Economics
Developing Asia to Grow 0.1% in 2020, Growth in the PRC is forecast at 1.8%
Developing Asia is expected to grow by 0.1% this year, the slowest rate since 1961 while Southeast Asia is expected to contract by 2.7%
Developing Asia is expected to grow by 0.1% this year, the slowest rate since 1961, the Asian Development Bank said in a report on Thursday.
Thailand’s economy is expected to shrink by 6.5%, compared to 4.8% in the previous ADB assessment.
Developing Asia will barely grow in 2020 as containment measures to address the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic hamper economic activity and weaken external demand, according to a new set of forecasts from the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
In a regular supplement to its annual flagship economic publication, the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020 released in April, ADB forecasts growth of 0.1% for the region in 2020.
This is down from the 2.2% forecast in April and would be the slowest growth for the region since 1961. Growth in 2021 is expected to rise to 6.2%, as forecast in April.
Gross domestic product (GDP) levels in 2021 will remain below what had been envisioned and below pre-crisis trends.
Risks to the outlook remain on the downside. The COVID-19 pandemic may see multiple waves of outbreaks in the coming period and sovereign debt and financial crises cannot be ruled out. There is also the risk of renewed escalation in trade tensions between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
East Asia is forecast to grow 1.3% in 2020—the only subregion to experience growth this year—while growth in 2021 will recover to 6.8%.
Growth in the PRC is forecast at 1.8% this year and 7.4% in 2021, compared to the April estimates of 2.3% and 7.3%, respectively.
Hit hard by COVID-19, South Asia is forecast to contract by 3.0% in 2020, compared to 4.1% growth predicted in April. Growth prospects for 2021 are revised down to 4.9% from 6.0%. India’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.0% in fiscal year (FY) 2020, ending on 31 March 2021, before growing 5.0% in FY2021.
Southeast Asia is expected to contract by 2.7%
Economic activity in Southeast Asia is expected to contract by 2.7% this year before growing by 5.2% in 2021
Contractions are forecast in key economies as containment measures affect domestic consumption and investment, including Indonesia (-1.0%), the Philippines (-3.8%), and Thailand (-6.5%). Viet Nam is forecast to grow 4.1% in 2020. While that is 0.7 percentage points lower than ADB’s April estimates, it is the fastest growth expected in Southeast Asia.
“Economies in Asia and the Pacific will continue to feel the blow of the COVID-19 pandemic this year even as lockdowns are slowly eased and select economic activities restart in a ‘new normal’ scenario,” said ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada.
“While we see a higher growth outlook for the region in 2021, this is mainly due to weak numbers this year, and this will not be a V-shaped recovery. Governments should undertake policy measures to reduce the negative impact of COVID-19 and ensure that no further waves of outbreaks occur.”
Hit hard by COVID-19, South Asia is forecast to contract by 3.0% in 2020, compared to 4.1% growth predicted in April. Growth prospects for 2021 are revised down to 4.9% from 6.0%. India’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.0% in fiscal year (FY) 2020, ending on 31 March 2021, before growing 5.0% in FY2021.
Business
China Reports Agreement on Ceasefire between Myanmar’s Factions
Myanmar’s conflicting parties have reached a ceasefire agreement, facilitated by China, aiming to reduce violence and promote peace in the region.
Myanmar Ceasefire Agreement
In a significant development, conflicting parties in Myanmar have reached an agreement for a ceasefire, with China facilitating discussions. This breakthrough is crucial for restoring peace in a nation that has been marred by violence and political strife in recent years. The ceasefire aims to pave the way for reconciliation efforts and improve the humanitarian situation in affected areas.
Role of China
China’s involvement as a mediator highlights its growing influence in resolving regional conflicts. The Chinese government has been working closely with both sides to promote dialogue and trust, crucial elements for a long-term peace solution. Increased stability in Myanmar can benefit regional security and economic development, making China’s mediation significant.
Looking Forward
The hope is that this ceasefire will lead to further negotiations addressing underlying issues in Myanmar. While challenges remain, both parties have expressed willingness to work towards a peaceful resolution. The international community will be watching closely to see if this ceasefire can be sustained and lead to enduring peace for the people of Myanmar.
Business
China Limits Apple Operations as BYD Manufacturing Moves to India and Southeast Asia Amid Trade Frictions | International Business News – The Times of India
China is restricting the export of high-tech manufacturing equipment and personnel to India and Southeast Asia, aiming to maintain domestic production amid potential US tariffs, impacting companies like Foxconn and BYD.
China Curbs on High-Tech Manufacturing
China is intensifying restrictions on the movement of employees and specialized equipment essential for high-tech manufacturing in India and Southeast Asia. This measure aims to prevent companies from relocating production due to potential tariffs under the incoming US administration. Beijing has urged local governments to restrict technology transfers and export of manufacturing tools as part of this strategy.
Impact on Foxconn and Apple’s Strategy
Foxconn, Apple’s primary assembly partner, is facing challenges in sending staff and receiving equipment in India, which could impact production. Despite these hurdles, current manufacturing operations remain unaffected. The Chinese government insists it treats all nations equally while reinforcing its domestic production to mitigate job losses and retain foreign investments.
Broader Implications for India
Additionally, these restrictions affect electric vehicle and solar panel manufacturers in India, notably BYD and Waaree Energies. Although the measures are not explicitly targeting India, they complicate the business landscape. As foreign companies seek alternatives to China, these developments are likely to reshape manufacturing strategies amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Business
EFIS Maroc and China Eastern Airlines Set to Launch Service Between Morocco and China
China Eastern Airlines and EFIS Maroc will launch three weekly flights between Casablanca and Shanghai via Marseille starting January 19, 2025, enhancing cargo logistics for Morocco-China trade, particularly in the automotive sector.
New Flight Route Launch
China Eastern Airlines has partnered with EFIS Maroc to introduce three weekly flights between Casablanca (CMN) and Shanghai (PVG) via Marseille (MRS). This service is set to commence on January 19, 2025, operating on Tuesdays, Fridays, and Sundays, using Boeing 787-900 aircraft with a capacity of 18 tonnes for cargo.
Supporting the Automotive Industry
The service aims to enhance logistical support for the automotive sector, facilitating the secure and timely transport of high-value components between Morocco and China. This new route will not only strengthen local supply chains but also promote economic growth and trade relations between Africa and Asia.
Innovative Cargo Solutions
Jean Ceccaldi, CEO of ECS Group, emphasized that this collaboration marks a significant achievement for EFIS Maroc. Leveraging advanced digital tools like Squair for customs optimization and CargoAi for booking, EFIS Maroc will enhance operational efficiency, ensuring a superior cargo management solution tailored for China Eastern Airlines.
Source : EFIS Maroc and China Eastern Airlines to launch Morocco-China service
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