Trade
Adapting Asia Pacific tourism to a post-pandemic future
Authors: Jun Wen and Fangli Hu, Edith Cowan University and Danni Zheng, Fudan University
The Asia Pacific tourism industry was thriving before the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by strong demand from Chinese tourists with increasing disposable incomes.
Pre-pandemic, Chinese tourists’ arrival to the Asia Pacific region was forecast to increase to 150 million by 2020, with an aggregate expenditure of US$230 billion. But this did not materialise due to pandemic-related travel restrictions that still affect Chinese tourists today.
Historically, Chinese tourists tended to travel as part of package trips involving group tours with multiple destination stops. This trend is changing as younger Chinese tourists favour more independent forms of travel that allow greater flexibility. But the thriving tourism industry was completely disrupted by the pandemic. The Asia Pacific suffered an 84 per cent plunge in overseas visitors and recorded a 300 million decrease in tourist arrivals. This led to a massive slowdown in the aviation, hotel, restaurant and tourism industries that still lingers today.
As Asia Pacific’s travel and tourism industry slowly recovers to pre-pandemic levels, some key trends have emerged. There is higher demand for rural and coastal destinations that have natural elements and offer more privacy compared to urban destinations.
This is influenced by COVID-19 lockdowns which were particularly harsh for those living in high-density city apartments. Ongoing COVID-19 concerns mean that tourists tend to keep their travel plans simple, flexible and close to home.
There has been a significant increase in eco-tourism and wellness-based tourism. Since the pandemic, physical and mental health awareness has increased. This is part of a broader trend of younger tourists seeking socially conscious and sustainable tourism that supports the local community and the environment.
The tourism industry is largely driven by the private sector, but it still depends on an intricate network of government rules, inter-country travel agreements and infrastructure investments. In the short term, tourist destinations and governments need to be vigilant about protecting against overtourism as travel rebounds in key markets — excluding China — in the Asia Pacific region.
Overtourism is defined by UNWTO as ‘the impact of tourism on a destination… that excessively influences perceived quality of life of citizens and/ or quality of visitors’ experiences in a negative way’. Contemporary youth emphasise sustainability and this provides opportunities for governments to promote new sustainable tourism initiatives and enterprises.
The future of tourism across the Asia Pacific must include diversification that extends beyond the traditional demographic of overseas visitors. In 2019, domestic tourist expenditures across the Asia Pacific reached an all-time high. Destinations must be promoted to domestic markets to support the quick return of visitors in the short term.
In the medium term, destinations should strive to diversify visitors and build resilience. The pandemic has inadvertently led to some silver linings by reducing overtourism, which has dispersed job creation and the economic benefits of tourism spending for top destinations, while supporting tourism beyond these destinations.
The tourism industry can recalibrate the travel market to promote interregional travel and redress the balance away from China in the short to medium term. Chinese outbound tourism is not forecast to restart until at least 2023 and will not return to its pre-pandemic levels until 2024 due to China’s zero-COVID-19 policy.
Beijing has remained firm with its zero-COVID-19 policy, which effectively bans outbound travel. International flights are severely restricted and international arrivals are subject to strict quarantine. Although China is easing its quarantine and travel restrictions, the timeline for a return to ‘normal’ remains unpredictable.
Hong Kong’s tourism industry will likely take two to three years to recover. While the current ‘0+3’ quarantine policy has attracted some Asian tourists to Hong Kong, it is still insufficient to boost tourism. But there are still opportunities for Hong Kong tourism investors.
The gradual progression of the 0+3 policy toward the complete removal of entry quarantine restrictions and the continued promotion of quarantine-free customs clearance for travellers from mainland China provides a glimmer of hope for Hong Kong’s tourism recovery. Once mainland China’s outbound travel resumes,…
Trade
Self-Reliance and Openness: Core Principles of China’s Third Plenary Session
The Third Plenum communique from the CCP indicates a prioritization of stability and compromise in response to China’s economic challenges. It highlights the concept of Chinese-style modernization and establishes political guidelines for balancing regulation and market forces.
The CCP’s Third Plenum communique signals a focus on stability and compromise in the face of China’s economic challenges. It emphasises Chinese-style modernisation and sets political directions for balancing regulation and market forces. While not as groundbreaking as previous plenums, it acknowledges the importance of market mechanisms and technological self-reliance, aiming to address issues like high youth unemployment and private sector uncertainty. The communique seeks to navigate the complexities of global competition and domestic innovation, potentially reshaping global supply chains and trade dynamics. Overall, it presents a pragmatic blueprint for China’s economic future.
Source : Self-reliance and openness central pillars of China’s Third Plenum | East Asia Forum
Trade
Trade Prevails Over Political Persuasions in China-Germany Relations
China and Germany maintain a strong bilateral relationship, rooted in economic cooperation despite ideological differences. Recent visits and agreements focus on expanding trade and addressing mutual concerns, navigating challenges while nurturing ties.
Evolving Bilateral Ties
China and Germany share a strong bilateral relationship, rooted in history since 1972. This connection has seen moments of cooperation intertwined with periods of tension. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s April 2024 visit underscores Germany’s commitment to fostering this partnership, reflecting a mutual interest in maintaining economic ties despite ideological differences.
Economic Pragmatism
As the second and third largest global economies, China and Germany’s economic interdependence is crucial. Germany emerged as China’s primary trading partner in 2023, with trade values reaching €254.4 billion (US$280 billion). In response to global scrutiny, Germany has taken a balanced approach, emphasizing economic stability over political discord. This was evident during Scholz’s prior visit in November 2022, where his diplomatic tone contrasted with broader EU sentiments.
Facing Challenges Together
Despite increasing public skepticism in Germany regarding China’s global influence and human rights issues, both nations continue to seek common ground. Their October 2023 Joint Statement highlights intentions to pursue cooperation in areas like carbon neutrality and open markets. To navigate these complex terrains, Germany can utilize its institutional frameworks to enhance dialogue, while also considering supply chain diversification to reduce dependency on China. The intertwining nature of their economies suggests that, despite challenges, both countries will continue to prioritize their substantial trade relations.
Source : Trade trumps political persuasions in China–Germany relations
Trade
Fixing fragmentation in the settlement of international trade disputes
Fragmentation in global trade due to the lack of development in multilateral trade rules at the WTO has led to an increase in FTAs. The Appellate Body impasse has further exacerbated fragmentation, requiring a multilateral approach for reform.
Fragmentation in Global Trade
Fragmentation in global trade is not new. With the slow development of multilateral trade rules at the World Trade Organization (WTO), governments have turned to free trade agreements (FTAs). As of 2023, almost 600 bilateral and regional trade agreements have been notified to the WTO, leading to growing fragmentation in trade rules, business activities, and international relations. But until recently, trade dispute settlements have predominantly remained within the WTO.
Challenges with WTO Dispute Settlement
The demise of the Appellate Body increased fragmentation in both the interpretation and enforcement of trade law. A small number of WTO Members created the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA) as a temporary solution, but in its current form, it cannot properly address fragmentation. Since its creation in 2020, the MPIA has only attracted 26 parties, and its rulings have not been consistent with previous decisions made by the Appellate Body, rendering WTO case law increasingly fragmented.
The Path Forward for Global Trade
Maintaining the integrity and predictability of the global trading system while reducing fragmentation requires restoring the WTO’s authority. At the 12th WTO Ministerial Conference in 2022, governments agreed to re-establish a functional dispute settlement system by 2024. Reaching a consensus will be difficult, and negotiations will take time. A critical mass-based, open plurilateral approach provides a viable alternative way to reform the appellate mechanism, as WTO Members are committed to reforming the dispute settlement system.
Source : Fixing fragmentation in the settlement of international trade disputes
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