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China

Where is China headed?

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Author: Jerome A. Cohen, NYU

Forecasts of China’s future run the gamut. I do not endorse either extreme. There is no significant chance that in the foreseeable future the Communist government will follow the fate of the Soviet Union. Nor do I share the view that the People’s Republic of China is becoming so powerful that it will dominate the world.

Despite its remarkable recent achievements, China’s economic, social and political problems are many and growing. It is possible that Beijing’s performance may now have peaked. Its accumulating problems and failure to develop a political system able to adequately deal with them may soon be seen — both inside and outside the country — to constrict its further progress and the deployment of its impressive assets.

A man looks at portraits of the Chinese President Xi Jinping along with his predecessors Hu Jintao, Jiang Zemin and Deng Xiaoping. (Photo: AAP)

Many a Chinese leader must think it a cruel twist of fate that a regime that has done so much to improve the living standards of hundreds of millions of people should be so obviously frightened about its continuing viability. Yet the Chinese Communist Party can be seen as a victim of its own successes as well as its apparent failures. No country can modernise as rapidly as China without suffering the enormous consequences of immense social change.

Rather than basking in the gratitude of a contented nation, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his colleagues have revealed themselves to all the world as cats on a hot tin roof. Their pomp and propaganda at home and abroad cannot conceal their fear of overthrow or disintegration. Their attempt to limit the impact of Western values, ideas, institutions and practices — embodied in the current draft legislation to restrict foreign cooperation from international NGOs in education, civic affairs and politics — is a deeply embarrassing and shameful public confession of the fragility of their system.

Having benefited from several decades of the ‘open policy’ initiated by Deng Xiaoping, his fear-mongering successors now want to cut off the ‘ideological infiltration’ they believe threatens their ‘democratic dictatorship’. If successful, this new policy will inhibit China’s ability to respond to domestic and global demands. As my colleague Ira Belkin recently noted: ‘It’s a bad 1960s policy for a 2015 challenge’.

Because of the system’s lack of transparency, Xi knows far better than we do the vulnerabilities underlying China’s formidable achievements. Staggering pollution, massive corruption, labour unrest, unfair land transfers, growing income inequality, arbitrary bureaucracy, ethnic tensions and invidious social discriminations, increasing persecution of human rights lawyers and civil society reformers, a Party-dominated judiciary, and ever greater curbs on social gatherings, journalism, the internet and social media are fuelling discontent and resentment — which a now significantly troubled economy and an anticipated stock market crash can ignite. As Chairman Mao admonished, and the 4 June 1989 Tiananmen tragedy demonstrated, ‘a single spark can start a prairie fire’.

Yet repression offers no long-run solution and cannot last forever. In the mid-1980s, Taiwan’s then president Chiang Ching-kuo, although heir to his father Chiang Kai-shek’s Leninist party dictatorship, recognised that secure progress requires gradual political reform and launched the process that transformed Taiwan into a vibrant democracy. China needs similar enlightened leadership today.

Understandably, China’s Communist elite is far from united in how to confront its many challenges. Despite General Secretary Xi’s attempt to impose monolithic controls on the Party, the first three years of his rule have exposed major cracks in the leadership. The life sentence meted out behind closed doors in early June to China’s formerly feared national security chief, Zhou Yongkang, is only the most recent evidence of a continuing power struggle and indicates how the Party’s ‘socialist rule of law with Chinese characteristics’ operates.

The Chinese people, who have generally supported Xi’s persisting campaign to reduce official corruption, are waiting to see whether he is willing to risk further elite dissension by pursuing corrupt leaders who, unlike Zhou, have not been his political rivals. At the same time, many Chinese are hoping that Xi will moderate his repressive course and gradually lead them toward reforms that will give full play to their prodigious capacities.

Although I am generally an optimist, China’s current prospects for desirable reforms nevertheless remind me of Alexander Pope’s famous couplet: ‘Hope springs eternal in the human breast. Man never is, but always to be, blest’.

Jerome A. Cohen is a professor of law at New York University. He is co-director of its US–Asia Law Institute and adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

This essay is based on his 17 June testimony before the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the US House of Representatives.

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Where is China headed?

Business

China Reports Agreement on Ceasefire between Myanmar’s Factions

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Myanmar’s conflicting parties have reached a ceasefire agreement, facilitated by China, aiming to reduce violence and promote peace in the region.


Myanmar Ceasefire Agreement

In a significant development, conflicting parties in Myanmar have reached an agreement for a ceasefire, with China facilitating discussions. This breakthrough is crucial for restoring peace in a nation that has been marred by violence and political strife in recent years. The ceasefire aims to pave the way for reconciliation efforts and improve the humanitarian situation in affected areas.

Role of China

China’s involvement as a mediator highlights its growing influence in resolving regional conflicts. The Chinese government has been working closely with both sides to promote dialogue and trust, crucial elements for a long-term peace solution. Increased stability in Myanmar can benefit regional security and economic development, making China’s mediation significant.

Looking Forward

The hope is that this ceasefire will lead to further negotiations addressing underlying issues in Myanmar. While challenges remain, both parties have expressed willingness to work towards a peaceful resolution. The international community will be watching closely to see if this ceasefire can be sustained and lead to enduring peace for the people of Myanmar.

Source : Myanmar’s two sides agree to ceasefire: China

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China

2024 China Economic Review: GDP, Trade, and Foreign Direct Investment Analysis

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In 2024, China’s economy grew 5%, supported by stimulus measures, strong exports, and high-tech investments, despite weak domestic demand and demographic challenges. Key sectors like manufacturing and digital economy thrived, necessitating structural reforms for sustained growth into 2025.


China’s economy grew 5% in 2024, driven by stimulus measures, strong exports, and high-tech investment, despite challenges like weak domestic demand and demographic pressures. Structural reforms and targeted policies are essential for sustaining growth into 2025.

China’s economic performance in 2024 saw a return to steady growth, achieving a 5 percent GDP expansion in line with the government’s target, as per the official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on January 17, 2025. This outcome was largely bolstered by stimulus measures that helped drive a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter recovery. While the country’s economy faced challenges such as declining population numbers and sluggish consumer demand, there were signs of optimism across key sectors, including industrial output and digital economy growth.  

Additionally, China is beginning to pivot away from its dependence on the property sector, with the digital economy playing an increasingly significant role in economic expansion.  

This article explores the major economic highlights from 2024 and examines the key trends, challenges, and opportunities that will shape China’s economy in the year ahead. 

In 2024, China’s GDP reached RMB 134.91 trillion (US$18.80 trillion), maintaining its position as the second-largest economy in the world, behind only the United States, whose projected GDP for 2024 stands at approximately US$29 trillion. This reflects a year-on-year growth of 5.0 percent, in line with the government’s official target of “around 5 percent“ set during the 2024 Two Sessions. While slower than the 5.2 percent growth achieved in 2023, it highlights a stable recovery largely driven by strong export performance and targeted stimulus measures throughout the year. 

The economy saw accelerated growth in the final quarter of 2024, with GDP expanding by 5.4 percent, surpassing expectations and making a substantial contribution to the overall 5.0 percent increase. Indeed, quarterly growth performance in 2024 showed steady improvement: the first quarter recorded a 5.3 percent increase, followed by 4.7 percent in Q2, and 4.6 percent in Q3.  

Sectoral performance highlights revealed the manufacturing and service sectors as key drivers.  


This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in ChinaHong KongVietnamSingapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support.

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China

How China’s appetite for salmon could reshape global seafood markets – new research

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China’s salmon demand surged 46% in 2023, prompting global exporters to respond. Challenges in domestic salmon production highlight opportunities for rainbow trout, reshaping the seafood market towards sustainability and consumer preferences.

China’s demand for farmed salmon is growing at an unprecedented pace. In 2023, its imports grew by 46% year on year – with imports of fresh and chilled Atlantic salmon up 63%.

This remarkable growth is reshaping the global seafood trade. Exporters from Scotland, Norway, Chile, Australia, Faroe Islands, Canada and Iceland are racing to supply the needs of this vast and rapidly evolving market.

At the same time, China’s efforts to produce its own Atlantic salmon have faced significant challenges, highlighting the need for substitutes like rainbow trout to meet the country’s growing appetite for seafood delicacies.

An important shift occurred in 2018, when the Chinese government permitted rainbow trout to be labelled and sold as salmon. This decision blurred the distinction between imported Atlantic salmon and locally farmed rainbow trout, creating a more accessible option for cost-sensitive consumers.

Trout is comparable to salmon in appearance and size, with firm and oily meat that has a similar orange-pink colour. Nutritionally too, the species are alike, as are the ways in which they can be cooked and prepared.

In our new research which included taste tests, we found that many Chinese consumers could not distinguish between domestic rainbow trout and imported Atlantic salmon in blind testing. But when informed about the origin, testers’ preferences shifted strongly in favour of imported Atlantic salmon, highlighting the power of provenance in consumer tastes.

Although people’s willingness to pay did not vary initially in our blind tests, it became a decisive factor once the origin of the fish was revealed.

But we found that origin alone was not enough. For our testers to be prepared to pay higher prices, they also had to like the look, smell and taste of the product more, or be persuaded by its ecolabel (indicating environmental standards).

Environmental costs

Transporting Atlantic salmon from Scottish lochs, Norwegian fjords or Chilean waters to Chinese markets involves complex logistics and significant environmental costs. The carbon footprint of this trade, combined with the resource-intensive nature of salmon aquaculture, raises critical concerns about sustainability.

These challenges are particularly pronounced in China, where consumers have a strong preference for freshness. This drives demand for quick delivery of imported salmon despite its environmental impact, and consumers are increasingly turning to online platforms to buy their seafood.

E-commerce has reshaped seafood retail in China, offering quick delivery and products that cater to consumer demand for quality and freshness. Salmon stands out in this market due to its perceived high value, premium quality and price point. Unlike other expensive seafood that often needs to be sold live to maintain its value, salmon retains its appeal when chilled or frozen.

This makes salmon particularly suited to modern retail models, where sophisticated cold-chain logistics ensure its freshness without the complexities of live transport. However, these innovations come at a cost.

The energy-intensive storage and rapid transportation required for imported salmon contribute significantly to environmental harm. As China’s seafood market continues to grow, addressing the sustainability challenges associated with this trade will be critical to balancing consumer demand with environmental responsibility. Current international certification schemes aiming to improve the sector’s sustainability have had limited impact in China so far.

A worker processing imported fresh salmon in a Beijing wholesale seafood market.
David Little, Author provided

China has made significant efforts to establish a domestic Atlantic salmon industry, but these attempts have largely been unsuccessful due to technical challenges and environmental constraints. This has left a gap that domestically farmed rainbow trout is poised to fill.

A trout farming raceway in Chengdu, China, supplied with fresh river water.
Zixuan Ma, Author provided

In 2022, China produced 37,000 tonnes of rainbow trout. This is a relatively small amount compared with international production levels, but still notable considering that rainbow trout is a new farmed species in China, unlike traditional species like carp.

However, rainbow trout farming in China is geographically constrained, as the species thrives in cooler freshwater temperatures found in higher-lying lakes and reservoirs, as well as in “raceways” (channels supplied continuously with fresh water diverted from rivers).

Advances in aquaculture systems offer a potential pathway to expand China’s production. Trout farming is a more sustainable, locally sourced alternative to Atlantic salmon that reduces the carbon footprint associated with imports and ensures fresher options for Chinese consumers. Developing a robust domestic trout industry could enhance food security, reduce dependence on imports, and create economic opportunities in rural areas.

China’s evolving seafood market offers valuable lessons for the global industry. Emphasising quality, freshness and sustainability will resonate with the increasingly sophisticated Chinese consumer.

At the same time, investment in eco-friendly aquaculture practices, both domestically and internationally, will be essential to balance the growing demand for premium seafood with environmental responsibility. These could include reducing feed waste and recirculating aquaculture systems (which filter and reuse water) to minimise water use. Recycling waste nutrients by using them elsewhere in food production could also be key.

As rainbow trout gains prominence in China’s seafood landscape, the relationship between consumer preferences, environmental concerns and economic opportunities could in turn shape the future of the global salmon trade.

If domestic fish captures a larger share of the Chinese market, salmon producers in Europe, Canada and other exporting regions may face significant challenges. This could ultimately force them to rethink their strategies in order to adapt to shifting market dynamics.

Although the goal of creating a domestic Atlantic salmon industry has proved difficult for China, trout farming presents a practical and sustainable solution for its luxury seafood sector.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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