real estate that dovetailed with geopolitical shifts.
A Lasting Impact
His contributions to Jardine Matheson and the broader business community have left an indelible mark. As companies reposition themselves amidst evolving international dynamics, Keswick’s legacy will undoubtedly continue to shape the future of the conglomerate he led.
Source : Henry Keswick, the Jardines scion who razed then restored China business
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Faurecia relocates its electronics business headquarters from Japan to China, signaling a strategic shift to enhance operational efficiency and strengthen its presence in the growing Chinese automotive market.
Faurecia’s Strategic Shift
Faurecia has announced the relocation of its electronics business headquarters from Japan to China. This move is aimed at enhancing the company’s presence in a rapidly growing market for automotive technologies. By shifting its base, Faurecia intends to optimize operations and better serve its clientele across Asia.
Strengthening Market Position
The decision is part of Faurecia’s strategy to consolidate its resources in regions where electric and hybrid vehicle demand is soaring. As China leads the global automotive market in innovative technologies, the relocation will allow Faurecia to align its efforts with industry trends and consumer needs.
Future Aspirations
With this strategic shift, Faurecia aims to drive innovation and expand its production capabilities in China. The company expects this decision to create new growth opportunities and help solidify its competitive edge in the evolving automotive landscape.
Source : Faurecia moves headquarters of electronics business from Japan to China – Automotive News
- News Update: China’s Stimulus Falls Short; Sensex and Nifty Decline; Bitcoin Surges Over $82,000
- China’s Import-Export Trends 2024-25: A Thorough Analysis of the Initial 10 Months
- Henry Keswick: The Jardine Scion Who Transformed China’s Business Landscape
- China’s government is about to spend big on stimulus – can it turn around the country’s sluggish economy?
- Data Reveals the Chinese Government’s Popularity is Lower Than State Media Portrays
- Faurecia Relocates Electronics Headquarters from Japan to China – Automotive News
