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China

Where is China headed?

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Author: Jerome A. Cohen, NYU

Forecasts of China’s future run the gamut. I do not endorse either extreme. There is no significant chance that in the foreseeable future the Communist government will follow the fate of the Soviet Union. Nor do I share the view that the People’s Republic of China is becoming so powerful that it will dominate the world.

Despite its remarkable recent achievements, China’s economic, social and political problems are many and growing. It is possible that Beijing’s performance may now have peaked. Its accumulating problems and failure to develop a political system able to adequately deal with them may soon be seen — both inside and outside the country — to constrict its further progress and the deployment of its impressive assets.

A man looks at portraits of the Chinese President Xi Jinping along with his predecessors Hu Jintao, Jiang Zemin and Deng Xiaoping. (Photo: AAP)

Many a Chinese leader must think it a cruel twist of fate that a regime that has done so much to improve the living standards of hundreds of millions of people should be so obviously frightened about its continuing viability. Yet the Chinese Communist Party can be seen as a victim of its own successes as well as its apparent failures. No country can modernise as rapidly as China without suffering the enormous consequences of immense social change.

Rather than basking in the gratitude of a contented nation, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his colleagues have revealed themselves to all the world as cats on a hot tin roof. Their pomp and propaganda at home and abroad cannot conceal their fear of overthrow or disintegration. Their attempt to limit the impact of Western values, ideas, institutions and practices — embodied in the current draft legislation to restrict foreign cooperation from international NGOs in education, civic affairs and politics — is a deeply embarrassing and shameful public confession of the fragility of their system.

Having benefited from several decades of the ‘open policy’ initiated by Deng Xiaoping, his fear-mongering successors now want to cut off the ‘ideological infiltration’ they believe threatens their ‘democratic dictatorship’. If successful, this new policy will inhibit China’s ability to respond to domestic and global demands. As my colleague Ira Belkin recently noted: ‘It’s a bad 1960s policy for a 2015 challenge’.

Because of the system’s lack of transparency, Xi knows far better than we do the vulnerabilities underlying China’s formidable achievements. Staggering pollution, massive corruption, labour unrest, unfair land transfers, growing income inequality, arbitrary bureaucracy, ethnic tensions and invidious social discriminations, increasing persecution of human rights lawyers and civil society reformers, a Party-dominated judiciary, and ever greater curbs on social gatherings, journalism, the internet and social media are fuelling discontent and resentment — which a now significantly troubled economy and an anticipated stock market crash can ignite. As Chairman Mao admonished, and the 4 June 1989 Tiananmen tragedy demonstrated, ‘a single spark can start a prairie fire’.

Yet repression offers no long-run solution and cannot last forever. In the mid-1980s, Taiwan’s then president Chiang Ching-kuo, although heir to his father Chiang Kai-shek’s Leninist party dictatorship, recognised that secure progress requires gradual political reform and launched the process that transformed Taiwan into a vibrant democracy. China needs similar enlightened leadership today.

Understandably, China’s Communist elite is far from united in how to confront its many challenges. Despite General Secretary Xi’s attempt to impose monolithic controls on the Party, the first three years of his rule have exposed major cracks in the leadership. The life sentence meted out behind closed doors in early June to China’s formerly feared national security chief, Zhou Yongkang, is only the most recent evidence of a continuing power struggle and indicates how the Party’s ‘socialist rule of law with Chinese characteristics’ operates.

The Chinese people, who have generally supported Xi’s persisting campaign to reduce official corruption, are waiting to see whether he is willing to risk further elite dissension by pursuing corrupt leaders who, unlike Zhou, have not been his political rivals. At the same time, many Chinese are hoping that Xi will moderate his repressive course and gradually lead them toward reforms that will give full play to their prodigious capacities.

Although I am generally an optimist, China’s current prospects for desirable reforms nevertheless remind me of Alexander Pope’s famous couplet: ‘Hope springs eternal in the human breast. Man never is, but always to be, blest’.

Jerome A. Cohen is a professor of law at New York University. He is co-director of its US–Asia Law Institute and adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

This essay is based on his 17 June testimony before the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the US House of Representatives.

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Where is China headed?

Business

BRICS: China Classifies Crypto as Property and Prohibits Business Ownership

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China’s Shanghai court ruled cryptocurrencies are property, boosting optimism in the crypto industry while maintaining a ban on business transactions. This may signal a shift in future regulations.


China’s Ruling on Cryptocurrency

In a pivotal decision for the nation and its BRICS alliance, China has officially classified cryptocurrency as property while maintaining prohibitions against business transactions involving digital assets. A notable ruling from the Shanghai Songjiant People’s Court affirmed cryptocurrencies as property, sparking optimism within the crypto industry regarding future regulations.

Implications for the Crypto Industry

As cryptocurrencies gain significance globally, the Chinese ruling is viewed as a potential-positive shift amidst ongoing restrictions. While individuals can hold virtual currency, businesses remain barred from engaging in investment transactions or issuing tokens independently. This decision has generated anticipation for more accommodating regulations in the future.

Future Prospects for Cryptocurrency in China

Experts like Max Keiser believe this ruling indicates China’s growing acknowledgment of Bitcoin’s influence. As BRICS nations explore increased cryptocurrency utilization in trade, this legal shift could enhance market demand and lead to greater acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class, setting the stage for potential developments in 2025.

Source : BRICS: China Rules Crypto as Property, Bars Business Holdings

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Digital Taxation in China: Effects on Corporate Tax Risk Management and Compliance Strategies

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Tax digitalization in China enhances efficiency and accuracy in tax administration through AI and technology. Significant advancements include online services, e-invoicing, and data integration, improving risk management. The government targets further reforms by 2025 to establish a robust intelligent taxation system.


Tax digitalization, also known as “digitalized tax administration” or “tax administration by data,” is gaining momentum in China. Enabled by digital technologies and artificial intelligence, Chinese tax authorities have significantly improved the efficiency and accuracy of tax administration. As a result, tax risks are now easier to identify, and tax audits have become more focused and targeted.

The Chinese tax bureau has made significant efforts to advance tax administration through digital upgrades and intelligent transformation. By utilizing modern information technology, the tax authorities have established platforms such as the electronic tax bureau, which enables online processing of tax registration, filing, and payments. Additionally, the promotion of electronic invoicing and the Golden Tax IV system has improved the efficiency and accuracy of tax administration.

This digital landscape allows tax authorities to integrate data from various sources, including invoices, banking information, business records, and customs data. Such integration facilitates more accurate identification of potential tax risks.

This article explores the impact of tax digitalization on businesses in China, emphasizing the evolving dynamics of tax risk management, particularly regarding data supervision.

At the opening ceremony of the 5th Belt and Road Initiative Tax Administration Cooperation Forum on September 24, 2024, Hu Jinglin, Commissioner of the State Taxation Administration (STA) of China, delivered a speech outlining the efforts of Chinese tax authorities to enhance tax administration and efficiency. He emphasized the importance of advancing tax governance through data, highlighting the STA’s commitment to leveraging data and algorithms for intelligent tax management.

Currently, a pilot program for fully digitalized electronic invoices (e-fapiao) has been expanded nationwide, alongside the launch of a unified electronic tax bureau. Additionally, a smart office platform for tax personnel is under development. These systems aim to provide intelligent services for taxpayers and enable tax officers to deliver differentiated and precise services based on dynamic credit risk assessments.

Furthermore, according to a document released by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and General Office of the State Council in 2021, titled “Opinions on Further Deepening the Reform of Tax Collection and Administration,” China aims to achieve significant progress by 2025 in reforming its tax administration system. In particular, it aims to establish a robust and intelligent taxation framework and develop a first-class intelligent administrative application system, thereby improving tax law enforcement, service, and regulatory capabilities.


This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in ChinaHong KongVietnamSingapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support.

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Farms to fame: How China’s rural influencers are redefining country life

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In Yunnan, influencer Dianxi Xiaoge redefines rural China’s image, showcasing pastoral life, bridging cultural gaps between urbanites and rural communities, and sparking interest through nostalgic content and government support.

In the quiet backwaters of Yunnan, Dong Meihua – though her followers know her by the public alias Dianxi Xiaoge – has done something remarkable: She’s taken the pastoral simplicity of rural China and made it irresistible to millions. In her hands, a village kitchen becomes a stage, and the rhythms of farm life become a story as compelling as any novel. She is one of many rural influencers returning to their roots.

In a digital revolution turning established narratives on their head, China’s countryside is emerging as an unlikely epicenter of viral content. Xiaoge is one of thousands of influencers redefining through social media how the countryside is perceived.

Upending preconceptions of rural China as a hinterland of poverty and stagnation, this new breed of social media mavens is serving up a feast of bucolic bliss to millions of urbanites. It is a narrative shift encouraged by authorities; the Chinese government has given its blessing to influencers promoting picturesque rural images. Doing so helps downplay urban-rural chasms and stoke national pride. It also fits nicely with Beijing’s rural revitalization strategy.

Hardship to revival

To fully appreciate any phenomenon, it’s necessary to first consider the historical context. For decades, China’s countryside was synonymous with hardship and backwardness. The Great Leap Forward of the late 1950s and early 1960s – Communist China’s revered founder Mao Zedong’s disastrous attempt to industrialize a largely agrarian country – devastated rural communities and led to widespread famine that saw tens of millions die.

The subsequent Cultural Revolution, in which Mao strengthened his grip on power through a broad purge of the nation’s intelligentsia, further disrupted customary rural life as educated youth were sent to the countryside for “reeducation.” These traumatic events inflicted deep scars on the rural psyche and economy.

Meanwhile, the “hukou” system, which since the late 1950s has tied social benefits to a person’s birthplace and divided citizens into “agricultural ” and “nonagricultural” residency status, has created a stark divide between urban and rural citizens.

The reform era of Mao’s successor, Deng Xiaoping, beginning in 1978, brought new challenges. As China’s cities boomed, the countryside lagged behind.

Millions of rural Chinese have migrated to cities for better opportunities, abandoning aging populations and hollowed-out communities. In 1980, 19% of China’s population lived in urban areas. By 2023, that figure had risen to 66%.

Government policies have since developed extensively toward rural areas. The abolition of agricultural taxes in 2006 heralded a major milestone, demonstrating a renewed commitment to rural prosperity. Most recently, President Xi Jinping’s “rural revitalization” has put countryside development at the forefront of national policy. The launch of the Internet Plus Agriculture initiative and investment in rural e-commerce platforms such as Taobao Villages allow isolated farming communities to connect to urban markets.

Notwithstanding these efforts, China’s urban-rural income gap remains substantial, with the average annual per capita disposable income of rural households standing at 21,691 yuan (about US$3,100), approximately 40% of the amount for urban households.

Enter the ‘new farmer’

Digital-savvy farmers and countryside dwellers have used nostalgia and authenticity to win over Chinese social media. Stars such as Li Ziqi and Dianxi Xiaoge have racked up huge numbers of followers as they paint rural China as both an idyllic escape and a thriving cultural hub.

The Chinese term for this social media phenomenon is “new farmer.” This encapsulates the rise of rural celebrities who use platforms such as Douyin and Weibo to document and commercialize their way of life. Take Sister Yu: With over 23 million followers, she showcases the rustic charm of northeast China as she pickles vegetables and cooks hearty meals. Or Peng Chuanming: a farmer in Fujian whose videos on crafting traditional teas and restoring his home have captivated millions.

Since 2016, these platforms have turned rural life into digital gold. What began as simple documentation has evolved into a phenomenon commanding enormous audiences, fueled not just by nostalgia but also economic necessity. China’s post-COVID-19 economic downturn, marked by soaring youth unemployment and diminishing urban opportunities, has driven some to seek livelihoods in the countryside.

In China’s megacities, where the air is thick with pollution and opportunity, there’s clearly a hunger for something real – something that doesn’t come shrink-wrapped or with a QR code. And rural influencers serve slices of a life many thought lost to China’s breakneck development.

Compared with their urban counterparts, rural influencers carve out a unique niche in China’s vast social media landscape. Although fashion bloggers, gaming streamers and lifestyle gurus dominate platforms such as Weibo and Douyin, the Chinese TikTok, rural content creators tap into a different cultural romanticism and a yearning for connection to nature. In addition, their content capitalizes on the rising popularity of short video platforms such as Kuaishou and Pinduoduo, augmenting their reach across a wide demographic, from nostalgic retirees to eco-conscious millennials.

But this is not simply digital escapism for the masses. Tourism is booming in once-forgotten villages. Traditional crafts are finding new markets. In 2020 alone, Taobao Villages reported a staggering 1.2 trillion yuan (around $169.36 billion) in sales.

The Chinese government, never one to miss a PR opportunity, has spotted potential. Rural revitalization is now the buzzword among government officials. It’s a win-win: Villagers net economic opportunities, and the state polishes its reputation as a champion of traditional values. Government officials have leveraged platforms such as X to showcase China’s rural revitalization efforts to international audiences.

Authenticity or illusion?

As with all algorithms, there’s a catch to the new farmer movement. The more popular rural influencers become, the more pressure they face to perform “authenticity.” Or put another way: The more real it looks, the less real it might actually be.

It raises another question: Who truly benefits? Are we witnessing rural empowerment or a commodification of rural life for urban consumption? With corporate sponsors and government initiatives piling in, the line between genuine representation and curated fantasy blurs.

Local governments, recognizing the economic potential, have begun offering subsidies to rural content creators, causing skepticism about whether this content is truly grassroots or part of a bigger, state-led campaign to sanitize the countryside’s image.

Yet, for all the conceivable pitfalls, the new farmer trend is an opportunity to challenge the urban-centric narrative that has dominated China’s development story for decades and rethink whether progress always means high-rises and highways, or if there’s value in preserving ways of life that have sustained communities for centuries.

More importantly, it’s narrowing the cultural disconnect that has long separated China’s rural and urban populations. In a country where your hukou can determine your destiny, these viral videos foster understanding in ways that no government program ever could.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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