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The tenth Shangri-La Dialogue

Author: Sheryn Lee, ANU On 4-5 June, Singapore was once again awash with security and defence buzz amid the 10 th annual International Institute of Strategic Studies’ Shangri-La Dialogue. While in previous years attention has centred on the keynote address of the US Secretary of Defence, this year’s event was dominated by a first time attendant: the Chinese Defence Minister, General Liang Guanglie. The Chinese General’s appearance heralded the strategic importance of the dialogue as a forum for the world’s leading nations. It also recognised the reality that discussions of regional defence issues and multilateral security initiatives necessitate Beijing’s participation. It seemed fitting that a dialogue that begun with the US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates’ rejection of the notion that the US is in relative decline should end with General Liang proselytising on why the region should be assured that China’s expanding military capabilities are benign. In spite of their almost boilerplate attempts to reassure, the sum effect of these statements was to throw into relief the blunt concerns of regional defence ministers regarding the negative tangent of security developments in maritime Asia. South Korean Defence Minister Kim Kwan Jin stated that Seoul would not continue to show restraint in the face of North Korean aggression, while Russian Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov claimed that the Kuril Islands were not a ‘territorial dispute’ with Japan. By turns, the Vietnamese Defence Minister confirmed the acquisition of six Kilo-class submarines, and the UK Defence Minister Liam Fox outlined ‘greater plans’ for the Five Power Defence Arrangements, with the UK and Australia to conclude a bilateral defence agreement by 2012. In contrast to China’s talk of a desire for a ‘peaceful external environment’ for its ‘peaceful development’, and the pressure it is receiving to become a ‘responsible stakeholder,’ it has done little to moderate its push for overt militarised influence. Its increased presence in the region is having a destabilising effect, not only in the case of the South China Sea, but also in regards to dealing with Pyongyang’s intransigence. Similarly, despite Secretary Gates’ rhetoric, American power in the region cannot keep up the same tempo over the long term. Fiscal constraints and continuing extra-regional demands, in particular in the Middle East, have already begun to take their toll on Washington’s military edge, as China’s modernisation of the PLA rapidly continues. These challenges are largely ignored in the official narratives from formalised settings such as the East Asia Summit (EAS), which have tended to emphasise the possibilities for cooperative responses to regional threats. Even at the Shangri-La Dialogue there was an overwhelming focus on humanitarian aid and disaster relief. There is no question that collaborative efforts in these areas are significant, but the very real elephant of traditional security challenges is being downplayed, even as it threatens to trample regional stability. The question that is seldom asked publicly is: how can the region deal with the shifting power dynamics? Many nations are taking the answer into their own hands by turning towards military modernisation programs of their own, not only to counter China’s efforts but also to prepare for a future in which Washington may not be able to play the role of ‘offshore balancer’. As such, one of the key points that arose at Shangri-La was the desire to build a security architecture robust enough to reduce the likelihood of miscalculation and misunderstanding, and deal with such challenges as negotiating multilateral binding limits on military modernisation, or committing parties to an ‘Incidents at Sea’ agreement. At this point in time, the region lacks the institutions necessary to make such actions credible. While establishing new mechanisms like the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus (ADMM+) and expanding existing ones like the EAS could potentially lead to a security architecture that produces tangible results, neither approach has yet borne fruit with regards to core strategic challenges. The challenge for policymakers is to respond to this demand for an architecture commensurate with the problems of competition and robust enough to bring both the US and China together to deal honestly with their military competition while providing security for smaller regional states. Increasingly, the political and strategic barriers to this challenge appear insurmountable. The region is confronting a contradiction at the heart of multilateral discussion: while talk helps, it only does so if it is frank. Empty talk reflects insincerity, which actually exacerbates distrust amongst participants and accelerates competition. With the failure of security dialogue to achieve the level of trust required for collectiveaction, regional parties are encouraged to take a self-help approach to security by themselves or with traditional partners. As a consequence, there is a risk that the region will descend into bickering and confrontation between highly armed blocs. Rather than contributing to a balance of power, such a scenario raises the risk that certain major extra-regional players, such as the United States, may decide to cut their involvement suddenly in response to domestic and economic pressures. The potential for regional strategic instability would be significant, with conflict triggers abounding from the DMZ to the Paracel Islands. As the region faces the possibility of a conflict spiral exacerbated by distrust, the need to overcome reticence and speak bluntly about regional strategic and economic realities is paramount. Unfortunately, the opportunity for honesty passed Washington and Beijing by at Shangri-La. Sheryn Lee is a research assistant and Robert O’Neill Scholar at the Strategic & Defence Studies Centre, the Australian National University. Assessing the Trilateral Strategic Dialogue East Asia Forum dialogue ADMM+8: An acronym to watch

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Author: Sheryn Lee, ANU

On 4-5 June, Singapore was once again awash with security and defence buzz amid the 10th annual International Institute of Strategic Studies’ Shangri-La Dialogue.

While in previous years attention has centred on the keynote address of the US Secretary of Defence, this year’s event was dominated by a first time attendant: the Chinese Defence Minister, General Liang Guanglie. The Chinese General’s appearance heralded the strategic importance of the dialogue as a forum for the world’s leading nations. It also recognised the reality that discussions of regional defence issues and multilateral security initiatives necessitate Beijing’s participation.

It seemed fitting that a dialogue that begun with the US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates’ rejection of the notion that the US is in relative decline should end with General Liang proselytising on why the region should be assured that China’s expanding military capabilities are benign. In spite of their almost boilerplate attempts to reassure, the sum effect of these statements was to throw into relief the blunt concerns of regional defence ministers regarding the negative tangent of security developments in maritime Asia. South Korean Defence Minister Kim Kwan Jin stated that Seoul would not continue to show restraint in the face of North Korean aggression, while Russian Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov claimed that the Kuril Islands were not a ‘territorial dispute’ with Japan. By turns, the Vietnamese Defence Minister confirmed the acquisition of six Kilo-class submarines, and the UK Defence Minister Liam Fox outlined ‘greater plans’ for the Five Power Defence Arrangements, with the UK and Australia to conclude a bilateral defence agreement by 2012.

In contrast to China’s talk of a desire for a ‘peaceful external environment’ for its ‘peaceful development’, and the pressure it is receiving to become a ‘responsible stakeholder,’ it has done little to moderate its push for overt militarised influence. Its increased presence in the region is having a destabilising effect, not only in the case of the South China Sea, but also in regards to dealing with Pyongyang’s intransigence. Similarly, despite Secretary Gates’ rhetoric, American power in the region cannot keep up the same tempo over the long term. Fiscal constraints and continuing extra-regional demands, in particular in the Middle East, have already begun to take their toll on Washington’s military edge, as China’s modernisation of the PLA rapidly continues.

These challenges are largely ignored in the official narratives from formalised settings such as the East Asia Summit (EAS), which have tended to emphasise the possibilities for cooperative responses to regional threats. Even at the Shangri-La Dialogue there was an overwhelming focus on humanitarian aid and disaster relief. There is no question that collaborative efforts in these areas are significant, but the very real elephant of traditional security challenges is being downplayed, even as it threatens to trample regional stability. The question that is seldom asked publicly is: how can the region deal with the shifting power dynamics?

Many nations are taking the answer into their own hands by turning towards military modernisation programs of their own, not only to counter China’s efforts but also to prepare for a future in which Washington may not be able to play the role of ‘offshore balancer’. As such, one of the key points that arose at Shangri-La was the desire to build a security architecture robust enough to reduce the likelihood of miscalculation and misunderstanding, and deal with such challenges as negotiating multilateral binding limits on military modernisation, or committing parties to an ‘Incidents at Sea’ agreement.

At this point in time, the region lacks the institutions necessary to make such actions credible. While establishing new mechanisms like the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus (ADMM+) and expanding existing ones like the EAS could potentially lead to a security architecture that produces tangible results, neither approach has yet borne fruit with regards to core strategic challenges. The challenge for policymakers is to respond to this demand for an architecture commensurate with the problems of competition and robust enough to bring both the US and China together to deal honestly with their military competition while providing security for smaller regional states.

Increasingly, the political and strategic barriers to this challenge appear insurmountable. The region is confronting a contradiction at the heart of multilateral discussion: while talk helps, it only does so if it is frank. Empty talk reflects insincerity, which actually exacerbates distrust amongst participants and accelerates competition. With the failure of security dialogue to achieve the level of trust required for collectiveaction, regional parties are encouraged to take a self-help approach to security by themselves or with traditional partners. As a consequence, there is a risk that the region will descend into bickering and confrontation between highly armed blocs. Rather than contributing to a balance of power, such a scenario raises the risk that certain major extra-regional players, such as the United States, may decide to cut their involvement suddenly in response to domestic and economic pressures. The potential for regional strategic instability would be significant, with conflict triggers abounding from the DMZ to the Paracel Islands.

As the region faces the possibility of a conflict spiral exacerbated by distrust, the need to overcome reticence and speak bluntly about regional strategic and economic realities is paramount. Unfortunately, the opportunity for honesty passed Washington and Beijing by at Shangri-La.

Sheryn Lee is a research assistant and Robert O’Neill Scholar at the Strategic & Defence Studies Centre, the Australian National University.

  1. Assessing the Trilateral Strategic Dialogue
  2. East Asia Forum dialogue
  3. ADMM+8: An acronym to watch

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The tenth Shangri-La Dialogue

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China

2025 Schedule of Public Holidays in China

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China’s 2025 public holiday schedule increases holidays by two days, with an 8-day Spring Festival and a 5-day Labor Day. Adjustments address public frustration, though long work periods persist. Notably, weekends are often designated as workdays to balance extended breaks.


China has released its 2025 Public Holiday schedule. Compared to 2024, the number of public holidays for all citizens has increased by two days, specifically for Lunar New Year’s Eve and May 2nd.

The announcement also clarifies the adjusted holiday arrangements, stating that the continuous work period before and after statutory holidays generally should not exceed six days, except for certain special circumstances.

According to the notice, in 2025, the Spring Festival will have an 8-day holiday, the Labor Day holiday will last 5 days, and the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival will jointly have 8 days off.

China has long been considered one of the least generous countries in terms of public holidays. Additionally, people have expressed frustration over the complicated adjustments to holiday and working days that are meant to create longer breaks. The newly introduced changes are expected to address these concerns to some extent.

Beyond the newly introduced changes, China’s 2025 public holiday schedule still features two major week-long holidays: Spring Festival (also known as Chinese New Year) and the National Day holiday (often called ‘Golden Week’).

In 2025, the Spring Festival falls between January 28 and February 4, and the National Day holiday, together with the Mid-Autumn Festival, fall between October 1 and 8.

Foreign human resource managers should note that Saturdays and Sundays are often marked as additional official workdays in China to compensate for long holiday breaks. For example, January 26 (Sunday) and February 8 (Saturday) are designated as workdays to partially offset the eight days off for the Spring Festival.


This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in ChinaHong KongVietnamSingapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support.

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China

Black Myth: Wukong – how China’s gaming revolution is fueling its tech power

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Black Myth: Wukong, a Chinese video game, could reshape global tech dominance by driving semiconductor innovation while showcasing China’s cultural influence and challenging Western technological supremacy.

It may sound far-fetched, but the future of global technology supremacy could hinge on a video game.

Black Myth: Wukong, China’s latest blockbuster, isn’t just breaking gaming records – it could be driving a critical shift in the global balance of technological power. What seems like just another action-packed video game is, in reality, a vital component in Beijing’s larger strategy to challenge Western dominance in the tech industry.

The game, released by Chinese company Game Science on Aug. 19, 2024, is based on the legendary 16th century Chinese novel “Journey to the West.” The novel tells the story of a monk, Xuanzang, who journeys to India in search of Buddhist scrolls. The monkey Sun Wukong protects the monk by confronting and battling various demons and spirits.

Black Myth: Wukong has captivated millions with its stunning visuals and storytelling. It quickly became a cultural sensation in China and abroad, attracting widespread attention and praise for its graphic fidelity and technological sophistication.

As global affairs scholars, we see that the game’s success goes beyond the number of downloads or accolades. It’s what this success is driving within China’s technology sector that has far-reaching consequences.

Video games and global power

For years, China has been playing catch-up in the tech race, particularly in the production of semiconductors – the tiny microchips that power everything from smartphones to advanced artificial intelligence systems. The United States has maintained its dominance in this field by limiting China’s access to the most advanced chip-making technology.

As of 2024, China has shifted away from its aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy to a more cooperative approach in order to rebuild international ties. The government has also issued mandates for companies like Huawei to develop domestic chips. However, China’s success in boosting semiconductor development and production using these approaches has been limited.

Historically, video games have played a significant role in driving technological innovation in the semiconductor industry. From the early days of the 8-bit Nintendo Entertainment System to the modern PlayStation 5, gaming has always pushed chipmakers to develop faster, more efficient processors and graphics processing units, or GPUs. The intense graphical requirements of modern games – high resolutions, faster frame rates and real-time rendering – demand the most advanced semiconductor technology. The development of advanced GPUs by companies like NVIDIA was directly influenced by the gaming industry’s needs.

Gamers require advanced processors to enjoy Black Myth: Wukong’s high-end visual and gameplay experience. Built using the state-of-the-art Unreal Engine 5 video game development tool, the game is a visual spectacle featuring lifelike graphics, seamless open-world environments and complex combat systems. The game is available for PlayStation 5 and PCs, and Game Science plans to release an Xbox version.

Black Myth: Wukong features rich visuals and intricate gameplay.
Courtesy of Sony Interactive Entertainment LLC

As Black Myth: Wukong sweeps across gaming platforms, it not only puts pressure on China’s semiconductor makers to build more and better chips, but it also reveals the vast market potential for high-performance hardware, especially for gaming PCs equipped with powerful GPUs. The game’s success showcases just how big the demand is.

Market analysts expect the Chinese video game industry to reach revenues of US$66.13 billion in 2024, compared with $78.01 billion in the U.S. Analysts predict the game will have annual sales of 30 million to 40 million copies in 2024.

China’s gaming industry has surged into a global powerhouse, yet it remains dependent on foreign-made chips. Coupled with the West’s restrictions on chip exports, Wukong has become a key catalyst for China’s semiconductor development, and domestic companies now face growing pressure to innovate.

This pressure aligns with Beijing’s broader technological ambitions. The government’s “Made in China 2025” plan calls for technological self-reliance, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, where China lags behind. And advanced GPUs haven’t been confined to the entertainment industry. They have become integral to advances in AI, including deep learning and autonomous systems.

Flexing China’s cultural muscle

While it might seem strange to link video games with geopolitics, Black Myth: Wukong is more than just entertainment. It’s a tool in China’s soft power arsenal. Soft power is nations influencing each other through cultural exports. For decades, the West, particularly the U.S., dominated global culture through Hollywood, music and video games.

Now, China is flexing its cultural muscle. The success of Black Myth: Wukong abroad, where it has been hailed as a game-changing title, is part of Beijing’s strategy to export its culture and technological prowess. Millions of gamers around the world are now being exposed to Chinese mythology, art and storytelling through a highly sophisticated digital medium.

‘China Stay Winning’ American YouTubers react enthusiastically to Black Myth: Wukong. (Audio NSFW)

But Black Myth: Wukong isn’t just a cultural triumph for China; it’s a warning shot. The country is taking advantage of its booming gaming industry to drive advances in a field that will define the future of technology. This game not only exports Chinese culture but also strengthens its tech base by accelerating the demand for domestic semiconductors.

While Black Myth: Wukong entertains millions, it also shows China’s growing influence in the digital realm. In the future, we might not look back at Black Myth: Wukong as just a successful video game, but as a catalyst that helped China close the technological gap with the West. Beijing is playing a long game, and video games like Black Myth: Wukong are turning out to be effective weapons.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Business

News Update: China’s Stimulus Falls Short; Sensex and Nifty Decline; Bitcoin Surges Over $82,000

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Asian markets showed mixed trends amid China’s stimulus measures and disappointing inflation data. Meanwhile, Indian equities remained stable, with mutual fund inflows rising. Bitcoin surged following Trump’s presidential win.


Business Hook Daily News Podcast

Good evening! Welcome to Business Hook’s daily news podcast. I’m Avni Raja, and today is November 11, 2024. Let’s dive into the day’s top business stories.

Market Reactions and Economic Data

Asian markets experienced a mixed session as investors digested new economic data and stimulus measures from China. The Chinese government announced a $1.4 trillion package targeting local government debt, although analysts deemed it underwhelming. October’s inflation rate of 0.3% fell short of estimates and declined for the second month in a row. As a result, the CSI 300 saw a slight gain, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped over 1.5%. In India, the Sensex closed below 74,500, and the Nifty ended above 24,100, with a majority of Nifty stocks declining.

Mutual Fund Inflows and Upcoming IPOs

There’s encouraging news in the mutual fund sector, with October seeing net inflows of 2.4 lakh crore rupees, reversing the previous month’s outflows. Record equity inflows have risen to nearly 42,000 crore rupees, reflecting robust domestic investor confidence. In the IPO space, LG Electronics prepares to raise $1.5 billion by listing its Indian arm, with banks like Axis Capital involved in the process, potentially leading to an IPO as early as 2025.

Cryptocurrency Surge

In cryptocurrency news, Bitcoin has achieved new highs, surpassing $82,000. This surge is attributed to Donald Trump’s recent presidential victory, which has favored cryptocurrencies compared to more cautious Democratic approaches. Experts speculate that Bitcoin could surpass $90,000 soon. That’s all for today’s wrap-up. Join us again tomorrow, and check out the Business Hook YouTube channel for more updates.

Source : News Wrap | China Stimulus Disappoints; Sensex & Nifty Slip; Bitcoin Soars Past $82,000

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